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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- October 26, 2024
US corn futures had been higher most of the week but slipped on Friday as the short rally seemed to come to an end. US corn export numbers continue to be very good and US corn is the most competitive in the export market --- not just price competitive but also logistics competitive. US corn can be delivered while Ukraine corn is facing port problems following increased Russian bombing.
Trade reports say that soybeans had a weak Friday for futures due to harvest pressure but add that they don’t look all that much like moving lower. No one seems to have a good reason for the weakness in soymeal futures prices during the week – perhaps just profit taking.
USA wheat prices seem to be following world prices quite closely --- at least the price direction as European wheat prices slipped little lower on the week. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for a major change in wheat prices in the short run – some trade reports say that US wheat prices could just drift lower for now.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
Panamax freight rates are at the lowest level this year for dry-bulk shipments. All rates from South America to Asia moved lower on reduced grain shipment demand. Prices from the US Gulf are firm compared to South American grain freight prices.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $23.00 | Steady | |
$23.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Steady | |
$37.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $53.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $22.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $54.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $40.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $50 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $52 Russia | Ukraine $67 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $19 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $47 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $32 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $18 Russia | Ukraine $25 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $35.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | ||
Baltic Dry Index | 1410 | Down 166 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2276 | Down 420 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1201 | Down 84 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1240 | Down 10 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 728 | Up 1 | |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 3299 | Down 125 | |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2024/January 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 257<<262 Feb | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 255<<260 Feb | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225<<235 Feb | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235<<245 Feb | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235<<240 Feb | |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 245<<250 Feb | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<240 Feb | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 215/220 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 215/220 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 230/235 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210>>205 Feb | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 220<<225 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205>>200 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215<<220 Feb | |
Corn, FOB France | USD 234/237 Spot | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 225<<230 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 215<<220 Feb | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215<<220 Feb | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 250/260 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 235>>240 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 395>>375 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 420>>400 Feb | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 345<<350 Feb | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 435/440 spot | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 350>>340 Feb | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 415>>405 Feb | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 410>>400 Feb | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 430>>405 Feb | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415<<420 Feb | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/570 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 Feb |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Well --- off we go with a new Peru north and central fishing quota at 2,510,000 MT and fishing to start on November 01. This quota could give just over 580,000 m/t of fishmeal. The new quota was announced during the IFFO meeting in Lisbon. This is the highest quota for the period that we have seen in several years.
The first post-announcement bids came in down by about USD 50 m/t but the new business was small as many buyers feel that the large quota will push prices lower. Trade reports say that just over 200,000 m/t of fishmeal looks to be presold ahead of the season.
The next few weeks in the fishmeal business will be determined by the actual catch levels. So, now we can just sit quietly and wait to see the first catch results after November 01. Producers/sellers are also sitting quietly as are buyer --- we are all waiting to see how the fishing goes.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,610 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,115 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | No prices |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,630 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,135 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 | |
67n% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 | 1350/1370 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 | 1400/1420 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1450/1470 | 1450/1470 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | 2,800/3,500 | 3,100/3,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4,500/5,000 | 6,300/6,500 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
