-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 13, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Some experts are saying that the soybean supply numbers are not really bearish as the USDA numbers were actually lower than what some private forecasters had expected. This was reflected in futures prices after the report with both soybeans and soymeal moving higher. There is some feeling in trade reports this weekend that soybean prices will move higher from this level.
Corn was lower on the week following the USDA report that showed larger US production and stocks coupled with larger world stocks of corn. The USDA didn't change their previous Argentina and Brazil corn numbers. The USDA shows corn yields at record levels which is something that is not always possible – too much can happen to change yield levels and we are only in January.
Looking at the market reaction to the WASDE report: not much happened to corn prices – down by less than USD 1 after the report but down by about USD 2 m/t on the week, soybeans were up by almost USD 4 m/t after Friday's report with soymeal up by the same (both soybeans and soymeal were still down by USD 5 to 8 m/t on the week).
Wheat prices were the most affected by the WASDE with prices for all types of wheat dropping by USD 4 to 6 m/t following the report.
Experts seem to feel that there is room for soybeans and soymeal to move higher with corn also probably trending a little higher but not as much as soybeans. Wheat looks like it could be trending lower – depending on the US winter weather and the levels of expected winter frost kill.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | down $1.00 | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | up $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index | 1279 | Down 92 | x |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2296 | Down 495 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1348 | Down 52 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index | 907 | Up 23 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index | 587 | Down 13 | x |
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2018/March 2018
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 180/183 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 204/208 | x |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/179 | x |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/191 | x |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/195 | x |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 195/197 | x |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 173/177 | x |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 176/179 | x |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 191/193 | x |
Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 177/180 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/191 | X |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 219/224 | x |
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 162>>159 | x |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 172>>169 | x |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 162/165 | x |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 163/167 June/July | X |
Corn, FOB France | USD 190/196 | x |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 173/176 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 163/166 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/169 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 168/172 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 198/201 | X |
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 348/353 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 373/378 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 370/373 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 336/340 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 362/366 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 317/320 July/August | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 368/372 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 354/358 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 371/375 | x |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/380 | X |
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 605 Jan>>590 Mar m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165 Jan>>150 Mar m/t | x |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 205 Jan>>192 Mar m/t | x |
|
|
|
Nearby prices for all corn by-products (DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed) are strong due almost totally to current US export logistic problems plus some increase in US domestic demand. But as you can see from the prices above, the spot prices are considerably higher than the price out a little into the future.
It is interesting to see that while export prices are very strong the US domestic prices tend to be steady to lower. The USDA shows corn gluten meal domestic prices levels down by USD 10 m/t while corn gluten feed and DDGS prices are steady. Just shows you how export logistics complications can drive prices higher.
Buyers need to book March or April shipment at lower price levels or pay the much higher price for earlier shipment.
USA corn by-product exports – January to November 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
Destination | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal |
Australia |
|
| 4,800 |
Bangladesh | 113,100 |
| 3,300 |
Cambodia | 53,200 |
|
|
Canada | 648,600 |
| 54,900 |
Chile | 18,500 |
| 119,500 |
China | 355,700 |
|
|
Colombia | 195,000 | 33,800 | 83,200 |
Costa Rica | 80,400 |
|
|
Denmark |
|
| 8,600 |
Egypt | 137,800 | 16,900 | 99,500 |
El Salvador | 52,900 |
| 7,500 |
Guatemala | 49,300 |
| 10,500 |
Honduras | 44,600 |
| 7,000 |
Indonesia | 652,300 |
| 207,300 |
Ireland | 323,100 | 341,000 |
|
Israel | 250,500 | 197,500 | 5,200 |
Japan | 408,600 |
| 4,900 |
Malaysia | 67,500 |
| 14,100 |
Mexico | 1,980,800 | 35,900 | 25,000 |
Morocco | 229,600 | 58,800 |
|
Myanmar | 32,300 |
|
|
New Zealand | 157,000 | 10,000 |
|
Pakistan | 42,500 |
|
|
Panama | 17,800 |
|
|
Peru | 16,700 |
| 8,600 |
Philippines | 125,500 |
| 2,000 |
Portugal | 55,700 | 32,100 |
|
Saudi Arabia | 55,700 |
|
|
South Korea | 857,700 |
|
|
Spain | 297,700 | 5,500 |
|
Sri Lanka | 32,100 |
|
|
Taiwan | 241,900 |
| 30,100 |
Thailand | 663,200 |
| 40,900 |
Tunisia | 10,000 |
|
|
Turkey | 1,351,900 | 248,000 |
|
UK | 213,300 | 62,700 |
|
Vietnam | 219,300 |
| 6,300 |
|
|
|
|
Total all exports | 10,108,700 | 1,044,500 | 750,700 |
@USDA-FAS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 to Indonesia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into major markets in Asia were a little higher this week probably due mainly to good demand against a steady supply level. Demand is probably being helped along somewhat by the lack of availability of Peruvian fishmeal and the buyers needs to book some protein supplies.
There seems to be a feeling in the trade reports that supply is moving higher quicker than demand which could result in prices falling a little further in coming weeks. No one seems to expect a serious drop in animal protein prices, but chances look better for steady to lower prices rather than higher.
USA domestic prices are weakening due to good supply and this will move into the US export price levels.
USA animal protein exports – January to November 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
Destination | Meat and bone meal Including pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
Canada | 61,800 | 17,400 |
Cambodia | 5,000 |
|
Chile |
| 10,900 |
China | 41,200 | 17,600 |
Ecuador | 7,600 |
|
Germany | 3,900 |
|
Honduras | 3,700 |
|
Indonesia | 145,500 | 27,300 |
Malaysia | 6,700 |
|
Mexico | 514,400 |
|
Peru | 5,200 |
|
Philippines | 4,400 |
|
Thailand | 15,000 |
|
Vietnam | 28,800 |
|
|
|
|
Total all exports | 854,700 | 75,100 |
@USDA-FAS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, fishing has been back on in quite bit of Peru since January 7 with the daily catch level varying from 22,000 m/t up to 30,000 m/t. Of course, there are still fishing bans in some areas but at least fishing is going on. The program from the government was to fish from January 7 to 11 and if fishing is ok then to just carry on. The latest word is that fishing will continue from the 12th but with further bans in place until the 14th of January.
The current fishing bans are once again due to the high level of juvenile fish in some areas Peru. Reports show that in Chimbote the juvenile percentage is at 80%.
Fishmeal stocks in China continue to drop and it is expected that Chinese buyers will shortly be out in force to cover their needs for next three or four months. Buyers are not too willing to book new business as we are only a few days into the fishing period and much can still happen. Sellers certainly don't want to have oversold their fishmeal supply, so are being very careful.
As usual China is still the most important destination for Peruvian fishmeal with 80% of fishmeal exports going to China. If you include other Asian destinations in the export numbers, then Asia represents close to 93% of all Peru fishmeal exports. Only Chile and Germany are significant destinations outside of Asia and they only represent 3.5% of exports.
Both buyers and sellers will be watching fishing very closely in coming days and then one can certainly expect a flurry of buying from China.
As to prices, this week seems steady at last week's levels.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
|
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,760 | down $20 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,575 | Up $15 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 | Up $5 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 | Up $5 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,795 | Up $10 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
65% protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
|
65/66 protein | 1550/1600 m/t |
|
67% protein standard steam | 1650/1670 m/t |
|
67% protein 150 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 m/t | 1950/2000 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2020 m/t | 2000/2050 |
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1500/1600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
|
Fish oil, flexi tank | 2200/2250 |
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.