-------------------------
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 09, 2021
So, what do we have at the end of this week – USA corn prices are up by USD 5 or 6 m/t, soybeans are up by USD 22 to 25 m/t, soymeal is up by USD 11 to 14 m/t. Only US wheat prices were fairly quiet with winter wheat down by about USD 3 m/t and spring wheat up by USD 3 m/t.
Corn prices are said to be higher on the expectation that the WASDE report will show lower corn stocks. A large percentage of the Argentina corn crop is seeing severe drought conditions with rain said to be a requirement for a decent crop but that it must appear in the next 3 weeks. Argentina is also not approving any more corn shipments through February which should move some business to the US.
Soybeans too were somewhat WASDE driven, as the market expects the stocks to be lowered by the USDA, which is certainly bullish. However, Brazil is expecting a massive soybean crop just not for a while, but it is reported that about 58% of the new soybean crop has been presold. So perhaps a massive crop may not push prices lower.
Wheat was also WASDE driven with winter wheat lower on the expectation of reported higher plantings while spring wheat just seemed to have quite strong buying interest with no major change in fundamentals seen.
We will all have to wait for the USDA WASDE report on Tuesday to see which way the market is going to move.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
11 months to December 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 73,900 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 1,136,300 |
|
| Brazil | 765,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 215,500 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 24,900 |
|
|
| Canada |
| 1,622,300 | 5,700 | 219,200 | 1,006,700 |
| Chile | 423,400 |
|
|
|
|
| China |
| 5,404,500 | 4,736,500 | 27,749,600 |
|
| Colombia | 539,900 | 4,773,000 |
| 474,400 | 1,270,200 |
| Costa Rica |
| 796,100 |
| 258,600 |
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 20,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep | 184,000 | 509,500 |
|
| 418,100 |
| Ecuador | 440,800 |
|
|
| 570,100 |
| El Salvador | 119,200 | 528,000 |
|
| 212,200 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 3,488,600 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 63,600 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 320,500 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| France |
|
|
| 102,000 |
|
| Guatemala | 586,000 | 1,182,900 |
|
| 426,900 |
| Honduras | 231,200 | 701,600 |
|
| 274,300 |
| Indonesia | 1,125,600 |
|
| 2,092,600 |
|
| Israel |
| 488,400 |
| 87,800 | 107,200 |
| Italy | 760,900 |
|
| 392,500 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 236,800 |
|
| 87,300 |
| Japan | 2,434,900 | 9,640,200 | 219,600 | 2,140,100 | 219,500 |
| Kenya |
|
| 17,800 |
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 11,400 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 301,900 |
|
| 555,000 |
|
| Mexico | 2,910,600 | 13,367,900 | 263,600 | 4,528,500 | 1,621,700 |
| Morocco |
| 63,600 |
|
| 400,700 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 2,625,800 |
|
| New Zealand |
| 36,600 |
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 1,292,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 331,100 |
|
| 113,700 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 668,000 |
|
| Panama |
| 421,800 |
|
| 163,000 |
| Peru | 187,200 | 689,900 |
| 231,800 | 262,900 |
| Philippines | 3,092,400 | 88,800 | 600 |
| 2,219,000 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 219,600 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 774,600 |
| 290,100 |
|
| Somalia |
|
| 46,800 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
| 4,200 |
|
|
| South Korea | 1,241,500 | 2,982,000 | 1,000 | 584,700 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 718,600 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 156,800 |
| Sudan |
|
| 161,600 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 1,124,200 | 780,900 |
| 1,270,600 |
|
| Thailand | 689,700 |
|
| 1,093,400 | 16,600 |
| Trinidad |
| 76,300 |
|
|
|
| UK |
|
|
| 156,100 |
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 178,300 |
| Vietnam | 508,600 | 221,600 |
| 893,900 | 131,700 |
| Yemen | 741,100 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
| 30,800 |
|
|
| Misc. | 5,480,500 | 1,666,800 | 43,800 | 2,263,800 | 1,769,600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 25,245,800 | 47,554,100 | 5,713,800 | 54,002,600 | 11,935,400 |
@USDA GATS January 2021
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Sorry, no Baltic Dry Index info this week – will be back again next week.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $16/17.00 | Steady |
|
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $33/33.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1606 |
| X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2548 |
| X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1559 |
| X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1029 |
| X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 656 |
| x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2021/March 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 283>>280 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 279>>276 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 272/275 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 277/280 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 267/270 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 275/278 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 262/265 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 266/269 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 261/263 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 233/236 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 225/228 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 238>>231 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 253>>244 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 249>>225 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 267>>233 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 260/262 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 241/244 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 240/243 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 247/250 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 194/197 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 315/317 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 544>>536 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 569>>561 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 537/540 spot | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 518>>483 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 543/546 spot | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 513>>480 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 544>>536 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 578>>520 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 534>>524 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 527/530 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/695 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/245 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/305 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
DDGS prices are up again this week as are corn gluten meal prices – the rally in corn and soybean prices is the major driver for market prices. The US Grains Council's report this week was saying that DDGS prices were up by USD 30 m/t on FOB NOLA.
