Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 07, 2013
France: Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
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Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
I guess that you could say last week was quite bit quieter than the week before and perhaps much of this was due to the Monday holiday and the fact that all the weak players had sold/bought out of their riskiest positions prior to the weekend.
The futures market was down almost everyday last week for corn with only Friday being able to move just a little higher. Even the drop in corn crop condition was not enough to push corn prices higher and the condition is expected to drop off a little more for this week's report. There are a couple of USDA reports coming out in September but these are really "fill-in" reports and no one is expecting anything much exciting from these reports. But then the USDA can always surprise us all. Informa issued their estimates this week and they have decreased their corn yields slightly but not enough to get the market excited – they decreased the yield but increased the overall production slightly. Contrary to Informa, some experts are saying that the USDA will increase corn yields in this weeks report but this is all just guessing.
Experts are also back looking at the corn weather in Argentina and find that the ground is very dry and there is some speculation that farmers could reduce corn plantings and switch some to soybeans due to the dry conditions. We will have to wait a while to know on this.
As to prices – everyone seems to be expecting lower corn prices in coming days unless there is some major new information to push prices higher.
Soybeans and soymeal both had an up week as there seemed to be new concerns for the US weather coming from all the soybean areas of the US – too hot, too dry, too cold, too wet. It is getting a little late in the crop year for additional rain to do much for dry areas and a lot of the concern seems to be for a sudden change to very cold weather that could damage the soybean crop before it has finished maturing. The trade expects that the crop condition report on Monday could be down by 3 or 5 points from last week – this should help to push soy prices higher as the week starts.
It looks like the markets may be a little calm next week as no one wants to make any sudden position changes prior to the USDA report on Thursday the 12th.
Also, as mentioned with corn, eyes are turning south to Argentina and Brazil where the new seasons plantings are about to start and stories, rumours and weather in South America are about to become a major factor in prices.
| USA crop condition Report 2013 Aug 26 | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Excellent % |
| Corn | 5 | 11 | 28 | 42 | 14 |
| Last year | 26 | 26 | 26 | 19 | 3 |
| | | | | | |
| Soybeans | 4 | 11 | 31 | 43 | 11 |
| Last year | 16 | 21 | 33 | 26 | 4 |
| | | | | | |
| Sorghum | 3 | 11 | 32 | 45 | 9 |
| Last year | 26 | 26 | 26 | 19 | 3 |
| | | | | | |
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 268/275 Sep/Nov |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 314/316 Sep/Nov |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t | USD 237/242 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 250/252 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 290/305 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 228/232 |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 190/200 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 236/238 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/240 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 235/240 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 229>>219 Sep>>Nov |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 278>>235 Sep>>Nov |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 223/227 Sep/Nov |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/194 Sep/Oct |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t | USD 235>>205 Sep>>new crop |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 227/229 Sep/Oct/Nov |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 245/247 Sep/Nov |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 185/bid 175 Oct/Nov/Dec |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 548>>535 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 605>>575 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 590>>575 Spot>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 525>>516 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 590>>558 Spot>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 518>>513 Sep>>Oct/Nov |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 520/530 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/675 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 195/200 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 291>>270 m/t Sep>>Nov |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 336/340 Oct/Nov |
There is not quite as much spread in DDGS prices between old crop and new crop this week and with most export buyers looking at new crop there could be enough demand to push the new crop prices a little higher. Major buyers have been holding off buying DDGS due to the high prices but seems that there is now a good spot of interest in Oct/Dec export shipments, especially if there is money to be saved. Also, in the US there seems to be quite good domestic demand for DDGS due to the tight soymeal supply and the USD 40 m/t premium for old crop soymeal. With the level of protein that one sees in DDGS it is easy to understand how it can replace a little soymeal, although the fiber levels may be too high for some feed uses.
Corn gluten meal export business has been quite good and it looks like we not going to see much lower price levels for now – CGM seems to have found a good export price level and it is probably going to take a change either in corn prices or general protein prices to start a new trend with CGM – but, the most likely new trend at present looks to be to higher levels as prices just don't seem to want to go any lower.
As to corn gluten feed, the year to date export numbers are up very strongly on last year with Ireland taking more in 7 months than in all of 2012, Turkey is also well ahead of last years GMO reduced numbers while Israel is running a little behind 2012 – these three countries alone account for close to 70 percent of the CGF exports.
