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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 02, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices were lower this week – down by about USD 5 m/t. An improvement in Brazil weather is said to have been one of the main factors along with the weakness seen in wheat prices. Some of the trade reports at the end of the week were saying that corn prices should be moving higher not lower and that the current slump could be short lived. Corn export prices were feeling the effect of the continued problems in the Ohio and Mississippi rivers which had pushed CIF Nola prices higher. Hopefully the river system problem will be solved in a week or two.
Soybean prices were also down on the week – by about USD 5 m/t – not too much excitement with export sales and higher crop estimates in Brazil certainly helped to push prices down. On the other hand, the soybean crush levels in the US are at record levels but the gigantic world supply of soybeans in 2019 should keep prices from seeing any strong rallies.
Winter wheat prices dropped by as much as USD 13 m/t this week with experts saying that it was all due to a lack of export business coupled with expected very good winter crops. Supply expectations seem to be much larger than export demand performance.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
It looks like we may be at the bottom for freight prices on grain sized vessels – the big vessels for coal and ore are still weak but Panamax and smaller are showing some price increases. We will probably see grain freight rates moving higher by dollar here and a dollar there.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $34/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $16.50/17.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.50/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $19/20.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 664 | Up 30 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 383 | Down 162 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 863 | Up 197 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 759 | Up 52 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 393 | Up 34 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 210/213 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 220/223 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 223/226 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 229/232 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 237/240 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 220/223 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 187/190 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 217/220 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 195/197 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 174/178 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 201/205 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/164 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 196/199 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/178 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 181/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/181 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 169/173 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 175/179 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 337/341 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 362/366 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 349/352 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 318/321 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 345/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 319/322 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 349/353 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 337/340 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 347/350 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540>>530 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>160 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 229>>219 | x |
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DDGS nearby export prices remained high as the logistics problems are just not going away – trade reports suggest that it will take a few more weeks for the supply situation to catch up with the export demand --- but then they have been saying this for months and the premium for front months just doesn't go away.
Soymeal prices didn't do too much this week so there was no more downward pressure on protein prices but with the lower corn prices this week it is possible that we will see some more weakness in corn byproduct prices next week.
Interesting to see that one of the two main UK ethanol facilities is starting up again – their production will influence UK wheat demand and on the supply of DDGS. Feed wheat prices may increase while DDGS imports may slump.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 to Indonesia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Asia prices for meat and bone meal tended to be about USD 10 m/t lower this week with some reports saying that prices for MBM were as much as USD 30 m/t lower. Exporters from Australia have been out hunting for markets due to the lack of Indonesian approval and the buildup of stocks in Oz. The Jacobsen report this week said that the new Indonesia/Australia approval could be delayed until September. Australian feathermeal and poultry meal export prices also dipped a little lower.
The USA too had lower export prices this week for animal proteins with pet food grade poultry meal being the weakest as supply shortages have disappeared. Feathermeal was also a little lower on the week, again as supply caught up with demand.
Normally, this time of year prices would tend to move a little higher but that just doesn't look too likely to happen this year – just too much supply of protein and too low prices for soymeal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not too much to say this week – still no fishing in the south and the Imarpe Research Cruise is still chugging along. The talk this week is that the new fishing quota will be between 2.0 million m/t and 2.5 mm/t.
Also, nothing to say about new sales as they are few and far between due to a lack of any fishmeal to sell.
Other than the next quota, most of the talk in trade reports has been about El Nino – lots of talk but very little concern over a serious El Nino event. When there is nothing to sell and no fishing then you kind of must make up topics to discuss and why not El Nino.
Peru is looking to increase the export tax on fishmeal from its current level of 0.25% to a sliding scale that reaches 0.98%. The tax could increase by a maximum of about USD 10 m/t which will push up export prices. The higher tax is not expected to have any effect on the sales of Peruvian fishmeal nor is it expected to be burdensome for exporters – buyers will not even notice the price increase.
Away from Peru, it was reported this week that Iceland may not have any capelin fishing for fishmeal this season due to very, very low levels of fish. If there is no capelin fishing quota, it is said that the cost to the industry and the economy would be about USD 170 million.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,745 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,500 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,740 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1190/1200 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1250/1260 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1360/1370 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1420/1430 m/t | 1430/1440 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1460/1470 m/t | 1470/1480 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t | 1520/1530 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1700/1750 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1750/1800 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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