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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 08, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
So, how did we end up the week – well, corn prices were up by about USD 3 to 4 m/t while soybeans jumped higher by USD 8 to 10 m/t – winter wheat too had an up week moving USD 4 to 6 m/t higher.
Much of the running and jumping in the market this week was totally tied to the US/China situation and stories/rumors/guesses about what was actually happening or about the meaning of the announcements regarding US/China discussions. At the end of the week there was probably more confusion than we started the week with – at least at the start of the week we knew the situation and hoped for improvement.
Corn exports this week were higher than expected which gave a little strength to prices while farmers are said to be holding back in selling corn which also adds a little upward push. There is probably no sense, in a farmer's mind, to be selling corn when the market looks to be moving higher. Some of the corn market experts feel that corn can easily start to creep higher.
Soybeans also had quite a good export week and add that to the possible improvement on US/China trade relations and beans had good reason to rally. Argentina was a good buyer of US soybeans again this week – about 150,000 m/t – and China is reported to be lining up to buy US soybeans for January.
According to a number of trade people, US wheat is in a trading range – up USD 5 or 6 then down the same – and this week just happens to be the up side of the range. The trade says that is was an improvement in export sales that kept wheat prices firm – the success in export business has been very good recently. There are also some stories that winter wheat acreage may be lower than had been expected which would keep some strength in winter wheat prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Corrected | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1372 | Up 141 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2197 | Up 442 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1469 | Up 6 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 953 | Up 9 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 625 | Down 1 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January/March 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 228/230 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 240/244 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 223/226 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/234 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 232/236 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 234/236 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 201/205 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 218/221 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 234/236 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 203/206 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 240/243 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 170/173 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 191/193 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 173/176 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 178/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 207/209 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 188/192 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/168 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 159/161 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 170/173 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 344/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 369/373 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 369/372 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 326/330 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 330/334 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 347/351 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 362/366 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 363/367 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 625>>605 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 189>>179 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 218/224 | x |
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All corn by-product prices were higher this week – helped a little by slightly higher corn prices but mostly higher due to strong export and domestic demand. Winter feeding demand is moving domestic US prices higher along with much stronger soymeal prices. Feed producers in the US can easily swing over to DDGS when corn and soymeal prices rally.
Export markets to Asia are reported to show very good demand with Indonesia's DDGS demand being very, very strong the last month or so.
Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed also had strong price rallies although the export demand was a little quiet this week.
The feeling in the trade seems to be that corn by-products prices will be steady to higher due to the very good seasonal demand and the expectation of a solution to the US/China soybean situation which will push all proteins higher as US soybean/soymeal prices will return to their more normal but higher levels.
The USDA grain crushing report was out this week and DDGS production for October was at just a shade over 1.8 million m/t, up a little from September – corn gluten meal production reached almost 83,000 m/t for October while corn gluten feed was at 257,000 m/t. The amount of corn used for ethanol production was up by close to 4.0% from September.
USA exports of corn by-products – 10 months 2018 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS Jan/Oct 2018 | Corn Gluten Meal
Jan/Oct 2018 | Corn Gluten Feed
Jan/Oct 2018 |
| Australia |
| 5,800 |
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| Bangladesh | 128,800 | 6,000 |
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| Burma | 51,000 | 2,600 |
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| Cambodia | 42,900 |
| 900 |
| Canada | 557,800 | 62,000 |
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| Chile |
| 118,100 |
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| China | 179,700 |
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| Colombia | 154,300 | 77,600 | 22,200 |
| Costa Rica | 68,500 |
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| Denmark |
| 6,600 |
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| Ecuador | 25,400 | 4,300 |
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| Egypt | 192,300 | 133,200 |
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| El Salvador | 52,300 | 3,000 |
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| Guatemala | 48,400 | 6,800 |
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| Honduras | 48,700 | 7,300 |
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| Indonesia | 653,800 | 106,900 | 1,700 |
| Ireland | 322,100 |
| 400,300 |
| Israel | 249,000 | 800 | 228,600 |
| Jamaica | 15,700 |
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| Japan | 395,500 | 12,900 |
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| Malaysia | 58,800 | 23,500 |
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| Mexico | 1,705,500 | 18,100 | 22,800 |
| Morocco | 173,100 |
| 55,300 |
| New Zealand | 228,400 |
| 45,000 |
| Panama | 16,900 |
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| Peru | 18,900 | 7,600 |
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| Philippines | 170,000 | 1,300 | 300 |
| Portugal | 18,500 |
| 35,300 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4,700 | 500 |
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| South Korea | 987,600 |
| 900 |
| Spain | 194,200 |
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| Sri Lanka | 13,100 |
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| Taiwan | 182,200 | 30,100 |
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| Thailand | 863,300 | 26,600 | 800 |
| Tunisia | 42,900 |
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| Turkey | 887,100 |
| 67,900 |
| UK | 228,400 | 1,500 | 91,800 |
| Vietnam | 971,300 | 14,000 |
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@USDA GATS December 2018
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 to Indonesia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia are reported to be lower this week due to low prices from the US hitting the market. US domestic demand has softened so much of the production is moving into the export market and pushing down prices. Asia represents just over 51% of US MBM and poultry meal exports and 55% of feathermeal exports so it is the part of the world that has the major effect on demand and prices.
Poultry meal prices to Asia were a little lower on the week and all prices out of Australia are trading in a very wide range - still due to the Indonesia problems.
USA domestic meat and bone meal prices were also lower on the week due to large supplies but feathermeal is strengthening as demand is up.
USA exports of animal protein – 10 months 2018 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
Jan/Oct 2018 | Feather meal
Jan/Oct 2018 |
| Burma | 3,200 |
|
| Canada | 46,500 | 14,300 |
| Chile | 300 | 25,100 |
| China | 39,100 | 29,300 |
| Colombia | 1,000 | 100 |
| Ecuador | 12,900 |
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| Germany |
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| Honduras | 7,600 |
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| Indonesia | 149,300 | 22,800 |
| Jamaica | 1,200 |
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| Malaysia | 6,900 |
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| Mexico | 164,400 |
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| Peru | 4,600 | 700 |
| Philippines | 19,000 | 700 |
| Sri Lanka | 2,400 |
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| Thailand | 13,100 |
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| Vietnam | 42,100 | 1,800 |
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| Total exports | 516,500 | 94,800 |
@USDA GATS December 2018
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru remains quite good with the total at the end of the week standing at about 1.15 million m/t – 262,000 m/t of fishmeal and 31,000 m/t of fishoil. There has been some bad weather and it is expected that fishing will drop off for some ports.
The Peru fishmeal industry is certainly very happy about the way fishing has gone so far, much better than most had expected. Talk is that the full quota will be reached in early January. The catch to date is certainly enough to cover all the prebooked sales so now it is the time to get some more buyers into the market.
As to buyers, it doesn't look like China will be jumping into the market since their aqua season is over and they have a good backup of fishmeal orders in Peru for December/January shipment.
There hasn't been any change in prices this week – I guess just not enough activity to get the market moving. However, if we don't see some buyers appearing then the producers may just get a little easier in their price ideas.
It was interesting to read the latest USDA 2019 world forecasts on fishmeal this week: total world production at 4.71 million m/t with exports at 2.37 mm/t, total consumption at 4.89 mm/t and ending world stocks standing at 280,000 m/t – certainly shows that almost all fishmeal is consumed each year.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,755 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,750 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1220/1240 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1490/1510 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1520/1540 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1570/1590 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1380/1400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1550/1600 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1650/1700 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1750/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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