Corn gluten meal prices seem to want to move up by USD 20 m/t or so every week but on a protein unit basis the current price levels are about where they should be versus soymeal. With a little division you see that 1 percent protein is just over USD 11 for both CGM and soymeal.
The trade is not expecting any lower prices in the near term – perhaps as we get into April/May we could see some price weakness as the supply of soybeans from South America should help prices to slip lower.
USA exports of corn by-products – 11 months to November 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 5,000 |
|
| Bangladesh | 146,500 | 23,000 | 1,000 |
| Burma | 50,200 | 1,700 |
|
| Canada | 361,800 | 48,300 |
|
| Chile |
| 122,700 |
|
| China | 237,600 |
|
|
| Colombia | 203,900 | 86,900 | 20,500 |
| Costa Rica | 73,200 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 2,800 |
|
| Egypt | 183,800 | 101,400 | 2,600 |
| El Salvador | 50,100 | 5,900 |
|
| Guatemala | 49,700 | 5,500 |
|
| Honduras |
| 6,100 |
|
| Indonesia | 841,700 | 113,800 | 7,800 |
| Ireland | 279,600 |
| 302,900 |
| Israel | 190,500 |
| 168,400 |
| Japan | 436,100 | 16,600 |
|
| Malaysia | 41,700 | 45,000 |
|
| Mexico | 1,586,100 | 13,500 | 14,500 |
| Morocco | 155,500 |
| 50,600 |
| New Zealand | 261,400 |
| 37,100 |
| Oman |
| 500 |
|
| Peru |
| 8,700 |
|
| Philippines | 273,800 | 2,200 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 1,150,700 | 600 |
|
| Spain | 64,700 |
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 4,800 | 300 |
| Taiwan | 227,200 | 31,700 | 100 |
| Thailand | 827,500 | 26,600 | 3,000 |
| Tunisia |
| 1,700 |
|
| Turkey | 734,100 |
| 31,900 |
| UK | 104,200 |
| 26,900 |
| Vietnam | 1,185,700 | 17,100 | 2,700 |
| Misc. | 663,100 | 19,200 | 24,400 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 10,610,900 | 711,300 | 700,000 |
@USDA GATS January 2021
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 920/940 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF China USD 550/700 to Indonesia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 980/1,000 m/t CNF Asia |
Trade reports say that there is a very wide spread on meat and bone meal prices into Indonesia with buyers willing to pay a hefty premium for quick delivery – close to USD 150 m/t over later delivered product.
In general, the animal protein market has moved higher as the "soymeal" effect hits prices and all proteins move up. Prices out of New Zealand are up by close to 10%, Australia isn't up quite as much but trade reports say that this may just be due to continued slow business after all the holidays.
USA domestic prices are higher as buyer get back into the market after the holidays. Demand from the pet food industry is said to be very strong.
I don't see anyone expecting lower prices – certainly not as soymeal continues to rally.
USA exports of animal protein – 11 months to November 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma | 2,300 |
|
| Canada | 50,400 | 6,100 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 22,200 |
| China | 171,600 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,500 |
|
| Ecuador | 26,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 8,500 |
|
| Honduras | 8,500 | 1,000 |
| Indonesia | 196,800 | 37,800 |
| Malaysia | 7,400 |
|
| Mexico | 177,000 |
|
| Peru | 8,700 | 1,000 |
| Philippines | 57,700 | 2,300 |
| Thailand | 18,700 |
|
| Vietnam | 148,700 | 10,200 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 889.900 | 82,400 |
@USDA GATS January 2021
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Total catch in Peru is now at 2.15 million m/t on the 7th of January – well on the way to the 2.78 mm/t quota. It is going to be very close come the end of the month. The catch has to average 26,400 m/t per day to fill the quota --- so, it looks like the full quota may be possible as this week the daily catch ranged from a low of 24,000 m/t up to 41,000 m/t. There are three mini-bans in force until the 10th of January so that may make reaching the daily target a little more difficult.
The new sales have picked up again, but the market doesn't seem to be too sure where the prices are – some say lower, as I have shown below, while other reports say that prices are higher. The trade reports that sales are now up to about 520,000 m/t which means that producers are now a little oversold based on the catch to date.
There was a comment in reports that other Asian buyers had been holding off in the hopes of lower prices but that they may have to in the market soon.
The MSI-Ceres report this week was commenting that the continues good fishing has not led to a bearish market as demand from China is very steady. To me it looks like prices could easily move higher as we get closer to the end of fishing.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,675 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,515 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,735 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1230/1250 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1310/1330 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t | 1400/1420 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1430/1450 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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