Weekly report - April 19, 2014

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   April 19, 2014

 

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SECTION  :  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 

It was a slightly down week for corn prices in the USA this week but a very up week for soybeans and soymeal – especially the old crop stocks. Corn prices did try to move higher for much of the week but just didn't have any success. Even the situation in the Black Sea did not seem to be enough to get corn buyers excited - at least not excited enough to become big buyers in the US. Interesting that soybeans and wheat were much higher on the week but corn did not follow along. Perhaps this means that corn prices could move lower in coming days.

 

Planting of corn in the USA has just started but once the farmers get rolling it can all be done in a very short period of time – so far there is less than 10% planted. The US weather looks very good for planting over the next 10 days or so which is probably helping to keep corn prices weak.

 

It does look like US corn futures are going to have some difficulty keeping prices up where they are which will mean that export prices should also slip lower – unless there is some new bullish news on corn.

 

Old crop soybeans were very strong this week with prices moving up USD 15 to 20 m/t as the tightness in old crop beans just doesn't get any better. US soybean futures were a little lower on Thursday but overall the week was very strong.

 

There is a great deal of concern over the China situation and what will happen with all the soybeans that are on order: will they cancel, will they roll forward or will they just accept shipment. USA soybean exports have dropped in the past couple of weeks and experts say that this is all due to the increased prices and the shortness of supply – makes sense as supply/demand is determining prices for old crop beans.

 

According to trade reports China did cancel as many as 10 shipments of Brazil soybeans. There are still lots of stories of South American soybeans and soymeal heading toward to US which, if correct, will help up all over the current tight supply and should eventually help to keep price increases under control. Nothing like some lower cost imports to stop prices moving higher.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000	$18.00	Steady
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax	$29/31.00	Down $1.00
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT	$35/36.00	Steady
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$30/32.00	Down $1.00
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000	$33/34.00	Steady
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$31/33.00	Down $1.00
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$45/46.00	Down $1.00
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$46/47.00	Steady
US Gulf China: Panamax	$46/47.00	Down $1.00
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$35/37.00	Up $1.00
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t	$26/27.00	Rate corrected
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t	$25/26.00	Rate corrected
France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t	$25.00	Steady
France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$26.00	Steady
France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t	$26.00	Steady
France to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t	$31.00	Steady
France to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 m/t	$38.00	Steady
Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$23.00	Down $1.00
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000	$33/34.00	Down $1.00
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000	$33/34.00	Steady
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$43.00	Steady
Argentina to Spain: 30,000	$33/34.00	Steady
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady
Brazil to Europe	$25.00	Steady
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Steady
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$23/24.00	Steady
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$27/29.00	Steady
Baltic Dry Index	930	Down   72 – 7%
Baltic Capesize Index	1591	Down 198 – 11%
Baltic Panamax Index	812	Up       30 – 3.7%
Baltic Handisize Index	533	Down   23 – 4.1%

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 291>>281 Apr>>Jun	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 341>>334 Apr>>Jun	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 289/296 Apr/Jun	x
Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 290/295 Apr/Jun	x
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 302/305 Apr/Jun	X
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 345/360 May/July	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD no offers	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 259/261 Apr/Jun	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 228/236 Apr/Jun	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 240/247 Apr/Jun	X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 265/270	X

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 231>>226 May/July	X
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 246/249 May/July	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 227>>220 Apr>>Jun	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 221/228 July/Aug new crop	X
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 247/255 May/Jun	X
Corn, FOB France	USD 260/267 Apr/Jun	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  263>>247 Apr/July	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  193/200 Apr/Jun	x

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 596>>560 Apr>>Jun	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 650>>611 Apr>>Jun	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 592>>566 Apr>>Jun	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 525>>506 May>>Jun	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 584>>560 Apr>>Jun	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 524>>490 Apr>>Jun	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 650/660	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 585>>574 Apr>>Jun	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 537>>526  Apr/Jun	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 540>>519 Apr>>Jun	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 601>>590 Apr>>June	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD no offers	x

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   890/900 m/t  May/July	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   210/220 m/t  May/July	X
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   297>>282 m/t May>>July	X
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia	USD   368>>363 m/t May>>July	x

 

The average price for DDGS is lower this week but there was a great deal of variation in the prices available in the US domestic market. Prices delivered to export ports in Nola and on the East Coast were lower while prices to the West Coast moved higher due to rail transport shortages.

 There is still quite a premium to pay for any DDGS supplies for April/May but as buyers get out into the summer months the prices fall off nicely and, according to the US Grains Council report, prices for later in the year are as much as USD 25 m/t below the May 2014 price levels.

 

May/June export positions for DDGS are mostly full but then most export buyers are covered too. All the interest seem to be in the July/Sep time period, where supplies are good and prices are weak.

 

Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed had a down week that week too, even with soymeal up on the week, and the trade says that much of the drop is due to improved transportation situation to export facilities.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia  USD 940/950 m/t CNF Asia  USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 560/580 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 760/780 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 660/680 m/t

 

 

There was really nothing new and exciting in the animal protein business this week – perhaps due to the short week in many countries due to the Easter holidays. Traders in Australia say that their prices should be moving higher in coming weeks as the slaughter tends to drop off in the winter months and supplies get more limited. There has been no change in USA export prices for animal protein but the market says that buyers in Indonesia have lowered their bids but no one seems to have done any business at lower prices.

 

Traders in the USA are saying that domestic prices should move lower in coming weeks and this could cause a drop in export prices as supply builds quicker than demand. With the seasons being the opposite of Australia, the supply builds in the US as it is falling in OZ/NZ.

 

There are still stories from South American exporters over the lack of new business to Vietnam and Bangladesh – two major markets for Argentina/Paraguay exporters. Perhaps lower priced European product is covering the market.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

There has still been no announcement on the new Peru fishing quota with everyone expecting that it will be announced as soon as the Easter holidays are over. Peru is back to work again on Monday after being closed for Thursday and Friday. So, perhaps on Monday we will know everything.

 

Fishing in the south of Peru has had its best week yet with a total catch getting up close to 60,000 m/t which adds about 15,000 m/t of fishmeal to the very limited stocks.

 

Trade reports say that the sales against the new fishing season are up just over 100,000 m/t but most buyers are holding off due to questions on both the quota amount and the fishmeal business in China. Local China prices are currently below replacement price levels and no one is very certain about what will happen to prices when the quota is announced or what the Chinese buyers will do. Of course China is going to buy but the question is what quantity and where will they be bidding.

 

Most of the major fishmeal people will be in London the first week of May for the IFFO member's meeting so there could be quite a bit of action between meetings as buyers and sellers negotiate over the new supply. Since I am not an IFFO member I will not be attending. I suppose that I could go to London and lurk in the halls to talk to people but I am not much good at lurking.

 

So, next week will be an exciting week in the Peruvian fishmeal business.

   

 

 

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	1450/1470 m/t
65/66 protein	1500/1520 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1540/1560 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1560/1580 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1620/1640 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	1950/2000
Fish oil, crude drums	2150/2200
Fish oil, flexi tank	2100/2150
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2600/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon