Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
I was in Kiev this week for the "Ukraine Grain Congress –2013" and found it to be a very informative conference, at least from the government point of view. The conference was quite well attended overall but very poorly attended by the local grain trade or for that matter by the international grain trade. It looks like there are just too many grain conferences about Black Sea grain this year and it is certainly too expensive to attend them all.
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Not a great deal of price movement in corn this week. Perhaps this is because buyers and sellers are still missing the regular USDA reports. At least they are all catching up a little at a time and it looks like by next week most everything normally issued weekly will be back up on schedule. It is amazing how much we all count on grain reports from various governments – not just from the USA but also from all the major producing/exporting countries. I certainly miss the reports from the EU if they happen to be closed on a normal reporting day. Ah well, c'est la vie.
So, corn was very quiet this week with cash buyers bidding below the market while sellers were trying to keep the prices up. The big concern with corn at present is the very large short positions held by some traders and what could happen if the USDA WASDE report in November is a little bullish. Needless to say the shorts are looking for a USDA report that will push prices lower but that is certainly not guaranteed, even though a number of private reports seem to favor higher yields and lower prices. We will just have to wait until November 8th to see what the USDA has to say.
In the meantime, some experts seem to feel that corn is due for a rally since prices don't seem to want to go lower but any rally will probably be limited in size and quite short term as almost everyone is looking for a fantastic corn crop and weak prices.
Soybeans and soymeal were up a little on the week but not a huge amount. The soybean market is feeling the normal harvest pressure and with the harvest moving along nicely in most areas it is very hard to see any good reason for much of a rally in soybean prices.
For the time being it looks like soybean prices are going to find it difficult to move above current levels and we will probably see a trading range for the next few days as we get closer to the USDA WASDE report on the 8th. Once we see the report and the new price trend is set (at least until the next report) then most eyes will turn to Argentina and Brazil for new price trends and the South American weather will once again become the main concern.
FOB port or location specified.. Prices in US$.. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 291/296 Nov/Jan |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 332/336 Nov/Jan |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000+ m/t | USD 266/277 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 283/285 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 350/353 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 242/245 |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 190/205 |
| | |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 256/258 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/230 Jan/Feb new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea – 30,000+ | USD 240/245 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 209>>204 Dec>>Jan |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 226>>224 Nov>>Jan |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 213/219 Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 191/196 Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000+ m/t | USD 198>>192 Spot>>Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 248/251 Oct/Nov |
| | |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 232/234 Nov/Jan |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 192/198 Nov/Jan |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 560>>543 Nov>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 615>>588 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 590>>565 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 543/546 Nov/Dec |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 587>>553 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 535/539 Nov/Dec |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 530/540 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 730/740 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/230 m/t |
| | |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300>>290 m/t Nov>>Jan |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 346/352 Nov/Jan |
The FOB prices for corn by-products are up again this week and it seems that much of the reason is due to the harvest pressure on transportation logistics. Everyone is fighting for shipping space to try to get their grains and by-products to an export price and this is pushing up the FOB port prices. The FOB prices have moved up more than domestic prices due to the extra cost of getting the product to the export ports.
As was reported last week, there is very little new buyer export interest in 2013 shipments as the price spread is just too high for buyers – not just for logistic but also for limited available supply in nearby positions.
Asian buyers are still active in the DDGS market but they all seem to be looking at the first quarter of 2014 for shipment. According to this weeks US Grains Council report there are large arrivals of DDGS expected for China in the next few weeks and this will keep the Chinese buyers out of the nearby market.
Producers of by-product are reported to have been quite active in the corn market recently as corn prices are very attractive and their margins are good – even ethanol producers are reported to have good margins on these lower corn prices.
Prices should follow corn prices, lower or higher, but the squeeze on transport to export ports may keep the FOB prices higher than one would expect.
USA corn by-product exports – Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t
Major importing countries
| | Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS | Corn gluten feed | Corn gluten meal |
| China | 2,291,000 | | |
| Mexico | 821,700 | | 51,800 |
| Chile | | | 80,500 |
| Canada | 356,600 | 22,200 | 39,900 |
| Columbia | | | 46,800 |
| Malaysia | | | 48,900 |
| Japan | 271,800 | | 27,700 |
| Vietnam | 267,400 | | 20,400 |
| South Korea | 268,500 | 27,700 | |
| Israel | 103,600 | 107,800 | 20,100 |
| Thailand | 171,700 | | 22,600 |
| Taiwan | 155,700 | | 22,700 |
| Turkey | 223,900 | 110,200 | |
| Indonesia | 148,200 | | 185,000 |
| Ireland | 145,700 | 216,000 | |
| Egypt | 97,300 | 25,100 | 91,400 |
| Morocco | 92,900 | 41,700 | |
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD sorry no updated prices this week |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD |
| Europe MBM 50 protein | USD |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 480/500 mt CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 410/430 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 550/570 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 500/520 m/t |
It seems to have been a very slow week for animal proteins as there has really been very little in the way of reported sales from the USA in either the domestic of export markets but, on the other hand the animal protein market in Asia seems to just want to keep going lower and lower. It looks like there is currently just too much supply and too little demand and sellers are fighting each other for every speck of business.
Vegetable protein prices were not down this week so you cant blame to fall in prices on that, so it just looks like it is currently just an excess supply situation in Asia combined with a weak US dollar that are making prices dip.
If the domestic demand in the USA was to pick up this would push export prices a little higher and will slow or stop the drop in prices in Asia but it is said that both Australia and New Zealand have very good stocks of animal proteins so this may keep prices down for a while longer.
USA export sales and shipments Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t
| | Feathermeal | Meat and bone meal – Including pork and Poultry meal |
| Indonesia | 78,900 | 36,200 |
| Chile | 36,700 | |
| Canada | 4,900 | |
| Vietnam | 4,300 | |
| Mexico | | 22,100 |
| Canada | | 29,600 |
| Philippines | | 24,900 |
| China | | 15,100 |
| Thailand | | 10,900 |
| Netherlands | | 3,600 |
| Ecuador | | 4,980 |
| Guatemala | | 8,105 |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is really nothing to say about fishmeal this week – all the major players are at the IFFO meeting where they are doing all their wheeling and dealing behind closed doors and all of us poor folks not behind the doors will have to wait for a week or so to get some idea of what, if anything, has been newly booked for the upcoming Peru fishing season.
The prices this week are exactly the same as last week. None of the traders have anything to say and there aren't even any interesting rumours or stories to report. Hopefully there will be much more to say next week but then, it may just be very quiet until the new fishing season begins.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| 65 protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1330/1340 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1360/1380 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2000/2050 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 1950/2000 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
