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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 30, 2021
So, how did we do this week --- well, corn prices in the US moved about USD 12 m/t higher with soybeans up by about USD 7 m/t, soymeal up be close to USD 7 m/t and all US wheat moving higher, especially spring wheat which was up by about USD 15 m/t with winter wheat up by closer to USD 6 m/t.
With the wheat situation in the USA there is concern about slow winter wheat plantings, very low ground water levels and the effect that could have on yields for next year. Spring wheat prices seem to be higher due to the international wheat situation and the possibility of drought in some spring wheat areas in the US – but the planting of spring wheat is a long way away and lots can change by then.
The story with corn seems to be the bullishness in the ethanol business and the rush to buy corn for higher ethanol production. Even with some comments that the USDA may move forecasted corn crop yields higher, the short term corn market seems more bullish than bearish. Perhaps the upcoming USDA WASDE report will change that.
While soybeans and soymeal did have a higher week most of the trade reports are a little bearish on soybean prices and feel that prices could move lower. This will certainly happen if the USDA raises its forecast on soybean crop yields --- watch the WASDE results.
Russia's export taxes will not be changed for the next week --- and then, Russian export tax – November 10 to November 17 – wheat USD 69.90 m/t – up USD 2.90, barley USD 54.80 m/t – up USD 12.20 m/t and corn USD 50.10 m/t – up USD 0.40 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $71/72.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $73/74.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $75/76.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $90/91.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $89/90.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $72/73.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $77/78.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $76/77.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $61/62.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – (no Handisize included) | 3519 | Down 891 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4349 | Down 1858 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3896 | Down 431 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3104 | Down 480 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1972 | Down 89 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2021/January 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 337/342 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 353/356 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 314/320 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 317/326 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 316/323 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 329/333 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 287/290 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 296/301 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 303>>287 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 277/285 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 286/289 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 281/284 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 268>>262 January | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 300>>293 January | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 254/262 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 270/277 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 293/296 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 272/275 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 268/271 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 276/280 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 237/240 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 304/308 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 411>>393 January | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 446>>428 January | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 453/456 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 383>>377 February | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 435/438 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 381>>375 February | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 495/498 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550>>486 February | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 515>>481 February | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 567/575 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 695/705 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/275 m/t | x |
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There were comments in the trade that due to the container and logistics problems producers would much rather sell in the domestic market or in Canada and Mexico as these areas can be reached easily. Domestic prices in the USA for most corn byproducts were a little higher this week while export prices seemed steady.
The trade says that there has not been too much export demand in the last couple of weeks due to high prices and earliest shipments now getting into 2022.
Prices are difficult for buyers with DDGS into Asia seen at at least USD 350 m/t for most destinations with prices for corn gluten meal said to be from USD 800 to 860 m/t CNF. CGM exports are dropping as buyers look more to soymeal to fill the protein gap.
There doesn't look to be much hope these days for lower CNF prices even if US Fob prices slip a little bit --- container freight is still too expensive and too hard to find.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 600/620 m/t CNF China USD 570/610 to Indonesia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Trade reports say that animal protein prices into major markets in Asia were steady this week but looked to want to go higher in smaller markets in Vietnam and Malaysia. Demand remains good in all markets, but shipping is still a difficult problem.
The Jacobsen Report was mentioning that meat and bone meal prices in Australia are moving higher due to historically low slaughter levels. It says that Australian MBM supply could be tight in to 2022.
USA domestic prices continue to slip lower as there is no where for the proteins to go. Exports are very, very difficult and domestic prices are being forced lower just to get the product used in feed rations. USA internal prices are expected to stay soft until the export market opens up again or there is a good rally in vegetable protein prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
New season advanced sales are continuing with the trade now saying that about 130,000 m/t of fishmeal has been pre-sold. The trade is reporting that the IMARPE biomass numbers may be as high as 10.0 million m/t which may lead to a new quota as high as 2.5 mm/t. As usual this is only speculation and rumours.
According to MSI Ceres, all the existing backlog of fishmeal has now been shipped with nothing left to do now but sweep up the warehouses and get ready for the next fishing/processing season --- hopefully that will only be three weeks or so away.
China's fishmeal imports to the end of September are at 1.46 million m/t with 831,000 m/t coming from Peru – 57% of all fishmeal imports. From the Peru point of view, exports to the end of September are at 1.09 million m/t with 917.000 m/t going to China – 84.5% of total exports. All in all, buyers in Asia took just over 1.0 mm/t of Peru fishmeal and are 92.5% of the export business.
China has advised that it will be changing its fishmeal national standards in May 2022 which should mean that there will have to be some changes in the Peru fishmeal industry in order to meet all new or revised requirements.
Peru fishmeal prices remain steady, but this may change once the new quota is announced.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,800 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,920 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1560/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1610/1630 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1660/1680 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1690/1710 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2400/2450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
