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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 30, 2023
Friday was a strong down day for most everything as the USDA stocks report panicked the market a little or perhaps a lot. One the day corn prices were down by USD 5 m/t, soybeans down by almost USD 10 m/t, US winter and spring wheat down by as much a USD 11 m/t and soymeal down by around USD 15 m/t for nearby.
The entire grain/oilseed trade was surprised by the higher than expected USDA stock levels for soybeans and higher production levels for all wheat. And even though corn prices had been expected to move higher the selling spurt in soybeans and wheat moved corn prices lower.
As the week ended a number of trade reports said that corn prices look to want to move lower although there is an equal number looking for higher corn prices. On average the market feeling seems to be a little bearish on corn prices.
Soybeans and soymeal may have broken out of the bullish long term trend and experts feel that lower prices are probably on the way. The only question is with soymeal prices where export sales have been good, which could keep prices from dropping very much.
Wheat in the US was hit by both higher production levels and higher stocks which certainly knocked the market for six (a cricket term). Wheat looks to be in a long term bearish trend as US and world prices move lower.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$28.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $37.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | Steady | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $31.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $22.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $47.00 | steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $42 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $42 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $49 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $81.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1701 | Up 108 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2474 | Up 391 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1701 | Up 16 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1276 | Down 79 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 679 | Up 9 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1176 | Down 75 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2023/December 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 235/240 | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 295/300 | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235/240 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 240/245 | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 252/255 | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 295>>250 Jan | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/190 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 260/265 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 235>>225 Jan | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 240<<250 Jan | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215<<220 Jan | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220<<225 Jan | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 227/230 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 190/195 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/185 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | No prices | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 470>>465 Jan | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 500>>495 Jan | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>450 Jan | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 455>>445 Jan | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 500/505 | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 500>>495 Jan | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 532>>490 Jan | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/680 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/240 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275>>265 Dec | |
There was quite a drop in DDGS prices this week as ethanol production picked up again and the problems on the Mississippi River improved. DDGS prices in NOLA were said to be down by about USD 15 m/t, mostly due to lower river barge rates.
Corn gluten meal and feed did not see the same price weakness as DDGS probably because most export shipments tend to be by container and not on barges to NOLA.
Lower soymeal prices also put some downward pressure on DDGS and CGM prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
As usual between Peru fishing seasons there is not too much to report .All the weekly trade reports are talking about fishmeal stocks in China and the possible El Nino in Peru --- there is not too much else to talk about.
In its trade report this week MSI Ceres had a long list of questions about the fishmeal business, quotas, El Nino and on and on --- but so far there are no answers to all the outstanding fishmeal questions.
Hopefully, as we get into October there will start to be some answers on the future of fishmeal in Peru up to the end of 2023
.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,165 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,850 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,155 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,155 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,100 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
