3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 02, 2024
Wheat prices closed the week with strong drops on Friday as the market was reacting to lower wheat prices in most world wheat exporting markets. If the wheat market weakness continues into next week, which is very possible, then we will see some real bargains for wheat exports. The lower prices this week could attract serious wheat international tender business next week as major government buyers see these very attractive wheat prices.
Regarding corn, there were comments in trade reports that commodity funds are very short corn futures which could create quite a price rally if funds get uneasy and decide to reduce their short positions. It seems that, looking out a few weeks, higher corn prices do seem to be a more likely situation.
Soybeans’ higher prices this week are said to be due to a lot of bargain buying and then some futures short covering, as funds got worried about their large short positions. The soybean market is still weak overall as the large South American production weighs heavily on prices. Other than the odd up day for prices no one is forecasting higher soybean prices for now.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $2.00 | |
$25.00 | Down $2.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $41.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $24.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $0.00 | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $76.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $65 Russia | Ukraine $65 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $32 Russia | Ukraine $39 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $31 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32 Russia | Ukraine $39 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $26 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Down $5.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $72.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $73.00 | Down $6.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2203 | Up 337 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3977 | Up 832 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1723 | Up 128 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1267 | Up 78 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 722 | Up 99 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3299 | Down 53 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2024/June 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 244>>232 June | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 265>>250 June | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 194<<200 June | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 202<<206 June | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 218<<223 June | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 214<<220 June | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 220<<230 June | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 190/195 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 196/200 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 205/210 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 240/245 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 191<<195 June | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 217<<220 June | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 185>>180 June | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190<<195 June | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 195/198 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 185<<190 June | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 165<<170 June | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t – Odessa port | USD 165<<170 June | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/200 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 247/252 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 395>>385 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 425>>415 June | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 375>>360 June | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 445/450 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 385>>370 June | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 445<<450 June | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 405>>400 June | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 410<<430 June | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 455<<460 June | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/570 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/220 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235<<240 June | |
Corn coproduct prices were a little lower again this week with corn gluten meal down by about USD 10 m/t while export DDGS seemed to be down by about USD 3 to 5 m/t.
With higher corn and soymeal prices seen this week it is not too likely that coproduct prices will go any lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
In Peru, presales against the next fishing season are reported to be at about 100,000 m/t. New business for this week is almost none as both buyers and sellers are waiting for some feeling on the new quota.
Trade reports suggest that the next fishing quota in Peru will not exceed 2.5 million m/t. However, there also seems to be quite a number of folks expecting a quota down at 2.0 mm/t. Fishing may start in late April or early May.
A few interesting numbers from Europe --- total fishmeal imports have dropped by 42% in 10 years. Imports from Peru dropped by 63% --- Peru’s share of fishmeal imports dropped from 49% to just 18%. Imports of fishmeal from Morocco increased by 76% -- Morocco’s share of fishmeal imports increased from 8% to 23%, also basis 10 years.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,730 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,960 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,880 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,900 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,965 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1700/1720 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 | 1920/1940 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2020/2040 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.