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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 14, 2019
Ah, there is nothing like a USDA WASDE week to get the blood flowing and the market excited. As the week ended, we had US soybeans up by about USD 15 m/t with soymeal following at about USD 10 m/t higher, corn prices too were up but just by USD 5 m/t or so. Soft red winter wheat was up by about USD 8 m/t with hard red winter up only USD 3 m/t.
The rally in corn prices after WASDE was a surprise to most as the numbers didn't seem to justify any bullish attitude for corn. Perhaps next week will see a Monday drop back to the pre-WASDE price level. The corn harvest has started in the south of the US so this should put some pressure on price, especially cash prices.
For soybeans, the WASDE report was supportive along with the announcement of 5 million m/t of US soybeans to China at a reduced import tariff. Reading the experts reports at the end of the week there seems to be the feeling that this week's rally in soybean prices will not hold and that we could see prices weaken next week.
Looking at wheat, market experts were saying that there was no fundamental reason for this week's rally, just that the market was oversold and once some shorts started to cover then everyone jumped on and covered their shorts – especially for soft red winter.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
|
|
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|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $22/23.00 |
| X |
|
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $22/22.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
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|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $66/67.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $63/64.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $32/33.00 | Up $10.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 2462 | Down 150 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4547 | Down 402 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2133 | Down 83 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1299 | Down 39 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 691 | Up 2 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 214/217 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 196/200 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/188 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 186/189 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/190 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 178/181 Dec/Jan | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 179/182 | X |
|
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 173/176 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 168/171 Dec/Jan | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 177/180 | X |
|
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/163 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 149/152 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/158 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 182/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 155/158 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/148 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 168/170 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 347/350 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 300/303 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 339/342 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 304/307 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 339/342 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 344/347 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 480/490 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 172/175 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 199/204 | X |
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Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 355/375 m/t CNF Asia USD 395/415 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 405/415 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia no prices USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia |
The animal protein export markets were very quiet this week – most buyers seemed to be out of the market. Perhaps waiting to see what the US protein meal markets would do after the WASDE report.
Supplies of animal proteins in New Zealand, Australia and the US are said to be very good and, in the US, the low prices for pet food grade poultry meal seem to be looking higher. The Jacobsen Report this week says that there are reports that the spot poultry meal price in some locations is up by as much as USD 85 m/t.
Jacobsen was also saying that, due to low prices, meat and bone meal in the US is being used to the maximum in animal feed formulations. The jump in US soymeal prices late in the week will probably give room for an increase in meat and bone meal prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Very quiet in Peru. Still no fishing in the south of the country an no results as yet on surveys for the next northern fishing season.
There is still some business being done as the last of the available stocks are being sold. Looks like the season will end with empty cupboards as all will be sold – even the floor sweepings. Buyers are looking at the new season and seem to want to buy at USD 20 to 30 m/t below the levels shown below. Some say that there has been some 68 pro Super Prime business done at USD 1330. Sales for the next season are estimated to be getting close to the 100,000 m/t level.
As to prices for the next season, while buyers are looking lower, sellers are trying to hold firm at current levels. It is going to depend mainly on the situation in China and how much fishmeal they will need – will African Swine Fever get worse and spread through Asia, will it cause a drop in all feed consumption.
As I said, markets are quiet and all we do now is speculate on what the future will bring.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,845 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,385 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,840
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1200/1220 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1300/1320 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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