-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 13, 2021
So, here we are just after USDA WASDE week and we see prices lower for most everything. Soymeal was the weakest item this week dropping by USD 18 m/t for May futures. Soybeans were down by about USD 7 m/t with corn for May only being down by about USD 3 m/t. US hard red winter wheat was down by USD 8 m/t with US spring wheat down by USD 3 or 4 m/t.
On Friday it looked like both soybeans and soymeal could move lower but some bullish comments on the crops in Argentina and Brazil steadied the market. There were some comments in the trade that soybeans will probably stay at or near the current levels for a while, but some others were saying that next week could see soybeans/soymeal move lower again.
Corn prices were being supported by lower crop forecasts out of Argentina and worries about the next crop in Brazil. Heavy rains in Brazil are slowing the soybean harvest and delaying the planting of the next corn crop – the safrinha (second) crop. As with soybeans, some experts see corn trading in a range for the next while until we see what is actually happening in South America.
Snow and rain in important wheat areas helped to push prices lower. The moisture is much needed and should help winter wheat crops and perhaps spring wheat too. Experts were saying at week's end that wheat prices could easily move lower in coming weeks.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $55/56.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $48/48.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Down $7.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1960 | Up 131 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2019 | Up 235 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2242 | Up 1 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 2077 | Up 160 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1283 | Up 152 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2021/June 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 281>>263 new crop | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 275/278 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 280/283 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 282/285 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 284/287 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 278/280 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 264/267 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/282 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 262/264 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 259/262 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 245/248 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 249>>244 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 263/267 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 227/230 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 243>>235 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 272/274 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/268 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 268/271 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/263 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 242>>210 new crop | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 338>>332 new crop | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 461/464 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 486/489 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 482>>469 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 422>>419 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 481>>463 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 425/428 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 550>>544 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 528>>522 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 519/522 new crop | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 557/560 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 810/830 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275/280 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 295>>285 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
Corn gluten meal prices were actually higher this week from the USA as the little drop in prices last week seemed to get export buyers interested in new shipments. There don't seem to be any exports forecasting lower prices on CGM as demand is just too steady.
Corn gluten feed export prices moved a little lower on the week following the drop in corn and soymeal prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 550/570 m/t CNF China USD 580/700 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 1,000/1,030 m/t CNF Asia |
Asian demand for meat and bone meal slacked off this week, some say due to all the pre-Ramadan business being booked. However, there was the comment in the Jacobsen report that MBM prices to China were higher this week. Tighter supplies from Australia are said to be the reason for any strengthening in prices. Poultry meal prices into Asia were steady but it is reported that feather meal exporters are offering slightly lower prices.
USA domestic prices for all animal proteins were steady this week but the sudden drop in soymeal prices could force animal protein prices lower next week. Export buyers are also said to be looking for lower USA prices for animal proteins or they will switch to soymeal.
There was also talk that a shortage of export containers is causing a serious buildup of some animal protein supplies which could put added downward pressure on domestic US prices.
This week. due to the drop in soymeal prices, no one is looking for higher prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the South of Peru is up to 55,000 m/t against the 409,000 m/t quota, which gives about 12,500 m/t of added fishmeal supply. Unfortunately, having the supply in the South is very difficult for export shipping logistics – especially this year with container shortages and vessel cancellations.
The fishmeal market in Peru is very quiet and it is reported that fishmeal prices in China are dropping which could mean that pre-season new sales (assuming that there will be more) may have to be at lower price levels. MSI Ceres mentioned in their report that they expect "another round of futures sales will soon take place" --- which way will this move prices?
According to the latest estimates on China fishmeal business – from JCI China – fishmeal imports will be up by 4% in 2021 to 1.48 million m/t -- consumption will be up by the same percentage to 1.92 million m/t.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,845 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,515 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,565 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,875 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1550 m/t | 1520/1540 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1570/1590 m/t | 1570/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1640 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1670/1690 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1750/1850 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1800/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1850/1950 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.