Sunday, September 29, 2019

Weekly report -- September 28, 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 28, 2019

 

US grain/oilseed prices didn't change much this week and except for spring wheat everything was quite steady with last week --- US spring wheat was up by about USD 9 m/t.

With the rally in spring wheat, the experts are saying that prices are probably overdone and that there could be some lower prices on the way.

 

There is really not much to report for corn as the major harvest is just about to roll out and the weather looks quite good to get things started. The ethanol demand for corn is reported to be a little softer due to a lack of margin in ethanol prices and it is reported that Cargill has shipped some corn from Brazil to the US – with more shipments expected. Looking at the price indications shown below, Brazil doesn't look all that much less expensive than US, but it must work or it wouldn't happen.

 

Good weather for planting in Brazil is said to be affecting soybeans. It is also said that experts feel the USDA stocks report on Monday will show higher levels for soybeans which should keep prices from moving higher but may not be enough to push them lower.

 

Comments in the trade say that Monday's quarterly grain stocks report will show higher stock levels for corn and soybeans with a small drop in wheat stocks.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

 

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$32/33.00

 

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

 

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$38/39.00

 

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$37/38.00

 

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$53/54.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$39/40.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$42/43.00

 

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$52/53.00

 

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$51/52.00

 

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$55/56.00

 

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$56/57.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$19/20.00

 

x

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$40/41.00

 

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$18/19.00

 

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$22/23.00

 

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$17/18.00

 

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$30/31.00

 

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$43/44.00

 

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Down $2.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$52/53.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

 

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$42/43.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$41/42.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$21/23.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$39/40.00

 

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$40/41.00

 

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$41/42.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$30/31.00

 

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$22/23.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$33/34.00

 

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$39/40.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$32/33.00

 

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$44/45.00

 

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $2.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18/18.50

Down $2.00

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$21/21.50

 

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

 

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$73/74.00

Up $3.00

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$70/71.00

Up $3.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Down $3.00

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$22/23.00

Down $10.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Down $2.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$22/22.00

Down $2.00

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$35/36.00

 

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$40/41.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

 

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$29/30.00

 

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$25/26.00

 

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$31/32.00

Down $2.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$40/41.00

 

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

 

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

 

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1857

Down 274

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

3338

Down 614

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1804

Down 209

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

1260

Down 40

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

690

Down 2

X

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 214/217

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 201/204

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 184/185

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 187/190

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 185/188

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 188/191

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 180/183 Dec/Jan

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 181/183

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 175/177

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 166/169 Dec/Jan

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 176/179

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 161/164

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 180/183

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 155/158

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 157/160

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 180/183

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 157/160

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 160/163

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 159/162

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 146/149

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 170/173

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 334/337

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 359/362

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 333/336

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 292/295

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 327/330

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 297/300

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 335/338

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 346/349

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 355/358  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 341/343

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 470/480 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 167/170 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 192/196

X

 

 

 

 

US DDGS prices moved lower this week as supply was greater than demand. The export price is reaching the level where we should see DDGS buyers jump back into the market.

 

With a quiet market this week for corn and soymeal there has not been much excitement in the corn byproduct business --- corn gluten meal prices look steady to perhaps a little lower and the seam is seen for corn gluten feed – just not an exciting week.

 

The US Grains Council DDGS report this week did point out that DDGS prices versus corn are at the lowest level in about three years --- that should get export buyers interested.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 365/385 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 405/425 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 405/415 to Indonesia

 USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia

 no prices

 USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices in Asia seemed a little weaker as supply is overwhelming demand. No one seems to be expecting higher prices for MBM these days as there is just too much for sale from too many origins.

 

The Jacobsen report was saying that Australian poultry meal is fighting hard against lower prices US poultry meal which has brought their prices down by USD 20 m/t or more.

 

Prices for animal protein in the US domestic and export markets don't look to be able to move any higher as supply is certainly keeping a lid on prices. As mentioned above, no one is expecting higher prices.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The rush of business seen last week has slowed as producers have backed off from booking more next season business --- no sense in overselling as they have done in the past then get caught by a lower than expected fishing quotas.

 

Prices are off by about USD 50 m/t for new production with pre-sales steady at about 300,000 m/t. There have even been some good sales to Europe reported – about 50,000 m/t.

 

The talkers and guessers in Peru seem to feel that the next quota will be at about 2.0 million m/t which would yield about 475,000 m/t of fishmeal and leave about 175,000 m/t unsold, assuming that 300,000 m/t have been pre-sold.

 

Fishmeal stocks in China are being used, but slowly, and still stand at record high levels. One trade report this week said hat Chinese fishmeal stocks are at the highest level in 10 years.

 

The JCI China Feed Market Conference was held this week and it was reported that attendance was down this year – could, I suppose, be due to the African Swine Fever (ASF) situation in China. However, according to presentations at the conference, the ASF situation is improving but slowly. With some saying that 2020 will be a much better year.  

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,825

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,365

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,430

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,520

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,800

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1050/1070 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1100/1120 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1150/1170 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1200/1220 m/t

1200/1220

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1250/1270 m/t

1250/1270

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1300/1320 m/t

1300/1320

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1800/1850

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1950/2000

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2000/2200

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon