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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 03, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
With the US holiday last Monday, the market seemed to have decided to have a quiet week. Except for spring wheat, everything was down a little on the week. Even the CBOT had a quiet week with the futures trading in grain said to be "light"
Even the experts are saying that the expected volatility in grain markets that one expects this time of the year has yet to develop --- but it is coming. As you can see by the numbers below, planting of spring crops is about where it should be – the US farmer can always catch up on planting, so falling a little behind as it looked in May has less effect than it would have had many years ago.
There really wasn't much in the market this week to push corn or soybean prices strongly in any one direction.
However, longer term, there is some talk that dry conditions in the grain areas in the US could become more important but at present it just seems to be spring wheat that may be at risk.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.00/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Adjusted | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/27.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Adjusted | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Adjusted | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Adjusted | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Adjusted | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 830 | Down 82 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1374 | Down 217 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 792 | Down 53 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 674 | Down 47 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 446 | Down 23 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2017/August 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 180/185 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 212/217 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/180 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 183/185 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 185/188 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 180/184 new crop | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 171/175 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 169/172 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 160/164 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 157/160 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 195/200 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 170/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 161/166 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 160/164 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 187/192 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 168/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 184/187 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 147/152 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 327/331 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 352/356 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 334/338 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 307/311 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 333/337 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 307/312 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 335/340 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 363/368 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 351/355 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 356/362 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/382 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580/590 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 114/117 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/158 m/t | x |
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It was a short work week in the US, with the holiday last Monday so business seemed to be a little slower for the week. DDGS prices did move up a little in the US – perhaps as much as USD 5 m/t in some parts of the US. Export prices were up about USD 3 m/t for DDGS.
According to the USDA numbers, corn gluten feed prices were down by about USD 2 m/t while corn gluten meal prices were unchanged on the week. Other than DDGS there was no change in FOB export prices.
The US export numbers for corn gluten meal took jump higher in April as Egypt imported in excess of 30,000 m/t in one month – this is about a three-month supply for Egypt. Egypt had not bought much corn gluten meal since late 2016 so stocks were low and feed producers needed some higher protein.
The USDA grain crushing report was out this week and showed DDGS production down by about 12 % on the month – a drop of about 250,000 m/t. Corn gluten feed production was down a little while corn gluten meal was up by just a tad.
USA Corn by-product exports – Jan/April 2017 – in m/t – major destinations.
|
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal
| Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Bangladesh |
|
| 23,700 |
| Cambodia |
|
| 14,700 |
| Canada |
| 15,900 | 236,600 |
| Chile |
| 29,000 | 6,100 |
| China |
|
| 255,500 |
| Colombia | 27,600 | 35,000 | 68,100 |
| Egypt | 2,700 | 42,300 | 51,900 |
| Indonesia |
| 83,100 | 199,200 |
| Ireland | 78,700 |
| 130,800 |
| Israel | 62,700 | 5,200 | 98,700 |
| Japan |
| 1,900 | 166,600 |
| Malaysia |
| 5,100 | 32,500 |
| Mexico | 10,100 | 9,400 | 769,200 |
| Morocco | 18,100 |
| 79,600 |
| New Zealand |
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| 47,800 |
| Pakistan |
|
| 17,200 |
| Philippines |
|
| 53,300 |
| Portugal | 4,900 |
| 16,000 |
| Saudi Arabia |
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| 25,200 |
| South Korea |
|
| 285,900 |
| Spain | 5,400 |
| 167,100 |
| Taiwan |
| 10,700 | 80,000 |
| Thailand |
| 21,800 | 240,800 |
| Turkey | 50,600 |
| 632,900 |
| UK |
|
| 75,900 |
| Vietnam |
| 3,400 | 2,000 |
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| Total exports | 261,700 | 281,800 | 3,906,500 |
@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/890 m/t CNF Asia |
Export business was a little quite this week as major Asian buyers are just into the Ramadan period. There was a little weakness in some prices but it was not across the board. The limited number of buyer who were out there this week were all looking for lower prices and exporters seemed quite happy to accept lower bids.
The Jacobsen Report this week was mentioning that the low-cost supply of DDGS in the USA (and for export) is putting some downward pressure on animal protein prices as feed producers try to keep costs down and continue to move to more vegetable based protein.
No one seems to be forecasting higher animal protein prices in coming weeks.
USA exports of animal proteins and feathermeal – Jan/April 2017 – in m/t – major destinations
|
| Meat and Bone meal -- includes pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
| Indonesia | 56,900 | 10,900 |
| Mexico | 55,400 |
|
| Canada | 20,300 | 3,200 |
| Chile |
| 2,600 |
| China | 17,300 | 5,300 |
| Vietnam | 9,600 |
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| Germany | 3,900 |
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| Ecuador | 2,600 |
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| Thailand | 2,600 |
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| Peru | 2,000 |
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| Total exports | 179,400 | 22,700 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Total catch is now up to 1.575 million m/t, as of June 01. Not bad, fishing doesn't seem to be falling off at all.
Fishmeal prices in Peru were up a little this week but some trade reports say that is was more the producers increasing prices rather than buyers bidding higher for supply. Buyers don't seem all that much too willing to pay higher prices so we will have to see if the USD 20 m/t increase can hold.
There was an estimate in a trade report this week that, assuming the full quota is landed, there will only be a maximum of 200,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal - not exactly an overwhelming quantity.
The ports in Peru are very busy with the first of the fishmeal from this season with exporters saying that it is impossible to find any shipping space for June – container vessels seem to be oversold with stories that cargo could be left behind for the next vessel – just a case of too much business crammed in a short period of time.
The word in Peru is that many are confident that the full quota will be landed – even with the weather turning quite a bit worse. According to the MSI CERES report some "experts" are even saying that the quota could all be done by the end of June.
MSI Ceres also mentions that there is a feeling with producers that the market prices are at the bottom with the next few months likely to see higher prices, slightly higher.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,375 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,340 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,300 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,350 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | No info |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1000/1020 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1070/1090 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1230/1250 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1310/1330 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1400/1420 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1200/1250 | 1100/1150 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1300/1350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1600/1700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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