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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT – May 17, 2025
Looking at USA futures prices, US corn was down by about USD 3 on the week with soybeans seen as up by only a couple of dollars m/t and soymeal not changing much – perhaps up by a dollar or two. USA HRW wheat was up by perhaps one dollar m/t while US spring wheat was lower by about USD 7 m/t.
Corn was said to be a little weaker due to the record crop that is expected and the good weather that is helping it along. Soybeans tried to go higher early in the week but the pressure from the record Brazil soybean crop stopped that rally.
September “new-crop” corn futures were at a new low this week with most forecasts favoring lower prices for corn in coming days. As the trade reports, for corn, everything looks good in the USA, Brazil and Europe as crops are concerned. US corn export prices are the most competitive these days and are expected to continue to be for the next couple of months.
Trade reports seem to feel that soybeans could move higher next week , at least for new crop soybeans but much of this will depend on the soybean export market. Soymeal prices have dropped by about USD 10 in the last 14 days and could be headed lower as the supply seems to be outrunning demand. The problem with soybeans is the China/US tariff situation as China is seen stocking up on Brazil soybeans and avoiding USA beans.
Everything looks good for the US wheat crop as the weather is great. Also, US wheat is very competitive for export in most corners of the world. Trade reports seem to be divided between bullish and bearish on wheat prices.
A little note about sorghum, something most people don’t think about. 75% of sorghum exports have been going to China but this may not continue with China/USA tariffs --- exports to China are currently at a standstill. Depending on who you are listening to there are either 2 million or just over 3 million m/t of sorghum for export in the US and the new crop harvest will begin in June in Texas ---- sorghum stocks could go as high as 7 million m/t with no place to store it or to export it. Sorghum for export is selling at a discount to corn, something that hasn’t been seen since China became the main export buyer. Sorghum looks like a bargain to me --- unfortunately, possible buyers have a lack of understanding regarding sorghum.
If you need any sorghum info, just drop me a note.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $23.00 | Steady |
$23.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $28.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
$29.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $34.00 | Up $1.00 |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
US PNW China: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $50.00 | Steady |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $56.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Jordan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $1.00 |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $40.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
Black Sea freight | ||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $50 |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $51 Russia | Ukraine $65 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $13 Russia | Ukraine $34 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $13 Russia | Ukraine $28 |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $24 |
Black Sea to East Spain -- Panamax | $24 Russia | Ukraine $17 |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $20 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $19 Russia | Ukraine $39 |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $51 |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $20 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $34 Russia | Ukraine $70 |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia | Ukraine $24 |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | |
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $19.00 | Steady |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $30.00 | Down $1.00 |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1388 | Up 89 |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2018 | Up 309 |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1290 | Down 63 |
Baltic Supramax Index | 978 | Up 9 |
Baltic Handisize Index | 554 | Steady |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 2215 | Up 195 |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2025/August 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 219>>226 Sep |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 230<<235 Sep |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240>>225 Sep |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250>>225 Sep |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250>>230 Sep |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 231/234 spot |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230<<235 Sep |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230>>215 Sep |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 220/225 |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 235/240 |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 245/250 |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 205>>195 Sep |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 215>>210 Sep |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 205>>195 Sep |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 210>>200 Sep |
Corn, FOB France | USD 228/231 Spot |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 240<<245 Sep |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 235>>220 Sep |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240>>225 Sep |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 225<<235 Sep |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 200>>205 Sep |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 320<<330 Sep |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 345<<355 Sep |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 305<<315 Sep |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 305<<315 Sep |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 415>>410 Sep |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 385<<400 Sep |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 415<<425 Sep |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 410<<415 Sep |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600>>590 Aug |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220>>215 Aug |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220>>215 Aug |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Landings in the North/Central region of Peru have reached almost 1.3 million m/t which will leave about 1.7 mm/t on the quota. Fishmeal production is seen at 290,000 m/t and fishoil at 33,000 m/t. In the South region of Peru, fishing is at 193,000 m/t which leaves 58,000 m/t available on the quota, which ends on June 30.
According to trade reports about 25% of the fishmeal production is Super Prime or Prime grades. Current sales are estimated to be about 400,000 m/t. MSI Ceres reports that about 45,000 m/t in new sales were done to China during the IFFO conference in Madrid – they add that there was quite a bit of variation seen in prices, especially for lower grades.
MSI Ceres also mentioned that the IFFO Conference had “267 delegates from 36 countries”.
As things stand today, fishing is good in the North/Central region, prices are attractive for both buyers and sellers and everyone is smiling.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | $1660 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | $2245 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | $1620 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | $1710 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | $2280 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1420/1440 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1540 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1570 | 1530/1550 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1640 | 1570/1590 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1650/1670 | 1620/1640 |
Fish oil, crude bulk – feed grade | 2600/2700 | 2500/2600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3500/3600 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon
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