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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 12, 2022
2022 so far has certainly been a period of higher and higher prices for grains, oilseeds and proteins and it doesn't look like it will change in the near term. This week we had soybeans up by USD 10 m/t, soymeal at least USD 12 m/t higher, corn up by USD 11 m/t and even wheat was higher with winter wheat up by about USD 13 m/t and spring wheat even higher – up by USD 17 m/t.
Wheat prices are said to all be up due to the Russia/Ukraine situation and the concern over supplies of wheat from the Black Sea through 2022. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter with the Ukraine not too far behind so any problems in the area could have serious implications for world wheat supply.
Corn and soybean prices are moving higher on the weather situation in South America and the lack of rainfall that may just have a serious effect on Argentina and Brazil crops. Of course, both corn and soybean prices were also pushed higher about concern for the situation in the Black Sea. The Black Sea effect on corn is valid but on soybeans/soymeal is just emotional as the region is not a major supplier of buyer of soybeans/soymeal.
If there is some calming down of the Russia/Ukraine situation then it is expected that there will be some retreat of prices to former levels but the longer the situation looks difficult the higher prices will probably go.
And for February 16 to February 23, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 92.80 m/t – down USD 0.40, barley USD 74.10 m/t – up USD 0.80 m/t and corn USD 52.70 m/t – no change.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $3.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $54/55.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $4.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $4.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – Supramax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handi | $55/56.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Lakes – Europe – Handi | $65/66.00 | Ports closed |
| US Lakes – Morocco – Handi | $68/69.00 | Ports closed |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handy | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: Supra | $64/65.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan: Supra | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.68.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia: Supra | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Indonesia: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $51/53.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Turkey: Izmir: coaster | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster- | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: Handi | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya: Handi | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Yemen: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax | 1977 | Up 554 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1857 | Up 615 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2403 | Up 607 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2158 | Up 564 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1168 | Up 178 |
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| Freightos Container Index | $9628 | Down 32 |
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Capesize – 100,000 DWT plus, Panamax – 60,00 to 80,000 DWT, Supramax 45,000 to 60,000 DWT, Handisize 25,000 DWT.
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2022/May 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 346>>326 June | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 376>>368 June | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 305>>286 June | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 313>>295 June | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 319>>300 June | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 312/314 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 291/309 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 296>>278 June | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 303/305 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 295/298 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 295/300 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 268/272 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 304>>289 June | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 317>>311 June | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 273>>259 June | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 301>>269 July | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 299/301 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 288/291 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 287/290 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/288 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 265/270 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 340/345 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 557>>530 June | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 587>>560 June | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 563/568 Mar/Apr | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 510>>499 June | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 572/577 Mar/Apr | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 549>>512 June | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 627>>617 June | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 626>>607 June | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 621>>615 June | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 587/592 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 865>>855 m/t May | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 290>>280 m/t May | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 335>>310 m/t May | X |
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USA corn byproducts pries are steady to higher again this week with DDGS showing the highest gains of the week. Comments in trade reports this week were that "there is no cheap protein" and buyers are having to book their US export supplies at very high prices. Transportation rates in the USA took quite a jump this week and this helped to push up the FOB export port prices. Export buyers are now looking at May/June shipments when there are no more winter logistics problems and prices are expected to be a little more reasonable.
With soymeal prices up by another USD 30 m/t again this week there is little or no chance for lower prices for the time being.
According to the US Grains Council report FOB NOLA prices for DDGS for March/April were up by over USD 15 m/t this week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 690/710 m/t CNF China USD 690/710 to Indonesia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia |
The move higher in soymeal prices is helping to keep animal protein prices steady to higher in all markets. People are just having to pay up to get their protein supply.
Chinese New Year will come to an end next week so we could see a sudden increase in export demand which will certainly help keep international prices strong.
USA domestic demand was strong this week as buyers were looking everywhere for the lowest cost protein for their use. The never-ending rally in soymeal prices and all other vegetable proteins is making it very difficult for buyers to find any inexpensive protein. Buyers are switching their buying patterns for only a couple of dollars per m/t.
Export buyers don't have the advantage of quickly switching supply to less cost protein so are having to just pay current market prices and hope for some future price weakness. No one sees any weakness for the time being.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru is now showing total catch at 51,600 m/t which leaves 435,000 m/t on the quota. Catch was down somewhat due to mini-bans on fishing in some areas.
There should be more buyer interest next week as the Chinese New Year holidays come to an end and everyone gets back to work. Buying activity in Peru has been very limited with no increase in the advance sales level.
A couple of trade reports did say that fishmeal prices looked to be about USD 10 to 20 m/t higher although this may just be seller's hopes and not buyer's interest. However, with ever higher protein prices, an increase wouldn't be much of a surprise.
Numbers issued by JCI in China show that Chinese fishmeal imports and consumption could be lower in 2022 --- imports could drop by almost 400,000 m/t with total consumption down by as much as 200,000 m/t. Part of the decrease in fishmeal imports will be due to the higher levels of stocks in China – up by about 100,000 m/t.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,710 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,655 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,695 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,705 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1720 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 m/t | 1750/1770 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1800/1820 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3500/3550 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3400/3500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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