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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 27, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Sorry that I am a day late with this week's report. I didn't get back from the European Commodity Exchange event until late Saturday – and the with a devil of a cold. It was much colder in Rouen than I had expected – that is what happens when you live in the warmer south of France.
Other than a little rally in wheat prices on Friday, we had a down week for almost everything, except corn. Corn ended up unchanged on the week while US soybeans were down by about USD 5 m/t and soymeal down by about the same. While most wheat was down by about USD 5 m/t on the week the rally on Friday kept wheat from being down by USD 10 m/t. The rally was said to be somewhat technical as wheat prices hit lows than bounced a little causing futures shorts to be covered. Overall there didn't seem to be any fundamental reason for the rally just futures panic.
Corn was much the same as wheat, prices had been down all week when the rally in wheat prices hit and had some spill over effect on corn prices. Corn had reached the low for two-weeks so perhaps a small rally was due.
There didn't seem to be much reason for soybeans to rally – so they didn't – well they were up a little on Friday but still down on the week. The USDA did announce soybean sale of 260,000 m/t to an unnamed destination, so this perked the market up a little. There has been some talk of quality problems with the soybean crop due to too much rain on pre-harvest soybeans, but most experts say that this is not at all a serious risk to the crop.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA/France --- reports October 26, 2018
| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Corn | 4 | 8 | 20 | 48 | 20 |
| Sorghum | 6 | 11 | 28 | 44 | 11 |
| Soybeans | 3 | 8 | 23 | 48 | 18 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Corn | 49 | 39 | 37 | 47 |
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| Sorghum | 46 | 42 | 46 | 56 |
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| Soybeans | 53 | 38 | 67 | 69 |
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| Wheat, winter | 72 | 65 | 73 | 77 |
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| France
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Corn | 5 | 13 | 24 | 52 | 5 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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| Corn | 91 | 81 | 70 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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| Wheat, winter | 51 | 32 | 58 |
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| Barley, winter | 61 | 44 | 72 |
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@ USDA and AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $32/34.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $35/36.00 | up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1519 | Down 46 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2526 | Up 350 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1583 | Down 206 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1117 | Down 64 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 675 | Up 7 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2018/January 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 215/220 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 233/238 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 219/223 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/234 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 232/236 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 226/228 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 210/214 Jan/Feb 2019 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 213/217 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 233/236 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD no prices | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 238/241 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/164 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 176/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 160/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 165/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 189/195 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 186/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 160/164 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 156/161 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 172/176 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 346/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 371/376 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 363/368 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 326/331 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 361/366 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 337/341 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 321/326 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 378/383 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 402/406 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 347/353 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540>>520 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180>>170 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 189/195 | X |
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The US Grains Council held their Export Exchange event in Minneapolis this week and it is reported that trade teams from across the world were in attendance both at the Exchange and for side trips to US production and export areas – farms, ethanol factories and export ports. The Exchange is said to have been very well supported by the US grain (mainly corn and sorghum) and by-product export trade.
Last week's USDA national price report shows almost no change in the prices for corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal with perhaps just a little weakness in DDGS domestic prices.
Export buying interest is reported to be steady for DDGS and corn gluten meal and a little weak for corn gluten feed – but that is only this week, and one week does not a trend make.
The USGC weekly report commented that export business was slow because all the buyers were at the USGC event in Minneapolis – they could be correct.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 575/520 to Indonesia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Most animal protein export prices into Asia were steady this week but for smaller exporters like New Zealand the increased demand from Indonesia is doing its best to move prices higher. Australian prices are still quite week as exporters try to move some product – trade reports say that Australia may just have to move prices even lower to capture some export business.
Indonesia has long been one of the major export destinations for Australian MBM and as Indonesia is also the major MBM importer in the region, and with Australia not allowed in Indonesia, it is not easy for OZ to replace the business without lowering prices to other possible markets.
In the US both domestic and export prices were quite steady but with supplied boing quite good there has been the feeling that there may be room for US prices to dip lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The feeling in the fishmeal trade is that the next quota in Peru will be at about 2.2 million m/t of catch and that at that level they say there should be no major change in prices ---- current pricing seems to be expecting 2.2 mm/t. Of course, if the quota is up to 2.5million we would expect some price weakness or strength if only at 2.0 mm/t.
The word from the IFFO meeting in Rome was that it was a very good meeting but that little or no new business was concluded – no one much wants to make further buying/selling commitments without knowing the quota.
The expected El Nino event for the Peru fishing areas is expected to be a very mild event with no major effect at all on the fishing situation. At least one report said that the initial phase of the El Nino arrived and left with no one noticing.
Cargill has just announced the opening of their new shrimp feed mill in Ecuador in partnership with Naturisa of Ecuador. Total production will be about 165,000 m/t per year with about 75% being for the shrimp industry. This facilities production represents about 20% of Ecuador's current feed demand.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,770 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,485 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,770 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1260/1280 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1340/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1530/1545 m/t | 1560/1580 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1400/1450 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1550/1600 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1650/1700 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1750/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
