Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 21, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was an up and down week once again for corn prices as concerns over the planting for the 2013 crop got the market excited. In the futures market there were two up days this week and both were weather and planting driven. When you look at the current planting progress of only 2 percent compared to last years level of 16 percent and the normal average of 7 percent then you see how far behind the corn planting is. Of course, farmers are able to catch up very quickly once they get out in the fields but that will not be seen for a few weeks yet. The concern with delayed plantings is that the yields may then not be there to reach the current production forecasts or that risk that farmers may switch from corn to later planted soybeans if things slow down too much. Even though it is very early for accurate forecasts, we are seeing some experts saying that corn planting will now be lower than expected.
Looking at the weather for the next few days it does look to be quite rainy and cool with little sun to dry the fields so we may see some further delays in planting corn --- the next 10 to 15 days look to be quite poor for planting.
Experts are saying that the regular Monday report should show corn plantings at 4 to 6 percent, which is up from last weeks 2 percent but still well below the average of 16 percent.
On the soybean side of things, the price for nearby beans and meal continued quite strong as delays in Brazil have not been cleared up and export demand in the USA reflects buyers moving to the US for some supply. However, prices for both soybeans and meal out a few weeks slid lower as everyone knows that the supply will be very good, that the backlogs will all be covered but that there may now be a little less business for Brazil due to the demand moving to the USA --- perhaps that means more availability in Brazil once all logistics problems are sorted out.
Also, with the chance that there could be increased soybean plantings in the USA the chance of a larger 2013 crop added to price weakness for later in the year --- new crop futures were pushed lower for the week as old crop futures moved higher due to limited supply and very good demand.
So then, looks like steady/higher soybean/soymeal prices until the Brazil problems are solved and then back to lower levels once again as supplies be come more available from South America and USA crop plantings are more accurate.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 282/285 Apr/July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 321/323 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 290/300 July/August |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 327/330 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 315/325 Apr/May |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 285>>260 Apr/Aug |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 297/299 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 280/285 Apr/May |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 300>>270 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 270/275 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 287>>271 Apr>>Jun |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 238>>230 Apr/May/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 221/226 July/Aug/Sep |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 280>>260 May>>Aug |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 292/295 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 291/293 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 210/bid 195 Apr/June |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 492/496 May |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 522/526 May |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 538>>450 Spot/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 440>>412 Apr/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 518>>437 Spot/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 420>>405 May/>>J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/670 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/233 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285/288 m/t Apr/May |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 352/357 m/t |
DDGS prices were a little lower again this week with good supply available and corn prices slipping just a little bit lower. According to trade reports, buyers in China have been delaying shipments due to the bird flu problems in the country and reduced animal feed demand. These delays could make more DDGS available for export and could help to push prices lower. So for DDGS it looks like the export market may see some softness in prices in order to get some product moving but then if the domestic demand stays good, the stocks that could go for export will just be sold in the domestic market.
There was a comment in the US Grains Council report this week that there is a shortage of vessel space and containers for shipments from the USA East Coast and this could increase prices and slow delivery of corn co-products from a couple of East Coast companies that specialize in export container shipments.
Export corn gluten meal prices were a little lower this week but corn gluten feed prices seemed to take a small step higher. One trade expert did say that CGM prices were artificially low due to the higher aflatoxin level this year and the limited feed use in some export destinations --- buyers want a better price for taking CGM with slightly higher aflatoxin levels. This trade expert did say that he is shipping 50ppb aflatoxin to buyers in Asia but that they expect lower prices compared with the more standard 20ppb product.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 530/535 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 520/550 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 740/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 675/690 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1150/1170 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 1140/1160 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 465/480 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 650/670 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 540/550 m/t |
In the USA there seemed to be some downward pressure on domestic animal protein prices which was reported to be due to very good stocks of proteins on hand but lower demand. With USA domestic prices the market can change quite quickly due to supply and demand changes in the country but for export buyers the changes come much more slowly and many of the weekly gyrations in the domestic market never change export prices. The biggest driver in export prices at present is the price of alternative protein like soymeal and corn gluten meal and with these prices continuing to slide lower there has been a lot of pressure on animal protein export prices.
The Jacobsen report this week was saying that due to the weather in the USA for crop planting there may be a switch by some farmers from corn to soybeans which could cause soybean/soymeal prices to drop further and put additional pressure on all protein prices.
In the Asia markets there was weakness in MBM prices out of Australia but both feathermeal and poultry meal were higher in most Asia markets. Experts seem to feel that the current quite high price level in Asia is heading for some weakness in the near future.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Most of the important people in the fishmeal/fishoil business have been in Miami, Florida this week for the IFFO meeting – so far no news from the meetings as everyone is just heading home. There has also been no announcement from Peru on the fishing quota for the next season but the announcement can not be too far away as the normal fishing season is almost upon us.
There was quite a negative article in the press this week about fishmeal and the ability of fisherman in Peru to get around the rules on catch quantities and fish size. The article says that although most small fisherman seem to be avoiding the rules they don't have the same effect as when the major fishmeal producers cheat on the catch, which this article seems to think happens all the time.
One significant figure from the news story is the 28 percent drop in the size of the anchovy biomass in recent years. The writer strongly supports the Peru government in its efforts to control fishing and allow the stocks to rebuild – something that, like cod stocks, could take many years.
If the direction stated in the article is followed by the Peruvian government then we could be in for several years of lower fishing quota and resulting lower production and higher prices.
As for now there is little change in fishmeal prices with nothing to sell and buyers sitting and waiting.
I will have more to report next week once there are some details on the discussions in the trade meeting in Miami.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1630/1640 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1670/1680 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1740/1750 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2060/2070 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2080/2100 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2120/2130 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2650/2700 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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