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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 16, 2017
I am not too sure that there will be a weekly report next week – my wife and I are spending Christmas in Italy and I will be dependent on local wireless and internet cafes for updated info. We will see, if I can get all the info and steal the time then there will be a report.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week was a big week for South American concerns for soybeans – at least in Argentina. According to reports at the end of the week, this week will be very critical for Argentina soybeans and corn with rain needed in much of the country. The soybean and corn plantings are about half completed but the very dry soil conditions are said to be having a bad effect on the fields planted to date with even more concern over the fields not planted.
The short-term weather forecast expects a little rain this weekend, but things do not look good for much more rainfall until after the end of December.
So, if it rains a good bit in Argentina, markets will calm down but if the rainfall is poor we could easily see a decent rally higher in soybeans and soymeal with corn following along.
Corn futures contracts hit new low levels on Friday as corn continues along with little interest little trading and more than adequate supplies of corn on every street corner. Some US forecasters are saying that they expect corn planting will drop a little as farmers switch to more profitable soybeans for 2018. However, as it is only December and we have a good chunk of time until planting then things could change quite quickly.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/20.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $55/56.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | steady | x |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1619 | Down 83 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3777 | Down 416 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1677 | Up 89 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 942 | Down 1 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 636 | Up 5 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2017/February 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 179/182 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 197/200 lower protein from 12% down to 11% | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/192 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 190/193 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 177/180 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 178/182 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 183/185 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 176/180 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 218/223 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 154/157 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 168/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 186/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 166/170 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 188/191 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/165 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 345/349 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 370/374 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 366/370 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 341/345 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 356/362 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 330/336 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 372/376 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/379 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 383/387 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 387/392 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/154 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 201/204 m/t | X |
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Strong export demand is pushing DDGS prices higher again this week – prices are up at levels not seen since mid-2016. DDGS prices looks to be up by USD 5 to 7 m/t FOB USA with a couple of more dollars on top for higher container freight costs.
Corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal did not show the strength seen in DDGS prices with CGM slipping a little in the export market but if poultry meal and fishmeal export prices stay strong then we should see a rally in CGM price too.
Corn gluten feed prices were pretty well unchanged on the week bit for export and in domestic US markets.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 to Indonesia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into major markets in Asia moved higher this week as sellers didn't seem to be as aggressive as they had been for the past few weeks – the oversupply situation seems to be winding down, especially for US product. Prices from OZ and NZ for animal proteins were steady to higher which may be more demand related than any supply problem. Buyers seem to be lining up for post New Year business which is pushing prices a little higher.
The strong Asia demand has pushed US export prices higher even though the domestic US prices didn't move higher. Domestic supply and demand seemed about balanced in the US with only export prices showing a move higher.
However, due to the holidays we will probably see steady to higher prices until we get into the early weeks of 2018 when the market can shake off the holiday and get back to normal supply/demand price relationships.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Depending on which market trade report you read, either nothing is happening, or prices are rocketing higher. While it is true that prices have moved up quite a bit in China, it is quite a bit more difficult to know exactly where the selling prices may be in Peru.
The much higher prices shown below may or may not be accurate and perhaps could just be someone's wild idea of where business can be done --- or it may even be 100% correct. Very tough to know exactly what the true price is for a ton of Peruvian fishmeal.
With no fishing being done at present and sellers not selling then the experts in the trade can justify almost any prices in their trade reports.
The Christmas and New Year holidays will be upon us in a few days, so we may not get a good idea of where production and prices will be until we get into January 2018.
For this week, prices are certainly higher but perhaps not as strong as those shown below. We will see what January brings.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,620 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,570 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1400/1420 m/t | Up $100 |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1500 m/t | Up $150 |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1550/1450 m/t | Up $150 |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | Up $200 | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1850 m/t | Up $200 | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | Up $200 | 1820/1870 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | Up $200 | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | Up $200 | 1500/1600 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 | Up $200 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2200/2250 | Up $200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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