-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
This has not been too good a week for a calm world with the terrorist killings in Nice and the attempted coup in Turkey. Add that to the political and economic unrest in the EU and the UK and we have a very complicated situation in this part of the world. Throw currency values and crude oil prices into the mix and you have a great many variables that all effect grain and oilseed prices. With much of the commodities business being done for reasons other than hedging it is very difficult for a true hedger to fathom where the market is going. But then, this has been the way for many years now. The days of the grain markets being a hedger's market are long gone. So us poor trade guys just have to live with the grain markets reacting strongly to almost every new situation in the world – grain related or not. C'est la vie.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
USA grain prices were not changed all that much on the week. All the grains moved a little lower with the same seen for soybeans and soymeal. There was a great deal of activity in the futures markets with some exciting ups and downs but overall the markets seemed to be wary of moving higher. Corn price moved through a range of about USD 12 m/t while closing down by only USD 1.50 or so on the week. Soybeans were even more exciting with futures prices trading in a USD 30 m/t range during the week then closing the week almost unchanged for new crop soybeans.
USA corn is in the middle of the pollination stage and there are some concerns that the expected very hot weather could affect the pollination – but some reports say that there is rain expected which will make the situation a bit better. Corn is air-pollinated not bee-pollinated so the weather is a very important factor for corn. Every allergy sufferer knows what air-pollination is all about.
It is reported that there has been some regional drop in demand for corn for ethanol production but strong export demand seems to have offset this drop.
On the soybean/soymeal side of things, there was not really much fundamental news. The weekly soybean crush was about as anticipated while new export sales of soybeans were very good. Export sales for the new soybean crop are about as expected while sales for old crop soybeans are up at record levels.
All the activity in the soybean futures market was just longs and shorts fighting with each other and had almost nothing to do with what is actually happening in the soybean market.
It will be interesting to see how US futures markets start the week.
Crop condition --- USA and France
| Condition USA July 12, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat - % | 2 | 7 | 29 | 48 | 14 |
| Spring wheat | 2 | 5 | 23 | 60 | 10 |
| Barley | 1 | 3 | 22 | 59 | 15 |
| Corn | 1 | 4 | 19 | 58 | 18 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 5 | 23 | 57 | 14 |
| Sorghum | 0 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Condition France July 11, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 4 | 17 | 29 | 44 | 5 |
| Winter barley | 6 | 20 | 29 | 39 | 5 |
| Durum wheat | 11 | 13 | 23 | 44 | 9 |
| Spring barley | 1 | 13 | 24 | 52 | 10 |
| Corn | 3 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 6 |
@USDA and France AgriMer
French wheat and barley condition drops much lower this week as the past heavy rainfall continues to affect grain quality.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9.50/10.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 745 | Up 42 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1023 | Up 21 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 863 | Up 71 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 693 | Up 46 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 363 | Up 9 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 185/196 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 194/206 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 157/161 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 161/164 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 161/165 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 180/182 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 178/180 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 209/211 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 153/158 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 153/155 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 147/150 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 144/148 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 180/185 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 184/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 179/183 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 187/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 189/193 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 178/181 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/181 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/165 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 436/442 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 461/467 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 449/454 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 415/419 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 447/452 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 421/425 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | No offers | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 429/432 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 423/426 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 450/454 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No offers | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/700 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 740/750 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/175 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 208/215 m/t | x |
Corn by-product prices were quite variable this week but this could be due to a lack of actual export business. Depending on who you talked to the prices for DDGS were either up USD 10 m/t or down USD 10 m/t – all depending on how full their export book is. USA domestic prices were lower for DDGS, as much as USD 15 m/t in some areas, so it is quite possible that we will see some weakness in the export market prices this week.
For corn gluten meal it was very difficult to get a decent price level as the market seemed very thin this week. The USDA says that domestic CGM prices were lower but that is not seen in this week's export levels, which were actually quoted higher by some shippers.
Corn gluten feed export prices were also a bit difficult to measure this week as there seemed to be quite a wide price variation depending on who you talked to and what information one read. The USDA price reports do say that CGF prices were down by about USD 5 m/t but not every export shipper would agree.
With corn finishing the week a tad lower and the same for soymeal, one wouldn't expect to see higher prices for corn by-products.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 495/505 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 810/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 575/585 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
According to trade reports this week, the animal protein business into the main buying areas in Asia was subdued. Seems that buyers were bidding lower while exporters were offering higher and little or no business was being done.
Overall, except for feathermeal, prices were quite steady this week. The run up in USA domestic feathermeal prices has pushed the export prices up strongly for all origins. The Jacobsen Report this week says that US feathermeal has jumped by as much as US 50 m/t due to "strong export demand and tight nearby positions" with a similar increase seen in Australian and New Zealand feathermeal export prices.
Nothing much too exciting has happened to meat and bone meal prices as CNF Asia prices seemed to be in an up USD 10 down USD 10 price range with not a whole lot of business being done. Perhaps the very up and down vegetable protein prices over the last few weeks are keeping buyers out of the MBM market until a price direction is established.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
According to the last fishing report from Peru, as of the 14th, about 735,000 m/t of fish have been landed against the 1.8 million m/t quota with the daily catch dependent on the number of vessels actively fishing. There has been some bad weather than has closed some fishing ports. It is also reported that there is a high level of other fish species in the nets – not just anchovy – with the allowed level fixed at 5% this could become a problem.
MSI Ceres has said in their report this week that it is their best guess that only 1.2 million m/t of the current quota will be caught with very little fishing being done in August. August is a bad fishing month due to the weather and then there is the complication of spawning with high levels leading to area fishing bans.
Fishmeal buyers seem to be getting a little more involved in the Peru market as it looks more and more like supplies of fishmeal will be limited with only about 275,000 m/t expected to be produced from this quota.
It is reported that China is in the market but that buyer's bids are well below the current quoted prices and Peruvian sellers are not jumping on low bids.
The closer that we get to the end of fishing, the more that we should see buyers in the market but with serious prices rather than low-ball bids.
As to prices, there doesn't seem to be much reason at present for there to be a big drop in prices and if Peru fishing starts to slack off then chances are prices will firm up.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,855 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,595 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,695 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,900 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein | 1550/1560 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1580/1590 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1600/1610 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1630/1640 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1680/1690 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1740 m/t | 1730/1740 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1780/1790 m/t | 1780/1790 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1650/1700 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.