Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 18, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
While last week's USDA report was just a little bullish for corn, the actual market prices just don't want to work any higher this week. Even an exciting new sale to Egypt didn't do anything to get the market excited. According to most trade reports, much of the softness in corn prices is due to the weather in Argentina and how good things seem to be for the 2014 Argentina corn crop.
It was interesting to note in the shipping trade that the government of Ukraine is considering buying its own fleet of bulk grain vessels that could be paid for with Chinese loans or through sales of corn to China….this could be very interesting. Speaking of China, so far there seems to be no solution to the MIR162 GMO problem but you can bet that there are certainly a large number of people working on finding a quick solution.
Informa projects that the 2014 USA corn plantings may be down a tad from last year this is not at all a surprise as farmers are expected to move more into soybeans.
For now, with everything looking bearish for corn, there seems to be no good reason to expect a major rally in prices …..as long as the weather is good in South America.
We had another strong week for soybeans and soymeal, even though futures slipped a little on Friday. The soybean crop in Argentina does not seem to be doing quite as well as the corn crop with worries about very high temperatures and a lack of rain. However, things are expected to improve in Argentina next week.
The two big questions for soybeans are: when will China stop buying every soybean in sight and what will the USA farmers decide on planting corn or soybeans. The experts are a little unsure on which way the USA plantings will go with some favoring an increase in soybeans while others expect that corn plantings will increase….impossible to know as yet.
So, like for corn, we all need to watch the South American weather and the Chinese purchases to know what will happen in the next few weeks.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The drop in Capesize prices continues to drag the BDI lower on a weekly basis but, as usual, the drop in prices for common grain sized vessels is very limited.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $24.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $46/48.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $45/47.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $41/42.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $55/57.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t | $30/32.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $28/30.00 | Down $3.00 |
| France to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $27.00 |
|
| France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t | $35.00 |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 | $40.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 | $42/40.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $50.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $45.00 | Down $4.00 |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $28/30.00 | Down $5.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $5.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $35/38.00 | Down $5.00 |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1421 | Down 91 – 6.0% |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1929 | Down 172 – 8.2% |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1571 | Down 51 – 3.1% |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 722 | Down 8 – 1.1% |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 264>>254 Jan/Mar |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 288>>283 Jan/Mar |
| Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/288 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 263/266 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 318/326 Feb>>Apr |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 245/250 |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD no prices |
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 234/236 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 222/227 Feb/Mar |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 240/245 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 245/250 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 208>>197 Jan>>Mar |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225>>219 Jan>>Mar |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 198/202 March/May new crop |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/192 June new crop |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 206/210 Spot/Mar |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 241/247 Jan/Mar |
|
|
|
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 232/235 Jan/Mar |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 185/188 Feb/Mar |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 561>>539 Jan>>Mar 2014 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 590>>569 Spot>>Mar 2014 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 586>>563 Spot>>Mar 2014 |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 530>>512 Feb/Mar |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 590>>538 Spot>>Mar 2014 |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 533>>497 Jan/Mar |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 570/580 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 558>>532 Jan/Mar |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 490/495 new crop May 2014 |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 579>>529 Jan>>Mar |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 500/510 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 750/760 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 m/t |
|
|
|
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 274>>265 m/t Jan>>Mar |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 350>>340 m/t Jan>>Mar |
The USA export DDGS trade says that the drop in recent prices due to the China situation has stopped and that everything seems to be back to about normal. Except perhaps the production of ethanol that seems to have tailed off a little and may make DDGS supply a little tighter in coming weeks. It is also reported that there are good export demands for DDGS from Asia and that there is certainly no weakness in prices this week.
One thing that could change the situation a little is the switch of Egypt corn purchases to the USA as Black Sea corn prices move higher. With shipments of corn from the USA to Egypt once again then the importers will be able to go back to combo shipments of corn, DDGS and corn gluten meal. Not that Egypt's imports of corn by-products had dropped off just that it will now be much easier to ship part cargoes.
With USA corn prices just moving around a little with no major changes, the same is seen with corn by-products, so it looks like steady prices for now that is unless there is a sudden change in the China GM situation.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe MBM, 50 protein Europe Poultry meal, 65 protein Europe Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD no prices USD no prices USD no prices |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/880 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 490/510 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 630/650 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 560/580 m/t |
NOTE: As of the end of January 2014, this report will no longer cover any animal protein prices and news. I had mentioned a few weeks ago how difficult it had become to obtain accurate information on a regular basis and I had hoped that I had overcome the problem but now it seems that this has not worked out as planned. Therefore the coverage of animal proteins will be discontinued.
This week there has been little or no change in animal protein export prices but the jump in soymeal prices had allowed animal proteins to be a little more competitive. However, overall the animal protein business seems to be a little slow and sellers are having to go hunting for some good business.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Not much left on the quota in Peru and very few vessels out at sea since all the big players have finished their allocation and only the little guys left to finish things off. There is still just over 80,000 m/t left to catch but time is getting short and daily catch is very limited. Perhaps there will be 50,000 m/t or so uncaught when the month ends. Even so, it is a small portion of the overall quota. Actually, depending on which report you read, the balance is either 40,000 m/t or 80,000 m/t still to go.
Current unsold stocks on hand in Peru are estimated at around 110,000 m/t and weekly new sales are said to be running at just over 20,000 m/t --- so looks like only just over one month's sales left on hand.
There has been quite a bit in the news in Peru this week about how the Chinese are looking to buy a couple of more Peruvian producers in order to better control their supply. Why not, since China is over 60% of the consumption of Peruvian fishmeal.
Looking at the stocks situation and the remaining fishing to be done there seems to be no reason at all to expect prices to go any lower. Between now and next fishing season, fishmeal prices should move higher as supply gets more and more difficult to source.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 1320/1330 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1340/1350 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1360/1370 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1380/1390 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1430/1440 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t |
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2550 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.