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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 17, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Monday is a holiday in the US – Presidents' Day – businesses, banks and the CBOT will be closed.
Soybeans and soymeal certainly led the market higher this week with soybeans up by about USD 14 m/t while soymeal was bumping on USD 30 m/t higher. Possible soybean harvest delays in Brazil along with continued dry weather in Argentina pushed soybean prices higher. Also, private estimates are saying that the Brazilian government soybean crop estimates could be 5 million m/t too high. Certainly some good reasons to push up soybean/soymeal prices.
Corn prices were up a little on the week but experts say that the increase was only due to following the excitement in soybeans. When prices start to move higher then everyone seems to want to buy every related product and prices then just move higher --- and, as we know, corn and soymeal are closely related.
US hard red winter wheat also had a strong week as there are concerns that the lack of rainfall is having a very bad effect on the winter crop. Some wheat areas of the US are now classed as "severe drought" areas and there doesn't seem to be any rainfall in the forecast – a smaller crop does look very possible with further price increases.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $32/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1084 | Down 41 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1608 | Down 172 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1273 | Up 23 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 837 | Up 12 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 515 | Down 11 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2018/May 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 201/204 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 231/237 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/188 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203/205 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 196/201 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 205/207 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 181/185 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 183/186 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 208/210 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 185/188 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 192/196 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 172>>169 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180>>178 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 175/179 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 166/171 July/August | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 194/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 178/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 176/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/181 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 171/177 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 207/210 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 438>>418 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 463>>453 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 453/457 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 423/427 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 335/439 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 401/405 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 393/396 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 394/397 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 401/404 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 402/406 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590 >>575 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165 >>155 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 221 >>205 May m/t | x |
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US corn by-product prices were not up as much as expected this week. The rally in soymeal should have pushed prices higher – especially for corn gluten meal and DDGS, not so much for corn gluten feed as it is not as big protein item.
According to the USDA, corn gluten meal prices were up by about USD 5 m/t while corn gluten feed was up by USD 3 or 4 m/t. US export prices for DDGS were seen to be up by about USD 9 to 10 m/t.
Main buyers in Asia are out of the market at present as they don't much like the higher prices and, as we know, buyers are always bearish so the expect lower prices tomorrow.
There is still quite a premium to be paid for any Feb/Mar corn by-products due to short supply with buyers tending to look more in May where prices are USD 10 to 15 m/t lower.
If soymeal prices stay strong then the trend in corn by-products will be to higher prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 to Indonesia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 595/605 m/t CNF Asia USD 930/940 m/t CNF Asia |
Higher soybean/soymeal prices pushed up meat and bone meal prices into Indonesia this week and all other export protein prices are expected to move higher this coming week. With Chinese companies on holidays for a few days, the demand from Asia has slacked off – some of the big feed producers in Asia are Chinese owned but not China based and they too are on holidays – so, things are quiet.
Domestic USA prices are higher – following soymeal's USD 30 m/t price rally this week – and this will move into export markets very quickly. Meat and bone meal prices in the US were only up by about USD 10 m/t but prices will do their best to catch up to soymeal.
For now, export markets are quiet but that wont last and higher prices are coming.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru was not quite as good this week, due to the mini-bans, but there were still landings of close to 12,000 m/t – another 2,500 m/t or so of fishmeal for the market – not a lot but better than nothing.
According to trade reports, there is nothing left to sell in the north of Peru but there are some sellers in the south – but not for much.
China is off on their New Year holidays, so things are very, very quiet --- not even any buyers to talk to.
There has been quite a bit of speculation about the quantity involved in the Peru orders that are being rolled to the next fishing season --- no one seems to have a good idea how much fishmeal may be required to cover this business. If it is a large quantity, then it could have a serious effect on the availability of the next supply and on next seasons prices.
Sorry that there is not much to say this week but with the number one buyer closed on holidays and the sellers with little to sell then there is not much to report.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
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| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,850 | Down $15 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,610 | Down $10 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,605 | Steady |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,655 | Steady |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,835 | Down $25 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1800 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1850 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1950 m/t | 1900/1950 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/2000 m/t | 1950/2000 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2700/2750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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