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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- MAY 25, 2024
Monday is a holiday in the US this week – Memorial Day --- so grain exchanges and companies will be closed.
This week showed a lot of strength in US soybeans/soymeal and wheat as soybeans moved up by USD 10 m/t and soymeal by at least USD 15 m/t. US winter wheat was up as much as USD 18 m/t depending on the type while US spring wheat was up by USD 12 m/t.
Trade reports say that much of the soybean price increase was due to worries about planting delays on the US soybean crop due to all the rainfall in the soybean/corn belt. The Argentina soybean harvest is almost 80% completed with Brazil’s soybean harvest just over 90%. Some trade reports added that the expected push higher in soymeal demand was also a major factor in the rally.
Wheat’s higher prices seem to be all related to concerns about the Russian wheat crop and the effect that this will have on export demand. The IGC reduced its projection on Russian wheat with many forecasts now seeing Russian wheat production at 85 million m/t --- still quite a chunk of wheat but well below record production levels.
Corn had a very quiet week this week with prices up by about USD 2 m/t which is nothing when looking at the changes in wheat and soybeans. There is more rainfall than wanted in the corn belt which is slowing spring plantings and could push corn prices higher in the near-term.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Down $2.00 | |
$27.00 | Down $2.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $27.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $38.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $39.00 | Steady | |
$32.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $40.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $54.00 | Down $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $71.00 | Down $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Adjusted | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $44.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Adjusted | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1,00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Adjusted | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $70.00 | Up $1.00 | |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $42.00 | Steady | |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $55 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $59 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $18 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $27 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $26 Russia | Ukraine $36 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $52 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $25 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $31.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $55.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $59.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1797 | Down 47 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2613 | Down 62 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1824 | Down 1 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1326 | Down 79 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 688 | Down 2 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 3413 | Up 306 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2024/August 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 265<<270 Sep | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 290<<295 Sep | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235<<240 Sep | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245<<250 Sep | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 265<<270 Sep | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 255<<263 Sep | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 290>>280 Sep | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 240/243 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/195 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 200<<205 Sep | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225<<230 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 190<<195 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 210>>205 Sep | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 242<<252 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 200<<205 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205<<215 Sep | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200<<205 Sep | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 250<<255 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 460>>450 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 490>>480 Sep | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 445>>425 Sep | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 475/480 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 445>>425 Sep | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 480>>470 Sep | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 465>>455 Sep | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 470<<475 Sep | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 465>>460 Sep | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530/540 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/210 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/215 | |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
The catch in the North/Central area of Peru was just under 143,000 m/t this week bringing the total to date up to 1.93 million m/t and leaving 540,000 m/t on the quota. The juvenile level this week averaged 24%. The number of vessels fishing has dropped off from 450 to just over 200 as some allocations/quotas have been fully landed.
The latest scientific assessment for El Nino for Peru is for any event to be weak to neutral. So, nothing to worry about on the El Nino side this year.
There has been no change in Peru fishmeal prices this week but, as mentioned last week, the shortage of Super Prime and Prime is expected to push those prices higher.
Overall, the fishmeal/fishoil industry in Peru seems to be quite happy this season and is hoping that the later 2024 fishing season will be just as good as the current one.
China’s imports of fishmeal in 2024 are forecasted to increase by about 8% to 1.8 million tonnes. Total fishmeal imports by China in the first 4 month of 2024 reached 560,000 m/t. Total fishmeal consumption in China in 2024 is forecasted as up 100,000 m/t to 2.08 mm/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,730 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,915 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,665 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 1,695 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,875 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1620/1640 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1700/1720 | 1700/1720 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1770 | 1750/1770 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,500 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon
