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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 14, 2019
So, the week ended with a China related rally in prices on Friday. The rally was more on expectations than on facts as the exact terms of any US/China agreement are still no known. The US is going to reduce tariffs by 25% or 7.5% on some items with no actual items detailed. News reports had China lined up to purchase an additional USD 32 billion of ag products over the next 2 years.
At the end of the week, soybeans were up by about USD 7 m/t with corn almost unchanged on the week and US winter wheat up by another USD 3 to 5 m/t.
On the corn side of things, the China and Canada/US/Mexico agreements made buyers a little bullish. Some reports say that Mexico could have a very strong year for corn imports since US corn is very well priced into Mexico. Farmer selling of corn was limited this week which also helped to keep corn prices steady to higher.
And with soybeans, it was China, China, China that pushed prices higher as everyone is looking at increased soybean business to China – but we just don't know for sure yet. However, with US soybeans priced very well against Brazil the feeling is that China will buy more US beans.
US winter wheat prices just continued higher on the expected crop situation for 2020 and, for now, no one seems to feel that there will be any weakness in wheat prices. World wheat prices have all moved higher and this will help keep US prices firm.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $47/48.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $46/47.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $16/17.00 |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
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| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
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| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
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| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
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| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
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| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $43/44.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $23/24.00 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1355 | Down 203 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2455 | Down 818 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1467 | Up 120 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 823 | Down 12 |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 509 | Up 2 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 20202/March 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 243/245 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 216/218 |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 209/211 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 213/215 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 211/213 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 208/210 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 199/202 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/207 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/191 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 179/182 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/190 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/173 |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 191/193 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 176/179 |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 190/192 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180/183 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/174 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/145 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 178/181 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 356/359 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 325/328 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 357/360 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 326/329 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 357/360 |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 353/356 |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 370/372 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 364/367 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 525/530 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 202/205 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 211/216 m/t |
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All corn byproducts seem to want to move higher this week but there was not very much business being done so the prices may not be 100% accurate. US corn and soymeal cash prices were both up a little on the week, but the byproduct business seems to still be having some logistics problems which is keeping prices steady to higher.
Corn gluten meal is a bit of a surprise as it just seems to be able to move a little higher every week. Buyers have backed off booking anything for now, as most feel that prices will slip lower once we get through Christmas and New Year holidays.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia - adjusted USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia - adjusted USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia - adjusted USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia – adjusted |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 to Indonesia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices into Asia for meat and bone meal moved a little higher again this week as the demand for the next few weeks is very good. Supplies from OZ and NZ are very large, but prices are holding steady or moving higher. The cattle slaughter in OZ is close to the highest level for 2019.
USA export prices were steady on the week, but domestic prices were weaker, especially for meat and bone meal – as supply was running ahead of demand. Only pet food grade poultry meal looks to have a bullish future as pet food demand is picking up.
The Jacobsen Report was saying that domestic animal protein prices may just move up a little due to the holiday period and more difficulty in shipping, but stocks are good and it is only logistics that will move prices higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The total catch up to Thursday is at 900,000 m/t as the weekly catch slipped to only 40,000 m/t. However, some trade reports are saying that the fishing will improve this week due to an expected "kelvin wave".
Not much business to report – buyers seem to be at the price levels shown below while seller are about USD 50 m/t higher.
Reports out of China say that stocks on hand are very good and that they are not looking to being buyers for now. The trade doesn't expect to see China back in the market for fishmeal until after the Chinese New Year in February.
For now, all the interest will be on the landings in Peru and then in 2020 on some new sales. Everyone is disappointed with the current catch and all are hoping that things will improve – but time is a little short to land another 1.9 million m/t of fish.
The MSI Ceres report was saying that European fishmeal is quite competitive with South American prices – at least in Europe – so there will probably be little or no Peru business to Europe.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,640 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,390 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,600
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ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1110/1120 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1150/1160 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1200/1210 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1250/1260 m/t | 1240/1260 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1310 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1350/1360 m/t | 1340/1360 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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