Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 21, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn traders in the USA seem to be of the opinion that corn prices do not have much more room to go lower unless there is a sudden increase in the supply side for corn. An increase in supply for corn does not look too likely as the experts are saying that 2014 yield estimates may just be a little too high and perhaps we will not see as much of a harvest as expected. This kind of speculation happens every year as the crop is doing its best to grow and, luckily, the corn crop never listens to the experts but just grows on as best it can.
There was the comment by the US Grains Council in their weekly report that corn prices may not have bottomed and could have room to go 5 or 6% lower, which works out to about USD 10 m/t on an export basis.
This week there seems to be a lot of discussion about the weather and the corn pollination and the type of weather that is the best for pollination. The US weather overall for corn is quite good with the few areas that have been too wet expecting more sunshine for this coming week.
We do have the USDA Acreage Report being issued on the 30th and experts guessing the levels will probably help to keep the market excited for the next few days.
Old crop soybeans and soymeal moved a little lower this week with new crop being just a tad higher. The further along we get in the crop year the closer the old crop prices will move toward the new crop levels but there is still a long way to go as old crop beans are still about USD 56 m/t higher than new crop.
The new crop prices were a little higher this week due to the excess rain in some parts of the US soybean growing areas. There were some comments in trade reports that the end of June period is sometimes the end of the "bearish" time for soybean prices and that new crop prices may be steady to higher from here on in.
As with corn, next week should see prices jump around a little as everyone gets excited about the USDA Acreage Report and all the "experts" publish their opinions in advance of the USDA numbers. It should be an exciting week.
USA Crop Progress report – June 16, 2014
| Product | Last year % | Last week % | This week % | 5 year Average % |
| Soybeans planted | 83 | 87 | 92 | 90 |
| Sorghum planted | 82 | 67 | 75 | 83 |
USA Crop condition report – June 16, 2014 – all in percentages
|
| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat - winter | 22 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 5 |
| Wheat - spring | 1 | 3 | 24 | 62 | 10 |
| Corn | 1 | 3 | 20 | 59 | 17 |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $43/44.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $36/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $25.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $42.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/42.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Europe | $25.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $28/30.00 | Up $4.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $36/40.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/26.00 |
| x |
| Baltic Dry Index | 904 | Down 2 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1950 | Up 220 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 461 | Down 121 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 704 | Down 36 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 459 | Down 18 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 244/256 Jul/Oct | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 324/327 Jul/Oct | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 237/240 Jul/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 244/250 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 251/252 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 270/285 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 224/230 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 230/240 Jun/Aug | x |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 221/223 July/Aug | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/227 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 217/223 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 280/285 Jul/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 217>>210 July/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230/232 July/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 217>>212 July/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 197/201 July/Sep new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/210 Oct/Nov new crop | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 238/241 July/Aug | x |
|
|
|
|
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 251>>244 Aug/Sept | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 180/190 Jun/Aug | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 555>>537 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 605>>580 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 553>>540 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 500>>460 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 535>>527 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 480>>462 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 630/650 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 555>>549 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 510>>480 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 524>>493 Jul>>Sep | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 570>>564 Jul>>Sep | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 490/505 Sep/Oct | x |
*** see sources note
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/830 m/t Jul/Sep | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/200 m/t Jul/Sep | x |
|
|
|
|
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240>>235 m/t July>>Sep | x |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 310>>305 m/t July>>Sep | x |
*** see sources note
Again this week it is difficult to get a good idea on price levels for corn by-products. There are some real deals available in the market but it all depends on the supply position of the sellers and how deep they are being effected by the change in business with China and the spillover effect from DDGS to corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal.
While it may not be clear from the prices above, there is a very wide range of prices available in the market with some trade reports showing the low side of prices about 10 to 15% lower that shown above. These prices are probably in the market but are not widespread so what we show is more the market average price rather than high and low extremes.
It is interesting to note that Asian buyers have been very active in the corn by-product markets and their demand this past week has actually pushed some producer prices higher as they are getting sold out – of course, not every producer is sold out but there are some very popular export producers who are looking for higher prices --- just good old supply/demand at work.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 460/480 CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 590/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/1080 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 890/910 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1080/1100 m/t CNF Asia |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 510/530 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 710/730 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 660/680 m/t |
*** see sources note
Activity in the animal protein sector seemed quiet this week both in the international markets and the US domestic market. In some parts of the US the price for meat and bone meal was a little higher but this didn't have any effect on US export prices. Poultry meal prices in Asia are said to be a little weak although the export offers have not mover lower as yet. There does not seem to be too much export buying interest around at present which may be due to buyers all expecting price to move lower or perhaps vegetable proteins are just a very low cost alternative for now. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins on June 28th and this may have slowed the demand from some Asian markets – buyers normally want to have nay needed supplies in hand in advance of Ramadan.
Trade reports seem to say that export prices will probably follow vegetable protein price trends for now.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well now, it was another strong week for fishmeal prices in Peru as we see all grades are up by about USD 50 m/t and most trade reports are saying that the better grades of fishmeal have room to move higher. Seems that while the quota may not be caught, which will push up all prices, there is quite a shortage of the higher grades of fishmeal with most of what is being produced being lower down the quality scale.
The MSI Ceres report this week was saying the Peruvian fishmeal is priced out of the European market but that demand from Chile, Ecuador and Peru itself are very good… seems that shrimp feed and feeding is creating quite a bit of fishmeal demand.
Also, the thing about high fishmeal prices is that supply will appear from everywhere as even small producers in Africa would rather sell into the high priced world markets rather than sell locally at lower prices. High prices are always an opportunity for some…but not for the buyers.
The Southern fishing quota has expired and the new fishing quota of 234,000 m/t starts on the 23rd of June and runs until the end of September. There was still close to 90,000 m/t of fishing left on the old quota when it ran out – c'est la vie.
The Northern quota is now up to 1.1 million m/t caught leaving about 1.4 million m/t to go and about 40 days in which to do it. It is not going to be easy to fill the complete quota this season, especially as fishing in July normally falls off quite a bit.
So, with a good chance to not land the full quota and fishmeal production leaning mainly to lower grades is there any wonder that Peru fishmeal prices are moving higher.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 1750/1770 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1780/1800 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1800/1820 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1840/1860 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1860/1880 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1880/1900 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t |
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2200 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2150 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2800 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org,
International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org ,
France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,
Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com,
The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com,
International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.