Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 16, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
As every trade report has been pointing out, corn prices moved lower for ten days in a row – until last Friday when we had a little bounce, a very little bounce. The feeling with corn certainly is that with the crops in South America looking good and the USA forecasts being bearish then there is little or no reason at present for corn prices to go any higher. The weather situation in both Argentina and brazil looks to be reasonable with not enough bad news in the weather to push corn prices higher.
There is also the expectation in the trade that the crop carryout levels that we will hear at the Ag Outlook Forum next week will just add to the bearish feeling and help to get prices moving lower.
So for now, except for the odd rally, there does not seem to be much in the way of reasons to get the market price for corn to move higher. Perhaps some bad weather in Argentina or some kind of serious port delays in Brazil or a giant export order from somewhere – but without a new factor price do look weak.
Soybeans and soymeal were also down on the week and for much the same reasons as for corn – there just didn't seem to be any reason for prices to move higher. There is some needed rain in Argentina but is it enough and is it in the right place. There is also some talk in Brazil that there could be too much rain in some areas and that, perhaps, some early soybean harvest may be delayed or some second corn planting may be late.
Overall, for soybeans, the weather looks quite good for the next couple of weeks but will we see lower prices and how much lower. With soybeans it is much more difficult to have a good idea on where prices will go as there is still some long-term tightness in the market and it does not take much to push soybean prices higher.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 306>>303 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 333/336 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD no availability |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 331/333 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 355/360 Mar/May |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD no availability |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 298/300 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 295/307 Mar/May |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 317/325 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 330/335 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 301>>298 Mar>>May |
| Corn, FOB Argentina ----- spot price | USD 275/277 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 270>>264 Apr/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port ----- spot price | USD 286/289 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 253>>245 July/Aug |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 300/310 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 303/307 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 304/306 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 240/bid 225 Apr/June |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 506/510 Feb/Mar |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 532/536 Feb/Mar |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 529>>465 F/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465>>425 F/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 525>>456 Feb/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 468>>447 May/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 540/545 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 283/285 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/700 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 338>>333 m/t Feb>>Apr |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 389/393 m/t |
There has certainly not been any weakness in DDGS prices this week but experts in the trade do say that prices may be getting ready for a drop. Of course, the reason for the possible weakness may just be the lack of export business with China and other Asian markets off for New Year. With corn continuing to slip a little every week we should see some price weakness in DDGS as we have seen in corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal.
In the USA corn by-product users are said to be buying only small lots to satisfy their immediate needs as everyone expects prices to move lower in coming week. One can assume that if corn does continue to slide then the by-products will too ----- however, there are signs that ethanol production is picking up so we may see more DDGS coming to market which could certainly help to push prices down.
Also, on the DDGS side of things, the story that the Chinese government is going to allow shipment from unregistered producers in the USA, if true, will certainly make the DDGS export market exciting and could bring export prices a little lower due to additional suppliers in the market.
These days, from a protein point of view, corn gluten meal looks like a great buy and seems to want to slide a little lower every week, as opposed to fishmeal which remains strong and animal protein that is moving higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 710/730 CNF Asia |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 750/775 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 875/910 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1130/1170 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 980/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal and feathermeal prices are a little higher this week, even with soymeal moving lower. Export demand in Asia has been very good and this is keeping the OZ and NZ prices firm and adding a little to the USA export price levels. With the very high fishmeal prices from South America there is very good demand for animal protein and this is keeping export prices higher than might be expected. The domestic prices in the USA are also steady to higher but it is in the export market where most of the strength is seen, as buyers do need a reasonable alternative to USD 2,000 m/t fishmeal.
The announcement last week that poultry and pork protein can be used in fishfeed in the EU could cause a drop in the availability of EU animal protein for export – except for beef which will not be allowed in fishfeed. However, one trade expert in Europe is quoted as saying that, due to the quite low fishfeed production in Europe, there may be very little change in price or availability.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 450/470 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 690/720 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 570/600 m/t |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
With the main fishing season over for now in Peru and wide spread holidays in Asia, we have had a very quiet week for fishmeal business. Hopefully when the Asian buyers get back to work after the Chinese New Year holiday then there will be some further buying interest for fishmeal.
Looking at reported prices this week it seems that the higher grades are still expensive and in very shirt supply while there is a great deal more price flexibility in the lower grade material. Of course there is still not very much fishmeal available and even less of the higher spec grades. According to trade reports the total availability is sitting at around 35,000 m/t – not very much.
I was looking at the exports to Europe as published by MSI Ceres in their weekly report and they show 2012 shipment to Europe up by about 33 percent over 2011 with Germany, France, Greece and Turkey all showing significant increases in fishmeal imports from Peru – Germany was up by in excess of 60 percent 2012 versus 2011.
All in all there is not much to talk about this week on Peruvian fishmeal – not much stock left, softer lower grade prices and no business from Asia. Any time now we should start to get a lot of speculation about the next fishing season and where the quota will be set – always a good topic for a few weeks.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | No quotes |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1750/1770 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1800/1820 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1950/1980 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2030/2050 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2100/2130 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2700/2750 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2650/2700 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3500 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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