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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 10, 2024
US corn prices are at the low for the year and don’t seem to want to move higher, at least not for now. There just isn’t any bullish news for corn these days with prices moving lower in every producing country. However, if there are problems coming with the Brazil corn crop then we could see prices moving higher.
US soybeans are stuck in a trading range according to trade reports and, like corn, there just isn’t any bullish news to move prices higher. Soymeal prices are quite weak and trade sources say that lower export sales and shipments could move soymeal prices even lower.
US wheat prices were up on Friday but still down on the week as a bearish WASDE report pushed prices lower. There were some comments in trade reports that wheat prices could get a little more bullish due to possible additional China orders after the New Year holiday. For now, wheat looks steady to lower.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
Freight rates are expected to move lower because of a drop in demand from China due to the Chinese New Year holidays. 2024 is the year of the dragon.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $3.00 | |
$26.00 | Down $3.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $44.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $45.00 | Up $2.00 | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $46.00 | Up $2.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $24.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79.00 | Down $3.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $62 Russia | Ukraine $62 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $24 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $52 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $43 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $42 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $44 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $17 Russia | Ukraine $25 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $50.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $81.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $87.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1545 | Up 138 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2381 | Up 351 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1509 | Up 65 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1053 | Up 12 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 568 | Down 17 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3392 | Down 1 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2024/April 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258>>254 June | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 280>>273 June | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203<<208 June | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 222<<228 June | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 227<<232 June | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 226<<240 June | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230<<250 June | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 204/207 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 215/220 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/190 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 193<<197 June | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 220<<225 June | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 185<<190 June | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 195<<200 June | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 200/204 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 195<<205 June | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205<<215 June | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t – Odessa port | USD 190<<200 June | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/280 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 240/245 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 425>>390 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 460>>425 June | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 410>>370 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 445/450 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 405>>375 June | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 460<<470 June | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 415>>405 June | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 400<<425 June | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 470<<475 June | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235<<245 June | |
.
No comments these days on corn coproducts as it is just too difficult to find any accurate comments in trade reports.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Trade estimates have Peru presales as high as 285,000 m/t for the next fishing season. Prices are reported to be up by about USD 50 m/t but that is very hard to confirm. Trade reports also mention that some fishmeal producers are not booking anymore advance business as they don’t want to have oversold their next production --- better safe than sorry.
The latest China 2023 numbers, as published by MSI Ceres, show that the local China fishmeal production is up by 59% to 390,000 m/t while imports are down by about 10% to 1.6 mm/t. Forecasts for 2024 show imports up by 9.5% to 1.78 mm/t with local production down by 18% to 320,000 m/t. 2024 fishmeal consumption is seen as up by 8.5% to 2.16 mm/t.
Also published by MSI Ceres are area volumes – 87.2% of Peru’s fishmeal exports went to Asia (mainly China) with 7.7% to the Americas and 4.2% to Europe.
All is quiet in Peru with China out of the market for New Year celebrations.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,730 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,985 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,900 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,920 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,970 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1820/1840 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 | 1920/1940 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 12,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
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