As to CGF prices, about the same as every week – where corn goes CGF will normally follow quite closely
USA exports of corn by-products and soymeal – Jan/July 2013 – in m/t
Major importers only
| | Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS | Soybean Meal |
| Canada | | 34,800 | 319,600 | 493,500 |
| Chile | | 80,400 | | |
| China | | | 1,725,700 | |
| Columbia | | 29,300 | 45,200 | 225,400 |
| Denmark | | | | 193,500 |
| Dominican Rep. | | | | 164,100 |
| Ecuador | | | | 215,300 |
| Egypt | 25,100 | 83,900 | 88,700 | 223,800 |
| Guatemala | | | | 155,800 |
| Indonesia | | 157,400 | 133,500 | |
| Ireland | 191,600 | | 139,200 | 86,700 |
| Israel | 78,700 | 20,136 | 86,200 | |
| Japan | | 23,600 | 232,200 | |
| Malaysia | | 41,700 | 28,200 | |
| Mexico | | 45,700 | 704,800 | 337,300 |
| Morocco | 32,100 | | 71,900 | 156,700 |
| Poland | | | | 199,500 |
| Portugal | 20,200 | | | |
| South Korea | | | 213,000 | |
| Spain | 22,000 | | | |
| Taiwan | | | 134,100 | |
| Thailand | | | 154,600 | |
| Turkey | 110,200 | | 223,900 | 227,200 |
| UK | | | 39,700 | |
| Venezuela | | | | 409,700 |
| Vietnam | | | 245,200 | 126,300 |
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 610/620 mt CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia USD 890/910 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/900 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 530/550 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 700/710 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 560/580 m/t |
There was little or no change in USA domestic prices this week, except perhaps a little weakness in poultrymeal due to heavy supplies. The USA export prices did not seem to change at all so that prices to Asian buyers from the USA were just about the same as last week. It is also reported that there was very little if any change with prices from Australia and New Zealand with only a little possible weakness in feathermeal prices.
Very low MBM prices from Europe are said to be putting pressure on those markets that buy European product and the European prices just seem to get a little lower every week. One shipper mentioned that there is more availability at present due to a drop in shipments to Vietnam buyers.
One trade report was saying this week that the USA will have more animal proteins available for export as their domestic market is using "all-vegetable feeding" as a supermarket selling feature for the buyers and it looks like some retail buyers do see this as a positive factor for poultry and egg purchase decisions. Of course with DDGS prices dropping it is not too difficult to use DDGS and a handful of amino acids, etc in order to avoid higher priced animal protein.
A USA trade report this week has suggested that there could be some room for US animal protein prices to move a little lower due to stocks building in the USA.
USA exports of animal protein – Jan/July 2013 – in m/t
Major importers only
| | Meat and bone meal Incl. pork and poultry | Feathermeal |
| Canada | 24,800 | 3,600 |
| Chile | | 32,200 |
| China | 14,100 | |
| Germany | | 1,300 |
| Guatemala | 6,400 | |
| Indonesia | 23,800 | 68,900 |
| Mexico | 20,300 | |
| Philippines | 22,000 | |
| Thailand | 9,500 | |
| Vietnam | | 4,400 |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It looks like the drop in prices in Peru last week has attracted quite a bit of interest as business seemed reasonable brisk and experts day that we are now almost totally out of the old stock and booking business for the new season. Hard to know exactly how much is booked for the new season but estimates range from 40k m/t as high as 100k m/t – the 100k is probably a tad enthusiastic an estimate. Also, on stocks, it looks like the remaining supplies are in the southern ports, which are always much more difficult to access, so getting any supply is not too easy.
MSI Ceres mention in their report this week that buyers are trucking fishmeal from the south to Callao due to the difficulties in shipping from the south --- needless to say they are paying lower prices to southern sellers.
As to prices, it is very difficult to know what the actual prices are today as southern Peru prices are low but new season prices are moving higher due to the rush of demand. However buyers do not want to pay too much, just in case the new quota is at the top end of the estimates and prices come tumbling down. Still a little time to wait until we hear what the actual quota level will be.
Needless to say the producers are not telling anyone what price they have booked the new business at or if they are telling once can assume that they will inflate their selling price.
It was interesting to read, that the IFFO estimates that 35 percent of all fishmeal produced is made from trimmings and by-products.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| 65 protein standard steam | 1340/1350 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1360/1370 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1370/1380 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1390/1400 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1420/1430 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 1900/1950 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2000/2050 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
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