Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- MAY 11, 2024
This week was WASDE week was not a major surprise to the industry although the grain futures markets reacted more than one would expect from the report info.
Looking at the end of the week, corn prices in the US were up by about US$ 4 m/t with soybeans up by US$ 8 m/t and soymeal also up by about US$ 8 m/t. US wheat prices were up strongly with US winter wheat moving as much as US $ 20 m/t higher while US spring wheat was only up by about US $ 4 m/t.
The push higher in wheat prices seems to be due to the lower estimate of the Russian wheat crop by the USDA and the feeling that current crop problems in Russia could lower the production even further.
Corn prices moved higher on increased USDA WASDE corn export estimates and increased ethanol use of corn. The USDA also lowered its estimates of both Brazil and Argentina corn crops which does help to support higher prices.
The USDA WASDE report wasn’t bullish for soybeans and meal but the markets moved higher anyway. Seems that the trade expected South American soybean crops to be lower than the WASDE estimates which pushed prices higher as the trade felt the WASDE was not quite correct on soybeans.
Much of this week’s increase in grain/oilseed prices came before the WASDE was issued so was based more on crop production and use fundamentals rather than a reaction to the new WASDE information. So, we could be looking at higher prices in the coming days, perhaps not for corn but increases seem likely for wheat and soybeans.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady | |
$29.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | New info | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | New info | |
$33.00 | New info | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | New info | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $50.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $50.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $56.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $72.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $43.00 | New info | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | New info | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $44.00 | New info | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | New info | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $50.00 | Up $2,00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $69.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $42.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $19 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $52 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $37 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $26 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $32.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $57.00 | Down $7.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2129 | Up 253 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3292 | Up 619 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1884 | Up 142 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1485 | Up 27 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 703 | Down 26 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 2877 | Up 317 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2024/July 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 255<<260 Aug | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 282<<290 Aug | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215<<220 Aug | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220<<225 Aug | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235<<240 Aug | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 252<<260 Aug | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 270>>260 Aug | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 229/236 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 200<<205 Aug | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225<<235 Aug | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 200>>195 Aug | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220>>205 Aug | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 234<<251 Aug | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 205<<215 Aug | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 195<<205 Aug | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190<<200 Aug | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 250<<260 Aug | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 440>>430 Aug | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 470>>460 Aug | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 425>>415 Aug | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 465/470 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 412>>405 Aug | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 465<<470 Aug | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 440<<445 Aug | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 455<<460 Aug | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 450<<455 Aug | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530/540 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/210 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 195/205 | |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
The catch in Peru this week was lower due to mini-bans but still reached over 250,000 m/t bringing the total so far to 1.28 million m/t which leaves about 1.19 million m/t on the quota. If the weekly catch numbers are able to continue at the current level, then all the quota could be landed by the end of June.
The level of juvenile fish landed is still high but it is dropping --- more mini-fishing bans will be seen in coming days covering areas with high juvenile levels. Peru officials do have a limit of 600,000 m/t of juveniles and when that level is reached fishing can be stopped. Looking at the stats on some trade reports we are not all that far away from 600,000 m/t of juveniles as of this week. It is very possible that high juvenile levels could stop the industry from using the full quota.
Prices are steady but trade reports are saying that they expect Chinese buyers will be bidding lower in coming days due to the good level of fishing seen in Peru. If the full quota is landed that will yield about 550,000 m/t of fishmeal
Trade reports estimate that about 380,000 m/t of fishmeal has been sold against the current quota.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,710 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,890 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,670 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,700 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,835 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1620/1640 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 | 1700/1720 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 | 1750/1770 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,500 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
