Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 15, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Corporate Services (Bahamas) Limited, Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce,
One Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The USDA WASDE report that was issued last Monday was a little bit bullish for corn and a little bearish for soybeans but the market, at least the futures, reacted much stronger than the report seemed to need. The problem on the futures side of things, especially with soybean and soymeal, was that the investment funds were very long soybeans in expectation of higher prices and a bullish report, so, when that did not happen, many of those longs decided to liquidate to cut their losses which just piled up and pushed futures prices lower. And, as we all know, where futures prices go so do cash prices and for beans and meal that was lower.
On the corn side of things the market was reasonably calm this week but it may have been feeling the effect of the situation in the Ukraine which may have kept US prices from sliding down like soybeans.
Most everything that you read on corn this week says that the major factor for near-term corn prices will be the Black Sea situation and with the Ukraine holding stocks of over 8 million m/t of corn the future of corn exports is very important. Looking at the actual shipment numbers from the Ukraine, corn export levels are still quite good with close to 1.2 million m/t of corn shipped so far in March and March is a slow export month.
We do have the USDA stocks report and planting ideas coming up shortly and the investment funds continue to be very, very long corn, so there is still a great deal of chance of corn market volatility in coming days.
Nearby soybean prices were down by almost USD 30 m/t – form sky-high levels – while spring and summer prices were also down by USD 20 to 25 m/t – much of this is due to the US prices having to fall in line with the much lower prices from South America. The US period of owning the market for the past few months is coming to an end as Brazil soybeans cause export prices to tumble.
When you see South American soybeans being shipped into the US then it is a sure sign that US prices are too high. There is also a great deal of conjecture about China being overbought on soybeans and perhaps having to cancel some orders.
You add some negative trade factors to the slightly bearish USDA WASDE report and you have prices in the USA sliding much lower in only a couple of days. Experts say that the old crop prices could continue to drop – since they are still at about a USD 15 m/t premium to new crop – but, depending on what China does both old and new crop may come tumbling down.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The freight estimates that are shown below are based on information from several sources and should be reasonably close to actual market prices per m/t but depending on who you talk to the estimates are plus/minus 10% or so.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $20.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35/37.00 | Up $ 2.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $36/38.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $34/36.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $37/39.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/50.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $49/51.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t | $31/34.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $28/30.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t | $26/28.00 | Up $2.00 |
| France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t | $24.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $25.00 | New |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $45.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe | $25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | no price |
|
| Brazil to Europe | $24.00 | New |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $29/31.00 | Steady |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1477 | Down 66 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2677 | Down 303 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1113 | Up 38 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 671 | Up 8 |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 293>>276 Mar>>May | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 337>>327 Mar>>May | x |
| Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/290 Mar/May | x |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 297/300 Mar/May | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 325/335 Mar/May |
|
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD no offers | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 260/262 Mar/May | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/235 Apr/May | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD no offers | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 260/265 | x |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 234>>226 Mar>>May | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 250>>247 Mar>>May | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 229>>223 March>>May | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 210/217 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 238/250 Mar/May | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 259/267 Mar/May | x |
|
|
|
|
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 254/258 Mar/May | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 190/200 Mar/May | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 556>>546 Apr>>May | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 613>>590 Mar>>May | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 617>>541 Mar>>May | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 495>>490 May>>Jun | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 595>>526 Mar>>May | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/630 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 563>>558 Mar>>May | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 510>>500 May/Jun | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 578>>567 April>>June | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 550/565 Mar/May | x |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 910/920 m/t Apr/May | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 m/t Apr/May | x |
|
|
|
|
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325>>315 m/t April>>May | x |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 375>>360 m/t Mar>>May | x |
DDGS prices are down a little this week but that is more a case of there being nothing available for March/April where the prices would be sky-high, if you could find an export position or an empty shipping container. DDGS producers in the USA are still fighting their way through the problems created by the severe winter and will need a few more weeks to catch up to commitments already on the books. So if you want a supply of DDGS then late April or May looks like the best possibility.
It is expected that the current prices levels, as shown above, will not change much in coming weeks, unless there is a major change in corn prices.
Corn gluten meal prices for nearby supply continue higher mainly because you just can't find any available supply. With high fishmeal prices and stronger animal protein prices combined with a short supply there looks to be no good reason for CGM prices to drop in the next few weeks, at least not until we see a more steady supply that is actually available for export.
With corn gluten feed there is nothing new to report as prices and supply seem steady.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 540/560 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 720/730 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 590/610 m/t |
It is interesting that animal protein prices in the USA domestic market, for export and in the Asia market are all higher this week while at the same time soymeal is dropping lower. Of course alternative proteins like corn gluten meal and fishmeal are also holding their high price levels, as good demand is keeping prices firm.
Other than the fact the soymeal is weak, there seems very little reason to expect animal protein prices, especially meat and bone meal, to drop – just too much demand in the Asia market at present.
We have seen quite a lot of interest from Bangladesh for lower cost MBM but traders say that the Vietnam market is very quiet at present. Indonesia, the biggest MBM market, seems to still be leading the demand.
The question is, will animal protein prices be able to stay high priced in the face of falling soymeal prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Here we still are between fishing seasons in Peru and the market is full of many rumours and stories. The government's biomass research trip is said to be going very well with the biomass seemingly at very healthy levels but no one will say anything official at present. There is also lots of talk about and El Nino event for Peru but nothing certain and no idea if it will bad or good. And, there are quite a few stories about new order for the next season – only stories so far as no one will confirm any future business. There is also talk that Chinese interests are going to make an offer for Pesquera Diamante in Peru. The market says that it had better be a very generous offer.
There is still very little business in Peru but there is nothing to sell so that is not too surprising.
Market experts are saying that, with the drop in soymeal prices, fishmeal should have to move lower and perhaps it will once there is actually a supply available. On the other hand the price for corn gluten meal certainly has not weakened with soymeal and CGM is in direct competition with fishmeal. Trade reports that cover the China market say that the price for fishmeal is softening due to the drop in soymeal prices in China.
China has published their January 2014 fishmeal import number and while total imports are down close to 7% the share of fishmeal from Peru is up by more than 80% from January 2013. China is still the largest market for Peruvian fishmeal with just over 70% of exports going to China. China and Germany together account for about 81% of Jan/Feb 2014 Peru fishmeal exports and if you add Chile, Vietnam and Japan to the mix you get up to 93% of 2014 exports to these five destinations.
As to prices, if soymeal continues weak then for next season fishmeal prices should have to be a little lower. For now, with nothing to sell, prices are steady.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 1420/1440 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1450/1460 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1520/1540 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1540/1550 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1560/1570 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1590 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1610 m/t |
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2050 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2700 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.