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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 09, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This was a reasonably quiet week in the USA – probably recovering from the holiday in the US last Monday – four-day work weeks tend to be a bit calmer (except perhaps around Christmas and New Year where limited trading days can mean lots of excitement).
On the US futures side of things, September corn was up by about USD 2 m/t but other months were up by less than USD 1 --- a quiet time. Soybeans were up by about USD 5 m/t with soymeal up by close to USD 8 m/t. Winter wheat in the US was steady to a little lower while spring wheat was up by about USD 5 to 7 m/t due to the after effects of Hurricane Harvey and concerns over Hurricane Irma and the two other hurricanes following behind.
As mentioned above, the grain markets in the US were very, very quiet but then we do have the next USDA WASDE report coming up on the 12th which should add some excitement to the market. No matter what report you read these days, both in the US and international, grain stocks are going to be at very high levels almost everywhere which is going to make any serious price rally very difficult to support.
The one area where a rally might happen is in soybeans and, even though there are lots of beans, China has been buying at record levels which could, if it continues, add some upward impetus to the market prices.
So, for next week we have both the USDA WASDE report and Hurricane Irma to get the US market moving.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
All other French grain crops are harvested
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.50/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/42.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1332 | Up 149 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2767 | Up 503 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1375 | Up 177 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 888 | Up 35 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 504 | Up 18 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2017/December 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 190/194 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 236/240 high protein Premium | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/171 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 187/192 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/192 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 174/179 new crop Dec | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 159/164 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 177/180 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 179/183 new crop Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 159/162 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 177/180 Nov/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 151/155 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/159 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 160/165 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 186/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 161/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/181 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 164/167 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 331/334 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 354/359 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 345/349 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 310/315 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 339/343 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 313/318 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 423/425 corrected | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 374/378 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/381 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 377/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 368/373 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585/595 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 136/140 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/174 m/t | x |
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Both the domestic and export prices for DDGS moved higher this week – pushed up a little by the approval by Vietnam for the import of US DDGS. According to trade reports the DDGS prices were up between USD 4 and 8 m/t depending on the producer. Everyone is expecting a rush of pent up demand from Vietnam so sellers are anticipating some market tightness and are moving prices higher.
Also, the rally in soymeal prices has helped to push DDGS export prices higher.
There was no change in corn gluten feed prices this week but they will probably move higher next week following the small corn rally this week. Corn gluten meal prices were steady to a little lower but no major change at all.
USA corn by-product exports – January to July 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
| Destination | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal | Corn Gluten Feed |
| Canada | 430,600 | 29,200 |
|
| Chile |
| 79,100 |
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| China | 320,400 |
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|
| Colombia | 110,800 | 49,100 | 27,600 |
| Egypt | 84,700 | 65,500 | 16,900 |
| Indonesia | 337,800 | 150,300 |
|
| Ireland | 197,600 |
| 199,800 |
| Israel | 193,600 | 5,200 | 130,500 |
| Japan | 269,600 | 2,700 |
|
| Malaysia |
| 9,495 |
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| Mexico | 1,278,600 | 15,500 | 28,700 |
| Morocco | 155,000 | 700 | 28,000 |
| Philippines | 82,400 | 1,200 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 27,700 |
| South Korea | 540,800 | 700 |
|
| Spain | 229,200 |
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| Taiwan |
| 18,100 |
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| Thailand | 402,200 | 28,800 |
|
| Turkey | 1,019,200 |
| 139,400 |
| UK |
|
| 29,400 |
@USDA-FAS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices to Asia seemed a little lower this week – at least for meat and bone meal. There continues to be a chunk of EU material offered at lower prices which is helping to move buyer bids lower. While the trade is saying that Australia and New Zealand prices are steady buyers are still bidding below the market and sellers may have to move lower to stay in the business.
USA domestic prices for meat and bone meal were a little lower as sellers are competing with lower soymeal prices within the US. The US trade feels that the demand for animal proteins will be weak for the next while as there is going to be a very big supply of vegetable protein available and feed producers will always buy the least cost alternative.
Poultry meal prices were steady this week but some trade reports say that, at least for pet food grade, the prices should be moving lower as supply seems to be much greater than demand. However, the experts also say that prices will move up again in Oct/Nov as demand is expected to climb – as it does historically.
USA animal protein exports – January to July 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
| Destination | Meat and bone meal Including pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
| Canada | 37,600 | 9,200 |
| Chile |
| 5,600 |
| China | 26,500 | 9,200 |
| Ecuador | 4,800 |
|
| Germany | 3,900 |
|
| Indonesia | 90,300 | 17,600 |
| Malaysia | 3,400 |
|
| Mexico | 251,900 |
|
| Peru | 3,800 |
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| Thailand | 7,900 |
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| Vietnam | 17,300 |
|
@USDA-FAS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another quiet week in the Peruvian fishmeal business but according to the trade there was some buying in the futures side of things with China said to be booking about 15,000 m/t. According to MSI Ceres the new crop sales are now up to about 40,000 m/t, with the prices about as shown below.
The general feeling in the market and in the trade reports is that the new fishing season in Peru will begin in mid-November. Which, according to MSI Ceres, is good as it will allow China to work down some of its large fishmeal inventories before the next season fishmeal ships.
One of the trade reports this week mentions that the freight rates from Peru to China for the new season are quoted at about double today's USD 8 to 10 m/t rates.
Sorry, not much else to say this week on fishmeal.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,565 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,420 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,425 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,570 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1460/1480 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1300/1350 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1700/1750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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