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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 02, 2022
Changes in the situation in the Ukraine continue to be the major factor on world grain prices this week. Russian attacks on Ukraine grain storage facilities has not helped calm the market.
Corn prices for old crop corn were lower by USD 4 to 7 m/t but new crop was higher as concerns over how much corn will be planted in the US pushed prices up a little. Soybeans and soymeal were bot down by as much as USD 40 m/t in nearby positions --- much of this was due to increased soybean plantings in the USA and possible lower buying by China.
Comments in the trade as the week ended were that talks between Ukraine and Russia could show some progress and this alone helped to move wheat prices lower.
Grain prices probably did get a little too high after the invasion of Ukraine and are now moving back a little into sort of reasonable price levels but, it won't take much to get wheat and corn prices rushing higher again. Not so much risk with soybeans/soymeal, as neither Ukraine nor Russia are major exporters on soybeans/soymeal but with Ukraine being a major supplier of sunmeal and sunoil there can easily be spill over effects in other oilseed markets.
We are going to continue to see volatility in grain, oilseed and protein meal markets for weeks and even if the Ukraine situation does calm down it will take many months, perhaps years, to get the export infrastructure back into 100% working condition.
April 06 to April 12, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 96.10 m/t – up USD 9.10, barley USD 75.40 m/t – down USD 0.20 m/t and corn USD 65.80 m/t – up USD 7.50 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $71/72.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $71/72.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $73/74.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $58/59.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $86/87.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $86/87.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $25/26.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $34/35.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $33/34.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Updated |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Updated |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2357 | Down 187 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1864 | Down 13 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 3073 | Down 340 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2755 | Down 265 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1695 | Down 87 |
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| Global Container Index | 9416 | Down 14 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2022/June 2022
Russia and Ukraine price indications are about the best trade estimates available but are still only estimates not actual prices.
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 413>>398 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 446>>439 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 380>>335 July ???? |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 385>>345 July ???? |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 410>>345 July |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 423>>363 July |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 375/390 July |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 386>>325 July |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 417>>400 July |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 375>>295 July |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 355/360 ???? |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 340/350 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 331>>325 July |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 360>>350 July |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 300>>285 July |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 350>>310 July |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 387>>350 July |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 385>>355 July |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 380>>360 July ???? |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 380>>360 July ???? |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 295/300 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 423>>407 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 560>>550 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 590>>580 July |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 590/595 Apr/May |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 536>>513 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 590/595 Apr/May |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 540>>515 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 640>>630 July |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 640>>635 July |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 640/645 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 665>>655 July ???? |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 855>>845 m/t July |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 370>>365 m/t July |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 420>>390 m/t July |
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As with most every grain and oilseed, the prices for corn byproducts did drop back a little this week --- most of the price change was just a reaction to the grain prices as there was not much fundamental market information to change byproduct prices.
DDGS prices will be moving lower as we go through April since all the ethanol facilities are getting back to work after spring maintenance which should increase the DDGS supply.
USA domestic freight costs are also lower this week which is helping the FOB port prices to slip a little. Booking byproducts out in the future a few weeks is the best bet for export buyers as saving of USD 10 to 30 m/t can be seen.
Unfortunately, while FOB USA prices may be lower CNF prices in containers are a little higher with the US Grains Council showing container freight up by about USD 7 m/t.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The total catch in the South of Peru is now up to 119,000 m/t, leaving 367,000 m/t to full quota. Fishmeal production is estimated at 26,000 m/t with fishoil at 2,700 m/t.
Quiet, quiet, quiet seems to be the way of the fishmeal business these days as both buyers and sellers wait to hear about the next fishing quota and wonder what the container freight rate will be like come May/June/July.
There has been some comment that producers are increasing their prices but, since most buyers have pre-booked as much fishmeal as they want, it is difficult to get higher prices to hold.
MSI Ceres was mentioning this week how very bad the container shipping from Peru has been and to top it off Peru had a transport strike which closed off main transport routes which blocked trucks from entering and leaving ports. Why not have a strike just to mess up the system even more.
The trade in Peru seems to feel that the next fishing quota will be set at 2.5 million m/t or perhaps 2.7 mm/t (quoting MSI Ceres) but the are some wild eyed pundits forecasting 3.0 mm/t.
Now that we are into the start of April, it won't be too long until we learn about the new quota, and we can fuel up our vessels and get fishing.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,025 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,710 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New season prices
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1720/1740 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1770/1790 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3200/3300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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