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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
November 27, 2016
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
There is a little less information in the report this week as many of the information sources are US based and didn't work on Thursday or Friday. While the futures market was open on Friday most of the excitement came from earlier in the week.
On the futures side of things, corn prices were up by USD 1.50 to 2.00 m/t while soybeans took a good jump higher and were up by almost USD 20 m/t followed by soymeal at USD 10 m/t higher.
According to the experts, the rally in both beans and meal was partially a computer reaction to the market hitting a computerized buy signal. The very good soybean export report on Friday got prices moving a little then he computers took over and pushed prices higher. According to the USDA, the reported export sales are at the highest level ever recorded this early in crop year and, to-date, export sales and shipments represent 72% of the total USDA annual forecast. Sounds like some good reasons for a soybean price rally. Of course, with many people on holiday it may just be that a few order pushed prices too high and all may drop down again next week -- we will see.
One interesting thing with soybeans is that the weather in South America looks good for soybeans and the crop forecast just get bigger and bigger – will these strong soybean prices still be there when Brazil starts to ship.
Corn had a very quiet week. Normally, when you get a big rally, as we saw in soybeans this week, it would pull corn prices higher but not so this week. Brazils corn crop is expected to be much larger in 2017 than 2016 and this is weighing on the market and the weather in Argentina looks good for the corn planting. However, on the bullish side has been the US corn exports that just keep chugging along as the US, for now, is about the only corn game in town. The Ukraine will start appearing in the corn market much more strongly in the Middle East and Africa in coming weeks which will take away a little from US corn export levels but this was expected and shouldn't have much of an effect on export prices.
Crop condition --- USA and France
| Condition USA Nov 15, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat | 2 | 7 | 32 | 49 | 10 |
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Harvested |
Nov 22 2016 |
Five year average |
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| Corn | 97% | 96% |
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| Sorghum | 94% | 92% |
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| Winter wheat planted | 97% | 99%
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| Condition France Nov 21, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Corn | 7 | 14 | 26 | 45 | 8 |
| Wheat - soft | 0 | 0 | 6 | 67 | 27 |
| Barley | 0 | 0 | 7 | 69 | 23 |
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| Harvested | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Corn | 98 | 98 |
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| Winter crops planted | 2016 | 2015 |
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| Wheat – soft | 98% | 98% |
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| Wheat - hard | 85% | 94% |
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| Barley | 100% | 100% |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/16.50 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1181 | Down 76 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2263 | Down 489 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1389 | Up 1 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 908 | Up 99 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 520 | Up 54 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2016/February 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 182/185 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 201/204 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/184 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 182/185 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 187/189 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 170/173 Jan 2017 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 170/172 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 156/158 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 161/164 new crop | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 160/164 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 177/180 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 181/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 170/173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 170/174 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 165/168 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 367/370 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 392/395 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 374/377 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 364/367 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 338/341 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 405/408 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 413/415 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 420/424 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 393/397 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580/590 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 660/670 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 173/176 m/t | x |
As with everything else, the short work week in the US has reduced the market activity and information available this week. According to the USDA domestic price list, corn gluten meal was up by USD 7 to 10 m/t on average with corn gluten feed up by USD 6 m/t and DDGS up by USD 3 to 5 m/t.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
According to this week' Jacobsen Report, there is quite a bit of downward pressure on animal protein prices. Supplies of meat and bone meal are reported to be very good in the USA and, although prices were a little higher in Asia, no one seems to be expecting a sudden rush to higher prices.
According to USDA domestic prices it looks like MBM prices are a little lower most everywhere while US feathermeal prices look to be about USD 10 m/t higher.
The Thanksgiving holiday in the US reduced their trading days to just three for the week – so not too much happened. But the rally in soybeans and soymeal may just give some strength to animal protein prices next week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing continues in Peru with more than ten percent of the quota landed so far. Also, according to trade reports the level of juvenile fish in the catch is dropping and in most areas now sees the percentage close to or below the maximum level allowed.
New sales are quite slow at present with buyers waiting for lower prices while sellers are busy making fishmeal and covering the orders already on the books. No one seems to be in too much of a hurry to do a scad of new fishmeal business.
According to at least one trade report this week, it seems unlikely that the full quota will be landed. At the current average daily catch level of 20,000 m/t there needs to be 90 days left to catch the quota and we don't have 90 days.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD | Cost per protein unit |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,640 | 22.78 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 | 22.34 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,525 | 23.83 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 | 24.62 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,670 | 23.86 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1380/1400 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1450/1470 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1600/1620 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2000 | 1650/1700 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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