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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 11, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
So, this was the week for the November USDA WASDE Report and looking at the prices at the end of Friday it looks like much of a non-event.
The USDA increased expected corn yields for this year crop which pushed corn futures prices down to the low of the year. Corn stocks are forecasted to be at the highest level in 30 years. None of which was good news for prices or for farmers. However, things were not all that bad as corn futures were only down by about USD 3 m/t on the week.
With soybeans the yield number was reduced a little but was still higher than what most experts had been forecasting. Futures prices fell quite sharply after the WASDE report but still finished the week only down by less than USD 1 m/t – soymeal was down by USD 2 m/t.
There was not too much effect on wheat prices in the WASDE report with winter wheat staying quite steady – only hard red spring wheat was able to rally but much of that rally was before the report.
It will be interesting to see if the bearish report for corn can move prices lower next week and maybe even lower prices for US soybeans.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17.50/18.00 | Up $0.50 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | New | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $52/53.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1464 | Down 12 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3360 | Up 324 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1418 | Down 144 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 912 | Down 102 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 644 | Down 20 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2017/February 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 187/190 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 241/243 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/183 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/191 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 189/194 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 191/193 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 177/182 new crop Dec | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 174/178 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 187/189 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 184/188 new crop Dec | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/194 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 157/160 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 146/151 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 147/152 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 157/161 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 186/189 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 163/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 162/167 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/187 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 158/163 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/373 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 347/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 317/321 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 345/350 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 312/317 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 350/354 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 378/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 371/375 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 386/391 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 385/390 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 570/575 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/153 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 187/190 m/t | x |
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Most corn co-product prices were all up a little this week with DDGS export prices up quite a bit. DDGS was seeing good export demand along with the change in the DDGS situation into China – removal of the VAT tax, which could see exports to China move a little higher (or not).
There was upward pressure on US export prices due to some problems in the Mississippi river system, mainly in the Ohio river. According to the US Grains Council CIF Nola prices were up by about USD 6 m/t for DDGS and a similar level for other co-products.
According to the USDA, domestic corn gluten meal prices were up by close to USD 20 m/t, but this has not yet been seen in export prices. Domestic corn gluten feed prices were down a little, perhaps USD 2 m/t while DDGS was up a little in most US domestic markets.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 340/360 to Indonesia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
According to the Jacobsen Report this week the price for meat and bone meal into Indonesia continues to move lower as buyers seem to be quite well covered but supply just keeps on coming. The prices into China are considerably higher so producers are looking more to that market.
In the US market, except or some weakness in feed grade poultry meal, most price – both domestic and export – were mainly steady. Jacobsen says that poultry meal is being dragged down by lower meat and bone meal prices – needless to say, users are always looking for the most cost-effective ingredients.
It doesn't look like there is any reason for a rally in price – so, probably steady or perhaps lower for a bit.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The talk in Peru this week is that the new quota will not be any higher than 1.8 million m/t – down form the 2.0 mm/t that has been forecasted ---- of course, this is all speculation. Estimates in the trade vary from a low of about 1.7 million m/t to a high of 2.2 mm/t. We just have to wait for the Peruvian government for the actual number. There has also been a story in the trade reports that fishing will not begin until the end of November.
Not much future business being done as most producers are waiting for some idea on the new quota and the timing of the season --- with delays and a possible lower than expected quota the producers are probably looking at higher prices.
MSI Ceres reports that prices in China are moving higher as fishmeal stocks on hand decrease with not much more on the way – at least not from Peru.
Prices in Europe seem to be down a little this week but that is probably related to the value of the US dollar and not a change in prices. In Peru price quotes for all grades are a little higher as quota worries push up prices.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,540 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,360 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,370 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,420 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,570 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1200/1210 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1230/1240 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1290/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1370/1380 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1410/1420 m/t | 1400/1410 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t | 1440/1450 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | 1490/1500 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1600/1650 | 1350/1400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1700/1750 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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