Saturday, October 04, 2025

Hammersmith Report --- October 04, 2025

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

St Remy De Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT – October 04, 2025

 

It was a quiet week this week for some items --- corn prices were about unchanged for the

Week, wheat prices were up by about USD 3 m/t and even soybean prices were only up by about USD 2 m/t and about the same for soymeal --- just a quiet pre-WASDE week.

 

It looks like the trade forecasting services are lowering their estimates of the corn yields for the current harvest. The feeling is that a lack of late rainfall and hot temperatures could bring corn yields down. Even with slightly lower yields we would still have a record corn crop.

 

Soybean prices don’t seem to know what to do --- will see a solution to the China problem or will the government announce a giant aid program for soybean farmers ---- an aid program seems to be the most expected with news expected next Tuesday.

 

Wheat prices did very little this week but US wheat still must face very large wheat supplies in international markets ---- every producing/exporting nation seems to have record or near record supplies of wheat this year. No one is talking about seriously higher wheat prices.

 

The US dollar continues to be in the doldrums, moving a little lower again this week.

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$27.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$27.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$44.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$44.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$45.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$40.00

Up $2.00

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$47.00

Up $1.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Bangladesh: Panamax

$66.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Vietnam: Panamax

$51.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$57.00

Steady

US Gulf China: Panamax

$56.00

Steady

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$42.00

Steady

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Bangladesh: Panamax

$48.00

Down $2.00

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Vietnam: Panamax

$28.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$30.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$29.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Steady

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$63.00

Steady

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$33.00

Steady

France/Germany to Bangladesh 40,000 m/t

$54.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$41.00

Up $2.00

France/Germany to India: Panamax

$42.00

Up $2.00

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$35.00

Down $1.00

France/Germany to Jordan: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$43.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$44.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$62.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$42.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$41.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$44.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$44 Russia

Ukraine $57

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $64

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$21 Russia

Ukraine $34

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$21 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$28 Russia

Ukraine $26

Black Sea to East Spain -- Panamax

$23 Russia

Ukraine $18

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$28 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$27 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$24 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$28 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$42 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$12 Russia

Ukraine $27

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Bangladesh - Panamax

$44 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$53.00

Up $6.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$74.00

Up $7.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

40% Capesize, 30% Panamax, 30% Supermax

1901

Down 358

Baltic Capesize Index

2724

Down 903

Baltic Panamax Index

1662

Down 170

Baltic Supramax Index

1447

Down 32

Baltic Handisize Index

868

Up 27

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

1613

Down 347

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2025/December 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 228<<232 Jan

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 229<<235 Jan   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Jan

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Jan

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 235<<240 Jan   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 228/231 spot      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 215<<220 Jan

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 215<<220 Jan     

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 235/240

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 200<<205 Jan

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 205<<210 Jan  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 200<<205 Jan   

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 205<<210 Jan

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 221/224 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 225<<230 Jan

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 210<<215 Jan

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Jan

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 195<<205 Jan

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 195<<200 Jan

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 325>>320 Jan  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 355>>350 Jan  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 300<<310 Jan   

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 305<<315 Jan

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 405<<415 Jan

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 410<<415 Jan

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 450>>415 Jan

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 410<<415 Jan

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 570>>565 Dec

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225>>220 Dec

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225>>220 Dec

 

A couple of readers asked me this week why it is that the weekly report no longer shows any information about animal protein --- meat and bone meal, poultry meal, feather meal, etc. The reason is that it became next to impossible to find reasonably accurate indication prices for these items without incurring high costs for information subscriptions. Can’t justify the added costs for a free report.

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Still no catch in the South Region of Peru due to bad weather.

 

The IMARPE Research Cruise is said to be going well with the results expected in early November and the new quota for North/Central Region shortly thereafter.

 

Chinese buyers are on holidays which has made the market very quiet this past week.

 

Advanced sales for the next fishing season are now seen as up to 140,000 m/t.

 

Trade reports suggest that there will be a great deal of demand for the new crop fishmeal with buyers just sitting and waiting to jump into the market ---- this would seem to suggest steady to higher fishmeal prices, no matter what fishing quota is set.

 

Peru is reported to be introducing new quality grade levels for export fishmeal due to the shortage of Super Prime and Prime grades. Two new 66% grades have been announced both with 120 TVN also there is a new 65% grade (Prime 65) with 120 TVN.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Sorry, updated prices are not available this week.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

$1760

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

$2450

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

$1750

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

$1890

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

$2520

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

Next fishing season

 

   65% protein standard steam

1610/1630

 

   66% protein 120 TVN

1700/1720

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1670/1690

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1720/1740

No prices

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1770/1800

1770/1790

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1850/1870

1820/1840

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade

2500/2800

2300/2400

   Fish oil, crude in drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

3200/3400

3400/3500

 

INFORMATION:  TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon