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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- November 16, 2024
Sorry to be a day late with the report this week --- I was longer in Geneva than originally expected.
Corn prices in the US were down by about USD 5 m/t this week while US soybeans weakened by about US 7 m/t and soymeal slipped lower by USD 7 m/t or so. US winter wheat was down by about US 10 m/t while spring wheat dropped by about USD 9 m/t. Certainly seemed to be a down week for prices everywhere --- is this the Trump effect.
While corn was lower in the week it did have a wee rally on Friday as buyers took advantage of the lower prices during the week. Corn export numbers for the week were well below what the trade had estimated, which helped to move corn prices lower. Also, with the US$ gaining strength this does tend to move commodity prices lower.
Soybeans/soymeal also had an up day on Friday but, like corn, could not overcome the lower prices for the week. Also, like corn, the soybean export numbers were below what all the experts had forecasted, which helped to move prices lower. However, on the year to date, soybean sales are still higher than last year by a little. It was also reported that the October soymeal crush was at a record level and up by almost 13% on September’s crush.
Wheat export sales were down by about 17% compared to the four-week export average --- total year wheat exports are still slightly above last year’s numbers.
As was explained in great detail at Global Grain, as the dollar get stronger commodity prices get weaker which is exactly what happened to grains and oilseeds this week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $23.00 | Up $2.00 | |
$23.00 | Up $2.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $43.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $44.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$36.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $45.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $41.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22.00 | Down $3.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $21.00 | Down $3.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $55.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $40.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $41.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $44.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $50 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $67 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $19 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $42 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $39 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $18 Russia | Ukraine $25 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $50.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | ||
Baltic Dry Index | 1785 | Up 290 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3229 | Up 913 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1212 | Up 36 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1019 | Down 60 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 685 | Down 18 | |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 3569 | Down 33 | |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2024/February 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 245<<250 Mar | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 240<<255 Mar | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225<<230 Mar | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230<<235 Mar | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235<<240 Mar | |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 230<<235 Mar | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 215<<230 Mar | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 200/205 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 230/235 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 205 flat Mar | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 220 flat Mar | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205>>200 Mar | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215<<225 Mar | |
Corn, FOB France | USD 226/229 Spot | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 220<<230 Mar | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210<<215 Mar | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210<<215 Mar | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 255/265 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 235<<240 Mar | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 360>>350 Mar | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 385>>375 Mar | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 320<<330 Mar | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 390/400 spot | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 325 Flat Mar | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 405 Flat Mar | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 415>>400 Mar | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 425>>385 Mar | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415<<425 Mar | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 575/585 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 Mar |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
As of November 14, the total catch in the North-Central region is at 511,000 m/t which leaves 1,999,000 m/t on the quota. The average fishmeal yield is at 22% with the fishoil yield average at 1.8% --- therefore fishmeal production is seen at about 114,000 m/t and fishoil at 9,400 m/t.
There is still no new catch reported for the South region of Peru. Total catch stands at 38,500 m/t which leaves about 212,500 m/t on the South region quota.
According to trade reports there was a great deal of buying interest seen from China which has moved prices up by about USD 50 m/t. Trade estimates are that sales are now at about 360.000 m/t for fishmeal. One trade report shows that Super Prime prices for Chinese buyers could be as high as just over $1,600 m/t with a $400 price drop down to standard grade.
Also last week, Canada’s Cooke Inc purchased Peru’s Copeinca --- Copeinca is the largest anchovy fishing/processing firm and is said to represent 21% of the market. Cooke Inc has been active in the North American fishmeal market since 2017.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,575 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,020 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,500 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,610 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,035 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 | |
67n% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 | 1400/1420 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 | 1450/1470 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1500/1520 | 1500/1520 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
