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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 03, 2019
Even though the current corn crop condition is at its lowest level in 5 years, the market seems to feel that condition will improve greatly and that crop yields will be very good. One reason why the bears are active is that for corn the current weather seems to be just about perfect and there is nothing like perfect weather for corn silking and pollination.
There is also lots of competition in the export market for US corn which means fighting for every scrap of corn export business. However, with the hot weather in Europe this could reduce their crops and increase their import demand. Europe won't take US corn, but increased EU corn import demand might reduce the Black Sea corn availability for other markets.
Soybean prices did manage to move a little higher on Friday but still had a down week. Weather for the soybean crop is very good but trade weather is not so good. The US/China situation just doesn't seem to get any better – just worse – and soybeans are the item that gets hurt the most.
Soybean crop condition is, much like corn, at its lowest level in 5 years, but, also like corn, many experts feel that conditions will improve very quickly – especially with the good weather that seems to be going to be around for a while.
At present there seems to be very little reason to expect prices to move higher.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $17/18.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 | Down $7.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1788 | Down 149 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3492 | Down 155 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1779 | Down 330 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 968 | Down 37 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 517 | Up 2 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2019
Note: with the wheat price indications shown below --- US wheat prices are with wheat protein based on 12% moisture while other wheat is based on a "dry matter" basis. This would mean, that for comparison, the US HRW at 11% protein would actually be about 12.5% protein on a "dry matter" basis. (this clarification is courtesy of Peter Lloyd at US Wheat Associates)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 210/214 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 207/212 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 189/192 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 195/198 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 193/196 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 192/194 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 192/195 Dec/Jan | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 186/189 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 178/180 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 180/183 Dec/Jan | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 177/181 Sep/Nov | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 196/199 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 159/162 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 194/196 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 176/179 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180/183 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/174 Sep/Oct | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/153 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/182 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 304/307 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 339/342 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 308/311 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 356/359 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355/358 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 495/505 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 178/183 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 205/212 | X |
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All corn byproducts slipped a little lower this week as both corn and soymeal prices continued to drop. From a protein point of view, as long as corn and soymeal remain weak it is not expected that there will be any price rise in corn byproduct prices.
US FOB DDGS prices continue to move lower as all the logistics problems on the Mississippi River system are solved. Also, the trade feels that export buyers may just wait a little to see how much further down DDGS prices may drop. Compared to recent prices DDGS along with corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal are getting very attractive. So, we should see buying interest pick up one of these days.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 355/375 m/t CNF Asia USD 395/315 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/410 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices in Asia seem to be creeping a little higher this week – at least for meat and bone meal. All beef MBM seems to be the strongest.
Australia had been hoping to be approved for Indonesian shipments once again, but the situation looks to be dragging on and on. Reports say that changes in staff in the Indonesian government are probably slowing things down.
Not much change in US domestic prices but feathermeal prices are slipping and there is a feeling that poultry meal could also move lower. On the other hand, pork meal in the US is in short supply and prices there are moving higher.
With vegetable protein prices continuing to slip lower it is difficult to expect any rally in animal protein products.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It looks like the final number for the northern Peru fishing is at 2,047,000 m/t, just 53,000 m/t short of the full quota – not bad at all.
According to a couple of trade reports, the unsold stock may be higher than had been expected and may be at 130,000 m/t. The trade is also indicating that Peru fishmeal prices have dropped by about USD 60 m/t due mainly to a lack of new buying from China.
China seems to have a very, very good stock of fishmeal – perhaps "good" is not the correct word – the stock is actually quite large. The effect of African Swine Fever and the delayed aqua season are all contributing to the slower withdrawal of stocks. Consumption of fishmeal in China is expected to drop by as much as 400,000 m/t this year – much of which will affect Peru.
Looking at the China imports for the first 6 months of 2019 – total imports are at about 780,000 m/t with about 430,000 m/t coming from Peru. Vietnam is the second largest shipper to China at about 55,000 m/t followed by Russia at almost 48,000 m/t the Mauritania at 38,000 m/t. If you want the full list of countries supplying fishmeal to China just drop me a note.
For those who follow the fishmeal/fishoil industry, Indian fishmeal/fishoil producers have decided to go on strike as the government has changed sales tax methods but have back dated the change to July 2017 which will cost producers a 5% tax for 2017/2018/2019. According to the trade association, fishmeal was supposed to remain tax free. There are 56 fishmeal/fishoil producers in India.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,850 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,575 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,880 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1270/1290 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1410/1430 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1500/1520 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2100/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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