Saturday, August 10, 2024

Weekly Report --- August 10, 2024

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- August 10, 2024

 

Next week is USDA WASDE reporting week once again -- always an exciting time. All the experts seem to feel that production/yield numbers will be higher, which helped to push USA prices lower this week.

 

Corn prices were down a little this week – no more than USD 3 or 4 m/t. New crop USA soybeans were down by close to USD 10 m/t with soymeal down by USD 15 to 20 m/t. Wheat prices didn’t do much this week – only moved around by a dollar or two but didn’t seem to want to do anything much.

 

If the WASDE is as experts forecast, we should see lower corn prices next week as higher yields and higher stocks are expected. As with corn, the experts see higher production and higher stocks for soybeans which should keep the market a little weak.

 

None of the experts seem to be looking to wheat for exciting WASDE numbers ---- wheat production is expected to be up a little and ending stocks up a little but nothing major.

 

Monday is WASDE day --- it may or may not be exciting.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$28.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$28.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$32.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$32.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$33.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$50.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$51.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$38.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$53.00

Down $1.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$52.00

Down $1.00

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$52.00

Steady

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$28.00

Steady

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$27.00

Steady

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Up $1.00

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$63.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$40.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$36.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$54.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$43.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$44.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$43.00

Corrected

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$54.00

Corrected

 

 

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

 

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$42.00

Steady

 

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$57 Russia

Ukraine $53

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$54 Russia

Ukraine $77

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$19 Russia

Ukraine $27

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$18 Russia

Ukraine $28

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$48 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $34

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$30 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $52

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$31 Russia

Ukraine $41

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$41 Russia

Ukraine $70

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $25

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $46

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$27.00

Up $2.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$41.00

Up $1.00

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1670

Down 5

 

Baltic Capesize Index

2437

Up 110

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1599

Down 106

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1301

Down 41

 

Baltic Handisize Index

755

Down 4

 

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

5050

Up 126

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2024/October 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 220<<240 Nov

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 244<<254 Nov      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 214<<218 Nov

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 222<<226 Nov 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 236<<240 Nov   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

USD 238<<243 Nov      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 275<<300 Nov     

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 210/220      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 210/215

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 185/190

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 182<<187 Nov 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 210<<215 Nov  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 182<<190 Nov  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 189<<200 Nov

 

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

USD 236-240 Spot

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 196<<205 Nov

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 195<<200 Nov

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 205<<210 Nov

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 240<<250 Nov

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 390>>375 Nov  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 420>>405 Nov  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 370>>350 Nov     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 445/450

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 353<<360 Nov 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 397>>402 Nov

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 400<<405 Nov

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 415<<420 Nov

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 450<<455 Nov

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 550/560

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/225

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 217/226 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Bad weather has reduced the fishing in the south of Peru to almost nothing ---about 750 m/t only.

 

With nothing but odds and ends left to sell in the North/Central region of Peru, business has dropped down to zero. Buyers all seem to have their needs well covered and producers have nothing left to sell. No one seems to be interested in trying to buy/sell the next fishing season. However there have been some comments in trade reports that next season’s prices may come in a little lower --- there seems to be some concern that China’s fishmeal stocks will be high which could reduce next seasons demand and weaken prices --- but we are still quite a way from then.

 

It looks like the next Peru North/Central fishing quota will be a minimum of 1.7 million m/t based on comments by the Minister of Production.

 

So here we are, still in a quiet period all we can do is speculate on the future and keep busy neatening up our office for the end of 2024.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,725

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,130

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

No prices

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,770

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,110

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1450/1470

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1500/1520

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1600/1620

1620/1640

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1650/1670

1670/1690

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1730/1750

1750/1770

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

4,800

5,000/5,300

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

5,500/6,000

6,300/6,500

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2024 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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