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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 06, 2022
This week was a week where prices were driven by what looks like an improved situation in the Black Sea which is bearish to very bullish weather concerns in the US.
Wheat prices were lower on the week – due mainly to the Black Sea situation, although all the first shipments from Ukraine have been corn. The Ukraine does normally ship much more corn than wheat. US wheat prices dropped by USD 10 to 15 m/t depending on the type and the protein.
Corn prices did show some weakness due to the Black Sea shipments but the continued hot and dry weather in the USA was able to stop prices from falling much. There are some very serious concerns that the corn yields could be quite a bit lower due to the heat and the lack of rainfall. With the USDA WASDE coming up next week some early private forecasts are showing lower corn yields – so, it will be very interesting to read what the USDA thinks.
Soybean and soymeal prices were lower – said to be due to the Pelosi visit to Taiwan and the possible effect that this could have on US shipments to China. Old crop soybeans and soymeal are still at a very large premium to new crop 2022 product and international buyers are reportedly all lined up to buy new crop US soybeans --- for a few months the US will be the only country with exportable soybean supplies.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $69/70.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $94/95.00 | Steady | X |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $96/97.00 | Steady | x |
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France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $96/97.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $83/84.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $76/77.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $104/105.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $73/74.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $80/81.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $79/80.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $104/105.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $89/90.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $5.00 | x |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $5.00 | x |
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Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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Black Sea to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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Baltic Dry Index | 1560 | Down 332 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1411 | Down 670 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1967 | Down 84 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1700 | Down 271 | x |
Baltic Handisize Index | 1058 | Down 115 | x |
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Global Container Index - Freightos | 6139 | Up 19 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2022/November 2022
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 333 -- 366 November | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 374 -- 390 November | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
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Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 355/361 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 340/345 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 349/353 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 390/400 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 315/320 | X |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 310/315 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 315/320 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 300/310 Constanza | X |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 320/330 | X |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 295>>290 November | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 325>>318 November | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 265/270 | x |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290/295 | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | No prices | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 295/300 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 320/330 Constanza | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/285 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 300/305 | X |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 520>>495 November | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 555>>530 November | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices | x |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 490>>480 December | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 545/550 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 495>>485 December | X |
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Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>570 December | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 610>>600 December | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 615>>595 December | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | x |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 825/835 m/t November | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 295/300 m/t November | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 290/305 m/t November | x |
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DDGS prices moved a little lower this week as supplies were more available and corn prices had weakened a little. According to the US Grains Council's weekly report DDGS prices FOB Nola were down by about USD 11 m/t for August/September and by USD 16 m/t for October. According to market experts, DDGS may be priced too low versus corn so may make a move higher in coming weeks.
Corn gluten meal priced were steady to higher in the export market as demand continue good – even at the current sky-high price levels. However, buyers in traditional CGM markets like Egypt continue to be out of the market as prices are just too high for them. Imports by Egypt, which was the number one market for CGM for years, have dropped off to almost nothing.
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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