Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 19, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was another up week this week as most every price moved higher – certainly nay price related to soybeans was much higher: beans, meal and oil all had very strong rallies.
Corn prices moved higher quite easily early in the week with stories of possible crop problems in South America – crop problems that seem to be more rumour than fact at this moment. Informa came out with some quite high numbers for estimated 2013 corn crop yields and that stalled the market a little but then estimating crop yields even before the crop is in the ground is just an exercise in math rather than anything near a fact. Old crop corn prices should continue to be strong, at least until we see some new corn from South America.
Ethanol production is a major consumer of US corn and in the last week there have been both bullish and bearish stories about ethanol production in coming weeks and the effect this will have on both corn consumption and corn prices. One can say that if ethanol production drops off then corn prices should move lower and may say that could happen due to current low margin on ethanol. However, others in the industry are saying that the low margins will be corrected by increased ethanol exports and prices could move higher ---- so, at this moment, it is like most other variable factors and could favour either higher or lower prices. As they say: "you pays your money and you takes your chances".
Soybeans/soymeal were very strong early in the week as harvest delays and dry weather, both in Brazil, got the market very excited. It seems that for much of Brazil there is not much weather problem but for southern Brazil and northern Argentina the rain coverage is not nearly enough, which can get markets very excited. There are some showers in the forecast but these are not expected to cover all the areas in need and now the experts are saying that rains are going to be needed before early/mid February in order to maintain good yields for both soybeans and corn.
The Informa report for 2013 estimated crop plantings shows little or no change in soybean plantings in 2013 from their earlier estimates but up by about 3 percent on 2012 acreage – they show corn acreage plantings up by just under 2 percent --- of course both are just estimates well ahead of any planting.
As I have said before, the pricing game will now be largely controlled by what happens in South America, so watch the weather.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 317/319 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 352/355 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 355/360 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 341/344 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 354/365 Feb/Mar |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 305/310 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 307/309 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 290/302 Mar/June |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 350/355 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 320/325 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 309/312 Feb/Apr |
| Corn, FOB Argentina ----- spot price | USD 294/297 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 290>>280 Apr/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port ----- spot price | USD 294/296 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 296>>242 July/Aug |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 300/310 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 325/327 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 315/317 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 250/bid 230 Mar/May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 513/520 January |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 534>>482 F/M/A/M |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 525>>448 F/M/A/M |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 488>>418 F/M/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 527>>455 Feb/Apr/May |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 491>>425 Feb/M/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 530/535 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 277/280 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 800/820 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 343>>340 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 377/388 m/t |
Good prices ideas are a little hard come by this week as the rally in soymeal has made sellers keep their prices a little more hidden or, if they are giving prices, to push them up a little higher than the market situation may require. According to one trade report the price of DDGS in parts of the USA was up by USD 10 m/t although that does not seem to be the case everywhere. However, it is reported that some sellers of DDGS, CGM and CGF are holding off booking any future business until they see exactly where the market is going in the next few days --- sellers seem much more interested in spot business than anything a few weeks out. You cant blame the sellers really, as with the current volatility in prices, safety seems to be the best way to go.
It does look like the rally in soymeal is going to keep prices firm for protein related items like DDGS and CGM while CGF will probably follow corn prices closely. Not that DDGS is 100 percent protein related but a good rally in soymeal will certainly push the price higher as would a good rally in corn. Corn pushes the price higher from the input side of the equation while soymeal pushes it higher from the output/end-use side.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 740/760 CNF Asia |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 480/520 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 725/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 710/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1030/1060 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 980/1010 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 375/400 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 600/630 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 570/610 m/t |
With the rally in soymeal prices there has also been some new strength in export animal protein prices with both the USA and Europe showing a move higher – this makes much sense as most producers have little interest in under-pricing their product, especially when quality protein is so hard to find these days.
We did have one lot of Paraguay MBM available this week but couldn't scare up any interest as all the usual suspects found European MBM to be priced about USD 50 m/t lower. As usual with South America, the local market is willing to pay a higher price than the export market, which makes export sales very, very difficult. And for many buyers in Asia the Chinese New Year holidays are slowing down business considerably as orders are being put aside until late February when the holidays are over work is back to normal. I know that the holiday does not actually start until the 10th but business seems to be slowing down now as everyone is using this time to get business finalized and all cleaned up prior to the holidays.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Up to last Thursday, just over 60% of the January quota had been caught and there are still close to two weeks left until the end of the month – perhaps we will have better luck than last month and actually reach the full quota. The daily catch was down from the previous week as was the number of vessels actually fishing with the daily amount around 10,000 m/t with between 150 and 200 vessels working.
Trade reports from Peru are saying that a fair chunk of the 2012 booked business is being rolled over into the next two fishing season as there is just not enough fishmeal to fill all the business this season due to the greatly reduced quota. This is said to have made life a little easier for the producers but could still leave to buyers quite a task of finding replacement protein.
It is interesting to note that even with the low quotas there is a great deal of talk at present about how far the prices are going to fall in coming weeks. There has not been any weakness so far but one wonders how long that can last if the market is talking so much about it. Strangely enough the trade reports on available stocks don't show any major build up in stocks but still the talk of lower prices persists. Of course this talk may just all be as a result of the upcoming Chinese New Year and the expectation of no new business from the largest importer for a few weeks.
According to reports there is little buying interest from major markets in Europe as the European supply is actually more price competitive at present than supply from Peru.
So, reading all the info this week, perhaps there will be some room for prices to slip a little but it would seem that this is more likely at the bottom of the grade scale than up at Prime and Super Prime levels.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1820/1830 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1840/1850 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1910/1920 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1950/1970 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2000/2020 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2080/2090 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2100/2110 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2400/2450 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2450/2500 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2900 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.