Saturday, April 12, 2025

Weekly Report ---- April 12, 2025

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

St Remy De Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- April 12, 2025

 

This week was another tariff week but this one was combined with a USDA-WASDE week ---- certainly made everything very exciting and painful for some.

 

USA corn prices were up by about USD 12 on the week with US soybeans up by USD 22 m/t and soymeal up by about USD 15 m/t. USA hard red winter wheat was up by USD 5 m/t while soft red winter wheat was up by almost USD 10 m/t. USA spring wheat was also up by about USD 10 m/t.

 

According to the WASDE report both corn and soybeans will have lower than expected USA and world stock levels which certainly helped to push prices higher as the week ended. Overall, the WASDE report was seen as bullish for about everything. The tariff related weakness in the US dollar also helped to push prices higher.

 

Although many of the new tariffs (above 10%) have been delayed for 90 days and the stock market has rushed to recover, there is still quite a bit of worry in the grain/oilseed business. China, where all the tariffs still apply, is a major buyer from the USA for corn, soybeans, sorghum and DDGS ---- exporters are now looking everywhere for alternative markets.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

The USA/China trade tariff situation has created a great deal of confusion in the container freight market ---- China to US shipments are a large share of the container business and container lines are moving quickly to rearrange shipping schedules to reduce the China/USA – USA/China routings. Finding container freight for destinations from the USA that were serviced by routes that ended in China/Asia is difficult.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$26.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$26.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$27.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$27.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$28.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$31.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$29.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$46.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$45.00

Down $2.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$36.00

Down $1.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27.00

Down $1.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$26.00

Down $1.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$51.00

Up $1.00

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Up $1.00

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$33.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$42.00

Down $1.00

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan: Panamax

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$36.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$39.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$40.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$36.00

Steady

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$62.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$36.00

Steady

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$41.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$35.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$36.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$41.00

Down $1.00

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$51.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$36 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$52 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$13 Russia

Ukraine $35

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$13 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$34 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$26 Russia

Ukraine $34

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$20 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$19 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$20 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$20.00

Down $2.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$33.00

Down $1.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1274

Down 215

Baltic Capesize Index

1803

Down 416

Baltic Panamax Index

1186

Down 239

Baltic Supramax Index

939

Down 32

Baltic Handisize Index

582

Down 31

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

2067

Down 80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2025/July 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 235>>240 Aug

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 251<<255 Aug   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240>>230 Aug

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 250>>240 Aug

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 255>>245 Aug   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 248/251 spot      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 250<<260 Aug

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 235>>220 Aug      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 235/240

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 230/235

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 240/245

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 220>>215 Aug 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 230>>225 Aug  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 230>>210 Aug   

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 235>>215 Aug

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 240/243 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 245<<250 Aug

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 230<<235 Aug

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 240>>230 Aug

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 225<<235 Aug

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 220<<225 Aug

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 355 flat to Aug  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 380 flat to Aug  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 330<<340 Aug    

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

No prices

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 330<<355 Aug 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 415>>400 Aug

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 400<<415 Aug

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 405<<425 Aug

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 390<<400 Aug

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 625/630

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225/230

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 230>>220 Aug 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

It has been announced that the next North/Central fishing season in Peru will begin on April 22. No quota has been advised yet but the trade seems to feel that it will be at 2.4 million m/t. The new quota will be published on Apil 16.

 

Fishing in the South of Peru has dropped off to almost nothing with only 2,900 m/t landed last week bringing the total catch up to 184,400 m/t which leaves 66,400 m/t available. Only about 10 vessels did any fishing last week.

 

Fishmeal prices in China are stable even though fishmeal shipments from the USA will be hit by the latest China import tariff of 125%. Last year the USA shipped about 60,000 m/t of fishmeal to China. In the scheme of things, USA fishmeal shipments to China are not particularly significant and will be easily replaced from other origins.

 

Advance fishmeal sales for th next fishing season are now reported to be at about 230,000 m/t which will be just over 40% of the next season’s production, assuming a quota of 2.4 million m/t.

 

Fishmeal producer Exalmar has agreed to purchase Pesquera Centinela, which reports say could add as much as $500 million to Exalmar’s annual sales. Details of the agreement have not been published,

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Sorry but no updated prices are available this week.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,660

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

2,145

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,690

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,760

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,240

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1420/1440

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1520/1540

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1570/1590

1550/1570

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1620/1640

1600/1620

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1650/1670

1650/1670

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade

2100/2200

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

3500/3600

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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