HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
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There will be no Hammersmith report next weekend – we are taking a few days off for Christmas.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It didn't seem like much of an exciting week in the grain and oilseed business in the US. As the week ended most of the prices, including futures, were at about the same level as the week before. Perhaps everyone was recovering from the USDA WASDE report last week.
The corn crop situation in Argentina doesn't look too bad although, as usual, there are some areas that need rain. Brazil's record corn crop will be arriving shortly and US exporters are trying to crank out as much corn as possible before the buyers all move to South America in hopes of lower priced corn supply.
In the US, the farmers have stopped selling corn and most experts feel that they won't be back in a selling mood until after the new year.
For the moment it looks like corn is working in a trading range – up a little, down a little – which should continue into the start of 2017.
With soybeans, it was also a reasonably quiet week although, on the futures side, the market moved higher on Friday. There was not a great deal of soybean business being done this week but continued good export numbers certainly helped to keep prices from moving lower.
Everyone is watching Brazil for soybeans and it is only a few weeks until we will see the first shipments. The crop estimates for Brazil just keep on getting higher with this year's soybean crop estimated to be close to 10 million m/t higher than last year.
As with corn, some areas of Argentina need rain but it looks like rain for the driest regions could still be a couple of weeks away.
As to prices, the Brazil crop will make prices slip lower but any harvest problem will give a quick rally while the lack of rains in Argentina could push prices higher. In general, it does look that prices will be steady to higher as there doesn't seem to be a great deal of interest in pushing soybean prices lower.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/16.50 | Steady | |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| | | | |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $20/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| | | | |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| | | | |
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| | | | |
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| | | | |
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Corrected | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| | | | |
| Baltic Dry Index | 946 | Down 144 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1048 | Down 527 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1126 | Down 382 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 966 | Down 6 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 600 | Up 33 | x |
| | | | |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2017/March 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 176/179 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 193/196 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/181 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/184 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 181/183 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 173/176 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/171 | x |
| | | |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 155/157 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 155/159 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 157/161 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 185/190 | x |
| | | |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 173/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 183/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 178/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 168/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 162/167 | x |
| | | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 354/357 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 379/382 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 327/331 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 357/360 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 322/326 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 395/399 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 408/412 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 415/419 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 410/420 | x |
| | | |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 690/700 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 147/150 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 164/167 m/t | x |
The corn by-product business was not all that exciting this week with business seeming to be a little slow. According to the USDA price report distillers dried grains prices were steady on the week while corn gluten feed was up by a couple of dollars per ton but they show that corn gluten meal prices were up by about USD 15 ton on the week, after being down USD 20 ton the week prior. So, CGM is back to about where it was two weeks ago.
According to the US Grains Council's weekly report DDGS export buyers are waiting to see if prices will be dropping any lower as they feel that DDGS will move lower in step with corn and soymeal. They also say that exporters of DDGS have been doing their best to keep export prices competitive with the current low corn prices.
The USGC also reports that studies are being made on the use of DDGS in Asian flatbread and Indian naan bread.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia were a little lower this week, at least for USA MBM to the region. As mentioned last week, sellers in Australia and New Zealand are trying to keep prices up due to short supply but low cost MBM from other origins is making higher prices almost impossible.
Feathermeal prices in Asia are said to be a little higher with little actual business being done. It is also reported that poultry meal demand in Asia is picking up and poultry meal prices could increase.
If anyone wonders why the comments about animal proteins tend to be all about Asia, it is because Asia is the main buyer of exported animal proteins from all origins.
In the US, the domestic prices for animal proteins were a little higher as local buyers see all the holidays coming in the next couple of weeks and are in the market to secure supplies for December and into January. The jump in demand has pushed near term prices a little higher but this rally may not hold beyond the holidays as the jump in demand could become a slump in demand come January.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Landings were up strongly this week in Peru with every day over 30,000 m/t and two days going above 40,000 m/t. The total catch, up to the 15th of December, is about 850,000 m/t. One wonders how long this level of fishing will continue – the longer the better.
Prices in Peru are steady this week although there was some business at the top end of the market as Chinese buyers were said to be covering some super prime requirements.
There were comments in the MSI Ceres report this week that the total catch may only reach 1 million m/t or perhaps 1.5 million m/t. There is not a great deal of fishing time left in December – due to all the Christmas and New Year holidays – and fishing in January is normally quite poor. MSI Ceres hopes that the catch will reach 1 million m/t by the end of December (which looks very possible) then, with a few good days in January, 1.5 million m/t shouldn't be too difficult to reach but 2 million m/t looks like it is out of the question.
Now we just have to watch the daily catch numbers and hope that they stay reasonably high and that the fishing bans are few and far between.
One note from Europe – the EU commission voted this week to allow insect protein to be used in aquafeed from July 2017. There is also talk that efforts will be made to get insect protein approved for pig and poultry feed use but this will be further in the future with some experts saying that this cannot happen before 2020.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,565 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,410 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,575 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
| | | |
| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t | |
| 65/66 protein | 1350/1360 m/t | |
| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1450/1470 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| | | |
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 | 1600/1650 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2050 | |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 | |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
