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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 22, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
US futures markets are only open for half a day trading on Monday, so market activity will be limited.
Trade reports say that the lack of more soybean sales to China allowed the soybean prices to move lower – no one seems to be too impressed with the 3 million m/t already booked by China. Weekend weather in South America looks quite good with some rain in the dry parts of Brazil with sunshine in the wet parts of Argentina – all very good for the soybean crop.
There was very little happening in the corn market although there was talk of drought in some parts of the US that could affect corn when we get into the planting season, but this is still a long way away.
Reports on the weakness in wheat prices say that it was all due to Russia raising their wheat export forecast. Nothing like more Russian wheat in the international markets to keep prices easy. Some experts were saying that the very large shipments of wheat made by Russia in the past three months would limit further exports --- Russia doesn't agree and looks to export even more.
There may not be a weekly report next weekend – I haven't decided yet – it all depends on what information is available. Many trade services will not publish reports or information again until January and I may just do the same.
If so then see you again in 2019 and wishing all my readers a vey good year. Hopefully not quite as exciting at 2018 both in business and in politics.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
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Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.50/19.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $31/32.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
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Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1279 | Down 122 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1913 | Down 470 | x |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1437 | Down 41 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 977 | Up 3 | x |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 597 | Down 20 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January/March 2019
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 229/233 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 235/239 | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/232 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 238/241 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 234/237 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 239/240 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 204/207 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 221/224 | X |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 238/240 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 198/201 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 238/242 | X |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 168/171 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/195 | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 173/176 | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 177/180 | X |
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 211/214 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/177 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 185/188 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/163 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 175/178 | X |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 344/348 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 369/373 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 323/327 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 361/364 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 324/327 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 341/345 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 356/359 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 347/350 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 630>>610 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 195>>185 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 222/226 | x |
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The trade reports that export business was quiet this week as everyone starts to wind down for the holidays. Prices for all corn by-products were steady but there were reports that container freight rates into Asia had moved higher by USD 3 to 5 m/t.
According to the USDA average prices: corn gluten feed was unchanged on the week and the same with DDGS, but corn gluten meal is said to be about USD 5 m/t higher in US markets.
With corn and soymeal prices both slipping a little lower there is little chance corn by-product prices will move higher --- so we look to be steady to lower into 2019.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 to Indonesia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into Asia are said to be a little lower this week and, according to the Jacobsen Report, it is due to US sellers being very aggressive in the Asia market. Large MBM supplies in the US are keeping export prices low.
Business out of both Australia and New Zealand is said to be very limited this week with everyone well covered for a while and no one getting too excited to buy as we get into the holiday period.
The low US export prices into Asia are going to put pressure on OZ and NZ prices so that, they too, could drop lower.
In the US domestic market, while MBM is overstocked with prices slipping lower, the supplies of both poultry meal and feathermeal can't quite meet the winter demand so prices for those two items look about ready to move a little higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is still reasonable – although it is lower this week due to some mini-bans and perhaps a little bad fishing weather. With a total now up to just under 1.7 mm/t landed it still looks very good for landing the entire quota – probably in early January. With only 400,000 m/t to go this could all get done in only a couple of weeks, even if fishing drops off a little.
Reports from Peru say that export business has picked up with buyers expecting that prices will not be moving much lower – probably due to the good level of sales already booked. It is also reported that some sellers are holding off on new business until we get into January – they don't see any sense in booking business at prices below the market when 2019 prices should be steady to higher.
MSI Ceres was mentioning this week how the African Swine Fever in China is lowering fishmeal demand and that it is expected that local China fishmeal production will be up by 30% -- both factors could shrink China's fishmeal purchases in the first quarter of 2019.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,785 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,795 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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65/66 protein | 1220/1240 m/t |
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67% protein standard steam | 1280/1300 m/t |
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67% protein 150 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1490/1510 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1520/1540 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1570/1590 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1380/1400 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 1550/1600 |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | 1650/1700 |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1750/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon