-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 28, 2019
US grain/oilseed prices didn't change much this week and except for spring wheat everything was quite steady with last week --- US spring wheat was up by about USD 9 m/t.
With the rally in spring wheat, the experts are saying that prices are probably overdone and that there could be some lower prices on the way.
There is really not much to report for corn as the major harvest is just about to roll out and the weather looks quite good to get things started. The ethanol demand for corn is reported to be a little softer due to a lack of margin in ethanol prices and it is reported that Cargill has shipped some corn from Brazil to the US – with more shipments expected. Looking at the price indications shown below, Brazil doesn't look all that much less expensive than US, but it must work or it wouldn't happen.
Good weather for planting in Brazil is said to be affecting soybeans. It is also said that experts feel the USDA stocks report on Monday will show higher levels for soybeans which should keep prices from moving higher but may not be enough to push them lower.
Comments in the trade say that Monday's quarterly grain stocks report will show higher stock levels for corn and soybeans with a small drop in wheat stocks.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 |
| X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 |
| X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 |
| X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/23.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $22/23.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18/18.50 | Down $2.00 | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 | Down $10.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1857 | Down 274 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3338 | Down 614 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1804 | Down 209 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1260 | Down 40 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 690 | Down 2 | X |
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2019
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 214/217 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 201/204 | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/185 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/190 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 185/188 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/191 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 180/183 Dec/Jan | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 181/183 | X |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 175/177 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 166/169 Dec/Jan | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 176/179 | X |
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/164 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 155/158 | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 157/160 | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 180/183 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 157/160 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 160/163 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 159/162 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 146/149 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 170/173 | X |
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 334/337 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 359/362 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 333/336 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 292/295 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 327/330 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 297/300 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 335/338 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 346/349 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 355/358 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 341/343 | X |
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 470/480 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 167/170 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 192/196 | X |
|
|
|
US DDGS prices moved lower this week as supply was greater than demand. The export price is reaching the level where we should see DDGS buyers jump back into the market.
With a quiet market this week for corn and soymeal there has not been much excitement in the corn byproduct business --- corn gluten meal prices look steady to perhaps a little lower and the seam is seen for corn gluten feed – just not an exciting week.
The US Grains Council DDGS report this week did point out that DDGS prices versus corn are at the lowest level in about three years --- that should get export buyers interested.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 365/385 m/t CNF Asia USD 405/425 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 405/415 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia no prices USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia seemed a little weaker as supply is overwhelming demand. No one seems to be expecting higher prices for MBM these days as there is just too much for sale from too many origins.
The Jacobsen report was saying that Australian poultry meal is fighting hard against lower prices US poultry meal which has brought their prices down by USD 20 m/t or more.
Prices for animal protein in the US domestic and export markets don't look to be able to move any higher as supply is certainly keeping a lid on prices. As mentioned above, no one is expecting higher prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The rush of business seen last week has slowed as producers have backed off from booking more next season business --- no sense in overselling as they have done in the past then get caught by a lower than expected fishing quotas.
Prices are off by about USD 50 m/t for new production with pre-sales steady at about 300,000 m/t. There have even been some good sales to Europe reported – about 50,000 m/t.
The talkers and guessers in Peru seem to feel that the next quota will be at about 2.0 million m/t which would yield about 475,000 m/t of fishmeal and leave about 175,000 m/t unsold, assuming that 300,000 m/t have been pre-sold.
Fishmeal stocks in China are being used, but slowly, and still stand at record high levels. One trade report this week said hat Chinese fishmeal stocks are at the highest level in 10 years.
The JCI China Feed Market Conference was held this week and it was reported that attendance was down this year – could, I suppose, be due to the African Swine Fever (ASF) situation in China. However, according to presentations at the conference, the ASF situation is improving but slowly. With some saying that 2020 will be a much better year.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,825 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,365 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,800
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
|
67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
67% protein 150 TVN | 1150/1170 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1200/1220 m/t | 1200/1220 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1250/1270 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1300/1320 |
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon