Weekly report - July 12, 2014

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   July 12, 2014

 

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SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Seems that these days every week is a down week for USA prices – certainly good news for buyers but not so good for farmers and one suspects for grain traders too. This week USA corn prices were down by USD 10 to 12 m/t for new crop corn, soybeans were down on average by USD 25 m/t, soymeal was between USD 15 and 22 m/t lower and even all types of wheat were down by USD 15 to 25 m/t. There was nothing much that was moving higher this week.

 

The USDA WASDE report this week was probably the major market factor as the week ended and although it was not overly bearish on corn it was just enough bearish so that everyone who was long corn futures and options had to think about getting out before prices moved any lower. With there being little or nothing in the WASDE report that would seem to point to higher corn prices the trend lower will just have to keep going until we get some bullish news --- like a major change in the weather in the USA. For the next few days there will be below average temperatures in the USA corn belt along with lower than normal rainfall, perhaps this will stop the slide.

 

Some trade experts are saying that with the recent drop in prices, corn is probably getting reasonably close to the bottom for the year with only room for another maximum drop of USD 5 to 8 m/t, still that is another 3 to 4% lower in corn prices.

 

Soybean prices are at their lows for the year after a very down week last week. The combination of very good weather and a slightly bearish WASDE report was enough to get the market moving strongly lower. Some experts are saying that if the weather remains good and the USDA yields look likely then soybean prices could go another USD 25 m/t lower for the new crop.

 

Old crop soybean prices are dropping faster than new crop with much of this due to the USDA report saying that the ending stocks of soybeans will be higher than expected. So with more old crop beans available, if that is correct, the old crop prices are likely to move lower until the very high old crop premium disappears – it is still up at just over USD 70 m/t, old crop higher than new crop.

 

As mentioned above, for now, prices look to stay weak until something major changes that will stop the slide or rally prices ---- and this will surely be a change in the USA weather.

           

USA Crop condition report – July 07, 2014 – all in percentages

 

	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat - winter	22	22	25	26	5
Wheat - spring	2	4	24	58	12
Corn	1	4	20	54	21
Soybeans	1	4	23	57	15
Sorghum	1	5	33	51	10
	Last week	This week	Last year	5 year avge.
Winter – wheat harvested	43	57	55	60

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14.00		X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$26/27.00		X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00		X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00		X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$26/27.00		X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00		X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$27/29.00		X
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$42/43.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)	$40/41.00		X
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)	$41/42.00		X
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$33/35.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22.00		X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23.00		X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$40.00		X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$20.00		X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$25.00		X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$32.00		X
Argentina to Europe: 60,000 m/t	$19/20.00		X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$29/30.00		X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00		X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00		x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$40/42.00		X
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$30/31.00		X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$34/35.00		x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00		X
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00		X
Brazil to Europe	$25.00		x
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00		x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$31/33.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$42/44.00		x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/23.00	Down $2.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	814	Down 79	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1465	Down 399	X
Baltic Panamax Index	679	Up 39	X
Baltic Supramax Index	679	Down 3	x
Baltic Handisize Index	390	Down 13	x

*** see sources note

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 226/244 Jul/Oct	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 288/302 Jul/Oct	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 236/243 Jul/Aug new crop	x
Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 239/246 July/Aug new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 243/245 July/Aug	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 265/275 Dec/Jan 2015	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 223/226 July/Aug new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 210/217 Jun/Aug	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 215/218 July/Aug	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 205/210 Dec/Jan 2015	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 212/217 July/Aug new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 280/285 Jul/Sep	x

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 190>>184 July/Sep	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 202>>200 July/Sep	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 197>>191 July/Sep	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 182/186 July/Sep new crop	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 189/195 Oct/Nov new crop	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 238/244 July/Aug	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 210/215 Sep/Oct new crop	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  218/222 Aug/Sept	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  175/185 Jun/Aug	x

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 520>>485 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 590>>550 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 506>>494 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 465>>410 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 504>>490 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 480>>440 Jul>>Sep	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 610/630	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 525>>505 Jul>>Sep	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 495>>450 Jul>>Sep	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 530>>485 Jul>>Sep	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 585>>540 Jul>>Sep	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 495/510 Sep/Oct	x

*** see sources note

 

 

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   670/690 m/t  Jul/Sep	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   175/185 m/t Jul/Sep	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   184/189 m/t July>>Sep	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   282/285 m/t July>>Sep	x
DDGS corn, France, at producer	USD   315/320 m/t Sep/Oct	x

*** see sources note

 

With corn prices moving lower almost every week it is impossible to expect corn by-product prices to remain steady and again this week we have seen weakness in all prices, especially in DDGS. In the USA the domestic prices for DDGS were down by as much as USD 25 m/t with both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal showing weakness.

