Weekly report Oct 27, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   October 27, 2013

                                                                       

 

 

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Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

I was in Kiev this week for the "Ukraine Grain Congress –2013" and found it to be a very informative conference, at least from the government point of view. The conference was quite well attended overall but very poorly attended by the local grain trade or for that matter by the international grain trade.  It looks like there are just too many grain conferences about Black Sea grain this year and it is certainly too expensive to attend them all.

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Not a great deal of price movement in corn this week. Perhaps this is because buyers and sellers are still missing the regular USDA reports.  At least they are all catching up a little at a time and it looks like by next week most everything normally issued weekly will be back up on schedule. It is amazing how much we all count on grain reports from various governments – not just from the USA but also from all the major producing/exporting countries.  I certainly miss the reports from the EU if they happen to be closed on a normal reporting day. Ah well, c'est la vie.

 

So, corn was very quiet this week with cash buyers bidding below the market while sellers were trying to keep the prices up.  The big concern with corn at present is the very large short positions held by some traders and what could happen if the USDA WASDE report in November is a little  bullish.  Needless to say the shorts are looking for a USDA report that will push prices lower but that is certainly not guaranteed, even though a number of private reports seem to favor higher yields and lower prices.  We will just have to wait until November 8^th to see what the USDA has to say.

 

In the meantime, some experts seem to feel that corn is due for a rally since prices don't seem to want to go lower but any rally will probably be limited in size and quite short term as almost everyone is looking for a fantastic corn crop and weak prices.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were up a little on the week but not a huge amount.  The soybean market is feeling the normal harvest pressure and with the harvest moving along nicely in most areas it is very hard to see any good reason for much of a rally in soybean prices.

 

For the time being it looks like soybean prices are going to find it difficult to move above current levels and we will probably see a trading range for the next few days as we get closer to the USDA WASDE report on the 8^th.  Once we see the report and the new price trend is set (at least until the next report) then most eyes will turn to Argentina and Brazil for new price trends and the South American weather will once again become the main concern.

 

    

FOB port or location specified.. Prices in US$.. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 291/296 Nov/Jan
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 332/336 Nov/Jan
Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000+ m/t	USD 266/277
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 283/285
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 350/353 Dec/Jan new crop
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 242/245
Wheat bran, Black Sea	USD 190/205
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 256/258
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/230 Jan/Feb new crop
Barley, feed, Black Sea – 30,000+	USD 240/245
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 250/255

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 209>>204 Dec>>Jan
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 226>>224 Nov>>Jan
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 213/219 Nov/Dec
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 191/196 Nov/Dec
Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000+ m/t	USD 198>>192 Spot>>Nov/Dec
Corn, FOB France	USD 248/251 Oct/Nov
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  232/234 Nov/Jan
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  192/198 Nov/Jan

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 560>>543 Nov>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 615>>588 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 590>>565 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 543/546 Nov/Dec
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 587>>553 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 535/539 Nov/Dec
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 530/540

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   730/740 m/t
Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   220/230 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   300>>290 m/t Nov>>Jan
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia	USD   346/352 Nov/Jan

 

 

The FOB prices for corn by-products are up again this week and it seems that much of the reason is due to the harvest pressure on transportation logistics.  Everyone is fighting for shipping space to try to get their grains and by-products to an export price and this is pushing up the FOB port prices.  The FOB prices have moved up more than domestic prices due to the extra cost of getting the product to the export ports.

 

As was reported last week, there is very little new buyer export interest in 2013 shipments as the price spread is just too high for buyers – not just for logistic but also for limited available supply in nearby positions. 

 

Asian buyers are still active in the DDGS market but they all seem to be looking at the first quarter of 2014 for shipment.  According to this weeks US Grains Council report there are large arrivals of DDGS expected for China in the next few weeks and this will keep the Chinese buyers out of the nearby market.

 

Producers of by-product are reported to have been quite active in the corn market recently as corn prices are very attractive and their margins are good – even ethanol producers are reported to have good margins on these lower corn prices.

 

Prices should follow corn prices, lower or higher, but the squeeze on transport to export ports may keep the FOB prices higher than one would expect.

 

 

USA corn by-product exports – Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t

 

Major importing countries

 

	Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS	Corn gluten feed	Corn gluten meal
China	2,291,000
Mexico	821,700		51,800
Chile			80,500
Canada	356,600	22,200	39,900
Columbia			46,800
Malaysia			48,900
Japan	271,800		27,700
Vietnam	267,400		20,400
South Korea	268,500	27,700
Israel	103,600	107,800	20,100
Thailand	171,700		22,600
Taiwan	155,700		22,700
Turkey	223,900	110,200
Indonesia	148,200		185,000
Ireland	145,700	216,000
Egypt	97,300	25,100	91,400
Morocco	92,900	41,700

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD  sorry no updated prices this week
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD
Europe MBM 50 protein	USD
Australian MBM 45 protein  Australian MBM 50 protein  Australian Feathermeal  Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 480/500 mt CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein  USA Feathermeal, 80 protein  USA Poultry Meal, feed grade  USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800  m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 410/430 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 550/570 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 500/520 m/t

 

 

It seems to have been a very slow week for animal proteins as there has really been very little in the way of reported sales from the USA in either the domestic of export markets but, on the other hand the animal protein market in Asia seems to just want to keep going lower and lower.  It looks like there is currently just too much supply and too little demand and sellers are fighting each other for every speck of business.

 

Vegetable protein prices were not down this week so you cant blame to fall in prices on that, so it just looks like it is currently just an excess supply situation in Asia combined with a weak US dollar that are making prices dip.

 

If the domestic demand in the USA was to pick up this would push export prices a little higher and will slow or stop the drop in prices in Asia but it is said that both Australia and New Zealand have very good stocks of animal proteins so this may keep prices down for a while longer.

 

 

USA export sales and shipments Jan/Aug 2013 in m/t

 

	Feathermeal	Meat and bone meal – Including pork and Poultry meal
Indonesia	78,900	36,200
Chile	36,700
Canada	4,900
Vietnam	4,300
Mexico		22,100
Canada		29,600
Philippines		24,900
China		15,100
Thailand		10,900
Netherlands		3,600
Ecuador		4,980
Guatemala		8,105

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There is really nothing to say about fishmeal this week – all the major players are at the IFFO meeting where they are doing all their wheeling and dealing behind closed doors and all of us poor folks not behind the doors will have to wait for a week or so to get some idea of what, if anything, has been newly booked for the upcoming Peru fishing season.

 

The prices this week are exactly the same as last week.  None of the traders have anything to say and there aren't even any interesting rumours or stories to report.  Hopefully there will be much more to say next week but then, it may just be very quiet until the new fishing season begins.

  

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	1300/1310 m/t
65/66 protein	1330/1340 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1360/1380 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1380/1400 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1400/1410 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1430/1450 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1450/1470 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	1800/1850
Fish oil – crude drums	2000/2050
Fish oil – flexitank	1950/2000
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon