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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 14, 2022
Soybeans and wheat were the market leaders in price this week as reaction to the numbers in the USDA WASDE report pushed prices higher. Tight supplies, strong world demand and crop worries all helped to push prices higher. Soybeans moved up by close to USD 10 m/t for new crop beans while wheat price increases varied from up USD 25 m/t for US soft red winter wheat to up USD 40 m/t for hard red winter wheat and up by USD 45 m/t for US spring wheat.
New crop corn prices were also up a little but only about USD 5 m/t while US soymeal prices were steady to a little lower.
This week's WASDE report was seen by everyone to be very bullish for most everything but especially for wheat . Wheat crops in Europe and parts of the USA are suffering from serious drought while other parts of the USA wheat area are drowning in too much rainfall.
There is also some expectation that US farmers will switch some of their plantings from corn to soybeans due to better prices for beans and the shorter soybean growing season. Farmers can plant soybeans a little later if the weather is not quite right these days.
It is interesting to see that futures traders are reducing their positions on corn and soybeans while continuing to add to wheat positions. After this week's rally in wheat there must be a great deal of profit built up for the longs in the wheat futures markets --- wheat futures may face a sell-off if these longs get at all nervous and want to protect their profits.
May 18 to May 24, Russian export grain taxes are at: wheat USD 111.90 m/t – down USD 2.40, barley USD 76.50 m/t – up USD 2.40 m/t and corn USD 77.30 m/t – up USD 0.00 m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $74/75.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $75/76.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $76/77.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $81/82.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $84/85.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $92/93.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $71/72.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $66/67.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $68.69.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $92/93.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 3104 | Up 386 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3947 | Up 1053 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 3283 | Up 108 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2752 | Up 23 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1673 | Up 33 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 8236 | Down 474 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2022/August 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 480>>465 September | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 532>>527 September | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 390/393 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 390>>380 August | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 438/441 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 450/460 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 370>>360 August | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 411/413 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 380/385 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | No prices | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 380/385 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 345/350 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 375>>365 August | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 295/300 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 320/325 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 390/393 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 335/340 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 315/320 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 375/380 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 485/490 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520/525 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 495/500 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 460>>455 September | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/505 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 465>>455 September | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 655>>615 September | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 635>>600 September | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 670>>655 September | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 840>>830 m/t Aug | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>330 m/t Aug | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>320 m/t Sep | x |
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Corn byproduct prices all moved a little lower this week due mainly to lower demand levels reported by the trade. On the supply side, production of all corn byproducts has been quite strong the past couple of weeks which is adding to the pressure on prices.
According to trade reports US DDGS export prices are down by as much as USD 20 m/t – lower prices should get buyers back to being interested.
Corn prices weren't down this week, so the lower prices are just a market readjustment to recognize the current supply/demand situation – lots of supply and weakening demand.
It would be very nice to see further weakness in prices, but most experts don't feel that there will be more weakness in prices unless corn prices drop lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
While there were some regional fishing bans in Peru this week there was still quite good fishing with the total for the North/Central region at about 133,000 m/t catch for the week. Total catch to date is now up to 315,000 m/t which leaves 2.48 million m/t still available on the fishing quota.
There was also some fishing in the south of Peru and catch is up to a total of about 152,000 m/t, leaving 335,000 m/t still on the quota.
There has been no change in Peru fishmeal export prices this week, but trade reports do suggest that the high fishing quota in Peru coupled with the poor economic situation in China may lead to a weakening of fishmeal export prices --- another situation of growing supply with a risk of falling demand.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,020 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,625 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,770 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,820 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,970 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1620/1640 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1670/1690 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1720/1740 m/t | 1690/1710 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1770/1790 m/t | 1740/1760 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1820/1840 m/t | 1780/1800 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3200/3250 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 3300/3350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 3400/3450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3600/3700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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