 

Export prices were not down quite as strongly as domestic prices but DDGS was off by at least USD 15 m/t while corn gluten meal dropped another USD 10 m/t and corn gluten feed was down by about USD 5 m/t.

 

All those by-product buyer who stayed out of the market in the hopes of lower prices are looking quite good right now. Of course, the question is how much lower can prices go. For both DDGS and CGF it is very tough to see a lot more room for lower prices since we are already at price levels that we have not seen in a long time. Corn gluten meal is a bit different in that it is a high protein item that does not normally show as much weakness – it is less vulnerable to corn/soymeal prices due to its very high usage in the pet food industry where it is more of a required ingredient than in the animal feed sector.

 

So for now, probably lower prices along with corn – until corn hits rock bottom.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 585/605 m/t CNF Asia  USD 635/655 m/t CNF Asia  USD 840/850 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1030/1050 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia  USD 890/910 m/t CNF Asia  USD 775/790 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1060/1090 m/t CNF Asia

*** see sources note

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 520/540 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 700/720 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 660/680 m/t

*** see sources note

 

It is interesting to see how the prices of animal proteins are able to stay firm while vegetable protein prices are sliding lower very quickly. A couple of trade papers in the US are saying that animal proteins should stay strong until the new crop of corn and soybeans are available and the weakness in quoted prices turns into an actual weakness in the cash market prices. There is still a USD 45 m/t or so premium for old crop soybeans and USD 60 to 70 premium for old crop soymeal. So perhaps they are right and the animal protein prices will stay firm until the premium disappears.

 

In Asia the animal protein prices moved a little lower as both Australian and New Zealand export prices were softer. But overall there does not seem to be much weakness in Asian price levels.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There was some very difficult fishing weather in Peru this past week which reduced the overall catch for the week. Combine the bad weather with a regional fishing ban due to high juvenile fish levels and things don't look too good for reaching quota.

 

All the trade reports from Peru are very happy about the latest El Nino forecasts which seem to point to little or no effect for the balance of 2014 – this makes life much easier for the fishmeal producers.

 

New business has been very slow in Peru the last couple of weeks as buyers continue to wait for lower prices and now feel that without an El Nino threat the prices should weaken – but don't count on it. However, with the estimated fishmeal stocks creeping up close to 100,000, perhaps the odd producer will be looking to make some sales at slightly more competitive price levels.

 

So here we are at July 12^th with only 19 fishing days left and some Peruvian holidays at the end of the month, how close are we going to get to the full quota. As you can see below there is still about 1.1 million m/t of catch to go but, if they fleet can average 15,000 m/t of catch per day, then there is the chance that another 300,000 m/t or so could be landed but it is going to be difficult.

 

It looks like the fishing season could come up about 700/800,000 m/t short of the full quota and that is quite a chunk of both fish and fishmeal (and fishoil too).  The more of the quota that is not landed the harder it will be to see any lower prices.

 

 

Peru Fishing Season Weekly update – July 10, 2014

 

Season	Zone		Quota	Caught	%	Remaining	%
1st	North/Central		2,530,000	1,439,985	56.9	1,090,015	43.1
1st	South		243,300	10,443	4.3	232,857	95.7

@Andes Connections

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Protein unit USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,971	27.38
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,742	27.22
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,800	28.12
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	1,825	28.53
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,896	27.08

@Commodity3

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	1740/1750 m/t
65/66 protein	1760/1770 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1780/1790 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1830/1850 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1850/1870 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1880/1900 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	1950/2050
Fish oil, crude drums	2150/2250
Fish oil, flexi tank	2100/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2600/2800

*** see sources note

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

 

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

 

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org,

International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org ,

France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, 

Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com,

The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com,

International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

And many, many, many more

 

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon