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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 17, 2024
Monday is a holiday in the USA – President’s Day – with most everything closed and grain traders enjoying a long weekend – well at least some will.
This week was another week of lower prices for everything – we are sure stuck in a down market these days. US corn prices were down by about USD 5 m/t with soybeans also down by USD 5 m/t while soymeal only dropped a couple of dollars. US wheat prices were the big loser this week with all winter wheat down by about USD 15 m/t and US spring wheat down by about US 10 m/t.
Wheat was the big loser this week as a result of low USA export sales and ever growing world production forecasts for wheat supplies in 2024. Every exporting country seems to be looking at high to record wheat crops for 2024. However, as we are in winter the crop situation can change considerably whether the spring sun is shining or not.
Soybeans had an up and down week this week with buyers jumping into the market on down days and pushing prices up a little on the day but not enough to stop it being a down week. South American soybean production continues to pressure market prices and USA soybean export prices look less and less competitive for the next few/many weeks.
Corn prices are at contract lows and don’t seem to want to move higher, but some experts are saying that there is little room for further drops in corn prices with a few saying that the corn futures market is oversold. But looking at the price charts and the corn fundamentals there doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect a serious rally to higher prices. From a US point of view, it is too early to worry about weather and corn for 2024, after all it is winter.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$27.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Down $2.00 | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $3.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $3.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $78.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $50.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $64 Russia | Ukraine $62 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $28 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $53 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $32 Russia | Ukraine $37 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $36 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $33 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $45.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $72.00 | Down $9.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $82.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1610 | Up 65 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2448 | Up 67 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1646 | Up 137 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1071 | Up 18 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 572 | Up 4 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3423 | Up 31 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2024/April 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 245>>239 June | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 269>>261 June | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200<<205 June | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220<<225 June | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 220<<225 June | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 220<<225 June | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230<<240 June | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 195/205 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 196/200 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/190 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 185<<192 June | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 210<<220 June | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 185>>175 June | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190<<195 June | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 195/198 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 175<<180 June | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180<<185 June | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t – Odessa port | USD 170<<2175 June | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/280 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 235/240 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 420>>390 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 455>>425 June | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 400>>370 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 445/450 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 410>>375 June | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 455<<460 June | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 410>>405 June | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 410<<435 June | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 460<<465 June | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580/590 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 245<<250 June | |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
This week MSI Ceres published detailed 2023 fishmeal statistics in their weekly report --- interesting information. Some highlights – 87% of Peru’s fishmeal exports went to Asia. China represented 81% of all Peru fishmeal exports. Total 2023 Peru fishmeal exports were down by 51% due to limited fishing --- 524,000 m/t in 2023 versus 1,070,000 m/t in 2022. Peru’s share of China’s fishmeal imports dropped from 49% to only 26% -- 430,000 m/t in 2023 versus 879,000 m/t in 2022. Vietnam, Russia, Thailand, Chile, Mexico, India and USA all showed large increases in fishmeal shipments to China in 2023, as Peru had limited supply.
MSI Ceres also asks a good question – can Peru regain its market share in China in 2024.
Presales of fishmeal in Peru are getting close to 300,000 m/t with prices said to be firming up by USD 20 to 50 m/t, depending on who is talking. Fishing should begin again in May or perhaps late April and now we can spend a few weeks speculating on what the new fishing quota will be --- somewhere around 2.5 million m/t looks like an attractive quota number.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,725 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,960 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,895 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,900 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,975 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1580/1600 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1820/1840 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 | 1920/1940 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 12,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
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