Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 05, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
With this week being a short week there is still a lack of up to date pricing information from some markets so the report is a little more vague than usual – will be better next week.
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
For corn, everything seemed to be a little or a lot lower this week as export sales numbers were a disappointment, private crop production estimates are higher, ethanol production slipped a little and the weather situation in South America was not too bad. All the above items combined to help push corn prices lower but the biggest factor on the week may have been the crop production estimates from Informa that showed corn production higher than the last USDA estimates and may be an indication of which way next weeks USDA report will go. The USDA WASDE report will be issued on the 11th and will be looked at very closely by the trade --- past January reports have had a major effect on grain prices. With corn prices quite soft and the recent trend to lower levels then a negative USDA report could certainly push prices lower and, so far, we don't see anyone much out there who is looking for the USDA report to push prices higher – but then there could always be a surprise.
Soybeans and soymeal were also lower on the week as everything looks just great in South America and the early expected yield numbers seen in some areas of Brazil look quite good, except in the odd dry area but in general very good. Rain forecasts for both Argentina and Brazil look to be good for the soybean crops and the rain has broken the heat wave in some areas.
The soybean export sales were higher than had been expected for the week due to China being back in the market – covering once again the quantities needed due to the contracts cancelled earlier.
All eyes are going to be in the USDA report next week so the first part of the week could see some frantic changes in price as everyone tries to decide which position to take in advance of the report and hopes that there are no surprises.
Due to all the holidays in various parts of the world it has been very difficult to update all the prices for various grains and protein meals --- where not possible is just show "n/a" – not available.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 309/315 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 338/343 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 356/360 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD n/a |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 365/375 Feb/Mar |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 310/315 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD n/a |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 290/305 Mar/June |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 322/328 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD n/a |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 293/295 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 263>>257 Apr/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 248>>242 new crop |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 305/310 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 286/288 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 224/bid 210 Mar/May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 497/505 January |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 526>>468 Jan/Mar/Apr |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 516>>448 Jan/M/A/M |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 492>>428 Jan/M/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 520>>450 Jan/Apr/May |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 489>>431 Jan/M/A/M |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 525/530 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 272/277 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 830/840 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>336 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 374/378 m/t |
With corn prices down again this week we expected to see some weakness in the corn by-product prices but with actual business volume being very limited it was very difficult to get any good handle on where prices should be. Next week will be an easier week as all producer and buyers will be back at work and there will be a good assortment of bid/offer prices available and it is expected that we should see a little weakness in prices. However, we did get some CNF prices on corn gluten meal this week to several destinations and there was no weakness in prices at all as the CGM was still offered at the same price level as before Christmas.
According to the limited trade reports available there were no changes in prices in the past few days.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 725/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 710/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1030/1060 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 980/1010 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 360/390 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 570/600 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 580/610 m/t |
According to trade reports the animal protein prices from Australia have slipped a little in the last week or so but this may be due to holidays and little sales volume more than any actual change in market conditions. However, some market experts are saying that prices for animal proteins could be lower in 2013 as there seems to be more available export supply than export demand at present. USA domestic MBM business looks to be picking up a little due to the low price levels seen in the USA and the ability of feed producers to quickly switch from one ingredient to another – export buyers don't have the same ability to switch so are not as likely to see sudden price changes.
With soymeal prices slipping lower there seems to be little reason to expect any increase in animal protein prices, except for those products that sell against high priced fishmeal.
So it looks like we could see lower animal protein prices in coming weeks.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, the December fishing period is over and the full quota was not reached. The catch ended up at about 44,000 m/t below full quota by some trade estimates, which is just over 10% short and will mean even less available fishmeal. Some trade reports state that the final December catch number is actually only 20,000 m/t below full quota, so it is a bit difficult to know exactly what the final number is -- but since we are now into the next quota it is probably not too important. The question now is: what will the fishing be like in January and will the weather cooperate so that the full quota can be caught.
For those fishmeal buyers who complain about the very high prices, they need to be aware that the Peru quota this year is down about 50% from the year before – that is certainly good reason to see prices move up.
Not much in sales to report as many buyers and sellers were still on long holidays and China seems to be out of the market for now as it is their low consumption season and not much is expected from China buyers until after the Chinese New Year in February. There has also not been much buyer interest from Europe but, as with most countries, the buyers are still getting back to work after the holidays. Also, with Northern European fishmeal prices very competitive with Peru it is expected that most Europe buyers will source much closer to home than Peru.
According to the folks at MSI Ceres in Peru, everyone is going to be out fishing like mad in early January as the fishing weather tends to fall of very badly after the middle of the month and fishing could be much more difficult.
As to the prices shown below – there don't seem to be any changes at present.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1820/1830 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1850/1860 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1910/1920 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2000/2020 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2040/2050 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2060/2070 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2100/2110 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2350/2400 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2300/2350 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2700 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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