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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 18, 2021
Harvest weather in the USA looks good for the next little while which should get the farmers really cranking out the crop. The markets ended the week a little lower as harvest pressure tried to push prices down.
Cash prices in the USA for corn were a bit up and down with some areas seeing lower cash levels while other took a jump higher --- seems to be a lot of emotion in the market. Soybean cash prices moved higher probably due to the new China interest and the expectation of more to come.
Wheat prices slipped a little lower on Friday but still had a strong up week and no one much seems to be forecasting any lower longer-term prices for wheat. There is just too much demand and bullish news in world wheat markets. While a few producing countries, like Australia, are expecting record wheat crops there is still a very high level of international demand for wheat and the demand is keeping the prices firm.
Russell Marine in New Orleans sent out quite a few very detailed pictures of the aftermath of hurricane Ida on the grain and oilseed transportation and loading facilities in the Mississippi River --- after looking at the pictures it certainly seems that it is going to be quite a while before everything in the river gets back to normal operations.
Russian export tax – September 22 to 28 – wheat USD 50.90 m/t – down USD 1.60, barley USD 31.00 m/t – down USD 2.10 m/t and corn USD 47.80 m/t – down USD 1.20 m/t.
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $66/67.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $81/82.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | No price |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 | Z |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No price |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $43/43.50 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | No prices |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 4275 | Up 411 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 6420 | Up 853 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 3904 | Up 309 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (45,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 3307 | Up 137 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 1861 | Up 54 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2021/December 2021
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 299/303 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 335>>320 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 294/299 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 301/306 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 301/307 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 303/308 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 280/285 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 286/290 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 278/280 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 266/269 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 251/255 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/258 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 276>>269 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 287>>281 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 238/244 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 265/268 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 276/279 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 263/266 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 263/266 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260/264 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 220/225 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 295/298 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 422/426 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 457/461 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 477/480 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 411>>398 new crop | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 481/484 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 425>>400 new crop | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 523>>518 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 545>>525 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 559>>530 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 573/576 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 660/680 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/250 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/275 m/t | x |
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USA DDGS prices were steady this week but both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed moved higher. With CGM it is almost impossible to get export CNF prices due to serious container problems. Exporters wont quote prices without freight in hand but container freight is very, very difficult to find.
Depending on the destination the spread between FOB USA and CNF destination is running in excess of USD 100 m/t.
The interesting part of the market is that the USA cash prices have not really changed – it is the freight and logistic costs that are pushing prices higher.
Egypt starts its new computerized import and clearance procedures on October 01 and while all shippers are aware of the new system most are expecting a variety of problems as things get started. Hopefully, it will not be nearly as bad as we are all expecting. Egypt has been working on and evaluating the new system for many months now so many of the kinks on the Egypt side should be eliminated – now it is mainly kinks from the supplier side.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 595/615 m/t CNF China USD 560/580 to Indonesia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1010 m/t CNF Asia |
The Jacobsen report this week says that animal protein prices into major markets in Asia are being push higher again this week by increased container freight rates. Australian supplies of meat and bone meal are reported to be getting tight due to a drop in cattle slaughter – much of which is said to be due to COVID restrictions.
Animal protein prices in the USA are lower, pushed down by dropping exports and higher domestic supply. Export logistics are very difficult due to container problems and buyers are not as active due to much higher CNF prices and long shipment delays.
It is not an easy time for animal protein export markets at present.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no landings in the South of Peru.
According to trade reports the current IMARPE research cruise is running a little behind due to bad weather.
Reports say that there is a "moderate" risk of an El Nina event into early 2022 but no risk of an El Nino. According to a table published by ENFEN, the El Nino/Nina study service, all should be normal for at least until the end of 2021.
There are stories in Peru about new business being booked for the next season – experts say at slightly higher prices. Producers are still very hesitant about booking business as the freight costs are very, very difficult to forecast. At present, no one is expecting any weakness in container freight prices for the balance of 2021. The feeling is that prices will go higher before they go lower.
MSI Ceres pointed out a problem this week with ethoxyquin antioxidant that is used to treat fishmeal --- it all comes from China where the container congestion is the worst and they say that container rates from China to Peru have increased from USD 2500 per box to USD 15000 --- that will certainly push prices higher.
Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of August reached almost 943,000 m/t with 891,000 m/t going to Asia – 816,000 m/t to China alone.
MSI Ceres also published an interesting table on Peru's exports and the share to China --- back in 2010 to 2014, China was less than 60% of fishmeal exports, as low as 51%, but since then has always been above 70% and up to over 80% several years. Has the fishmeal business become too dependent on China?
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,990 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,485 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,010 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1380/1400 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2050/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2021 Wayne S. Bacon
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