Saturday, June 29, 2019

Weekly Report -- June 29, 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 29, 2019

 

Surprise, surprise from the USDA as corn planting is 3% higher while soybean planting is quite a bit lower than the trade expected, about 5% lower. However, there were few major surprises with wheat.

 

Corn prices dropped by between USD 8 and 10 m/t on increased planting while soybeans were up by about USD 4 on Friday which offset the losses from earlier in the week and left soybean prices close to unchanged. Soymeal prices slipped a couple of dollars m/t on the week. Winter wheat prices dropped by about USD 7 on Friday which offset early week price increases while spring wheat pushed higher by about USD 4 m/t on the week.

 

According to trade reports, corn had its biggest price drop in three years after the USD planting report. Corn futures tried to close at limit down, (USD 0.25 bushel or USD 9.84 m/t) but couldn't quite do it. Once the futures market started lower, the computers got involved and long positions got closed or switched to shorts – and the market dropped lower. Trade reports on Friday are saying that they expect the price for corn to continue lower on Monday.

 

Also, some in the trade feel that the USDA planting numbers are too high and that further drops in corn prices may not be justified – only time will tell.

 

The small rally in soybeans on Friday was totally USDA driven but may not be supported in the long run – after all the USDA soybean stock number is the highest since 1999.

 

Most trade reports on Friday say that the action in wheat prices on Friday was all due to what was happening with corn prices and had little or nothing to do with market fundamentals.

 

Thursday is a holiday in the US – 4th of July – so prices may just do strange things early in the week.  

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $2.00

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $2.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$46/47.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$36/37.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$42/43.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24/25.00

Steady

x

US PNW China: Panamax

$23/24.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$46/47.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$52/53.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

No info

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$16/17.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.00/19.50

Steady

x

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.00/20.50

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$46/47.00

Up $2.00

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$42/43.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$42/43.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

1354

Up 115

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

2488

Up 210

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1286

Up 190

x

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

787

Up 36

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

442

Up 2

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July/September 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 227/230

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 219/222

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 188/191

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 199/202

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 197/200

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 217/220

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 195/198 Dec/Jan

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 182/185

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 186/189

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 180/183 Dec/Jan

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 172/175

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 192/195

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 206/209

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 182/185

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 183/186 Aug/Oct

X

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 208/210

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 186/189

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 178/181

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 187/190  

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 159/162

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 204/207

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 348/351

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 373/376

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 357/360

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 320/323

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 355/358

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 326/329

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 355/358

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 346/349

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 365/368  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 495/505 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 170/175 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 225/228

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After the way the week ended, with the latest USDA information and corn prices falling substantially in Friday, there may be little reason to talk about corn byproducts until we see what next week will do.

 

The trade reports that there was new interest this week in DDGS for July and August but there is not much supply or shipping positions left. There also seems to be a good deal of interest in corn gluten meal for August/September, but buyers have been looking for lower prices --- perhaps now, after the USDA corn crop shock – we may see a little price weakness.

 

Next week is a holiday week in the US – Thursday is a holiday for Independence Day, dating back to 1776. With a holiday weak prices tend to do funny things so next week may not be a good time to buy (or it may be a great time).

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 315/325 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 340/360 to Indonesia

 USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 725/745 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal (MBM) prices moved higher in all major import markets in Asia – some say pushed higher by soymeal prices others say that it is due to demand for pure beef MBM. There doesn't seem to have been any serious change in the supply situation just that buyers may be looking a little more at a higher quality level for a higher price. Australia's export MBM prices moved up a little as did US prices with buyers seeming to be willing to pay an extra USD 10 or so m/t.

 

US domestic prices have been steady this week with little or no market excitement – however, next week we have the US 4th of July holiday and upcoming holidays do tend to move prices a little higher. So. we may see a little more strength in prices from the US this week and we may see buyers still not unhappy with prices a little bit higher.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

So, now we have a full fishing ban in the north of Peru from the 28th of June for 10 days with some trade experts saying that this probably means that the fishing season will be over. The catch to date is just a shade over 1.85 million m/t which leave close to 245,000 m/t to catch, about 56,000 m/t of fishmeal and just over 9,500 m/t of fishoil.

 

With the fishing possibly coming to an end one wonders if the buying interest will leap ahead after a few very slow, dull buying weeks. The trade estimate for unsold stock is at about 60,000 m/t which could be snapped up very quickly by major China buyers and if fishing is over there won't be much more Peru fishmeal before December.

 

You never know but there could still be some fishing in July, but most experts don't think that there could be very much – July is usually a very bad fishing month.

 

Fishmeal consumption in China has been very slow which could mean that an end to fishing in Peru may not cause anyone any shortage problems – after all, China is the main fishmeal buyer. For January to May, China is reported to have imported 678,000 m/t of fishmeal with 58% coming from Peru – Russia, Vietnam, Mauritania and Thailand are the next largest suppliers – about 22% in total.

 

And in closing --- today is Fishermen's Day in Peru – we hope that they all have a great day.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,920

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,515

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,520

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,575

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,930

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1280/1300 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1350/1370 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

1500/1520

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570 m/t

1570/1590

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1600/1620 m/t

1600/1620

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1900/1950

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2000/2050

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2100/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon