Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 02, 2013
France: Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Quite a down week this week for all grains and oilseeds – one would be very hard pressed to find any prices in the USA (except corn gluten meal) that actually moved higher.
While corn prices were lower on the week, by about USD 5 m/t, it looks like corn will move in an up 5 down 5 price range until we see the next USDA crop report next week. All the experts seem to be expecting the USDA to increase the 2013 corn yield and probably the overall world corn production with the dryness situation in Argentina seeming to have been overcome. At present things look quite good for the start of the Argentina corn crop.
The corn harvest situation in the Ukraine is not quite as good as expected with the harvest still being at about 65% of the crop and with winter weather very close it may be that not all of the corn can be harvested before the snow falls. If the Ukraine is not able to harvest all the corn as forecasted it may just be that the Black Sea corn supply will be much lower than expected over the next three months or so. This could increase export demand for USA corn to North African destinations.
Looking again at corn and next weeks USDA report, experts feel that there is little reason for corn prices to move higher as yields should increase, as should ending stock levels. We are probably in for a period of very low corn prices. USA corn at around USD 200 m/t FOB NOLA looks quite attractive, one wonders how much lower it could go.
Soybeans and soymeal had a strong down week this week as everyone is looking for the USDA report to show higher USA production and probably higher production levels in South America. Most experts are looking for higher soybean yields and higher ending stocks – both of which are bearish for prices.
The last soybean harvest report showed the harvest at 77% but this is expected to be close to 90% when we get the new numbers on Monday. One thing about USA farmers is that they can certainly harvest almost anything at record speed, as long as they have some decent harvest weather.
I was talking to a farmer last week, he was bringing me up to date on how technology has changed the harvest. He was telling me that his new combine analyzes the moisture content of the harvest and will leave rows behind that are too moist. He also said that the combine calculates field and overall crop yield. Being a trader and not a farmer, I am always amazed by the advances of technology in farming. I guess that no one much uses oxen these days.
USA crop harvest progress – percentage harvested
| | 2013 % | 2012% | Average% |
| Corn | 59.0 | 91.0 | 62.0 |
| Soybeans | 77.0 | 86.0 | 77.0 |
| Sorghum | 65.0 | 64.0 | 60.0 |
| | | | |
I have added in some freight information this week. Most of the information is biased toward areas of my interest – Middle East and North Africa – but hopefully it will be of some value to all.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t
| US Gulf to Europe – 60/70,000 | $25.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt – Panamax | $37.00 |
| US Gulf other Med – 25,000 MT | $39/42.00 |
| US Gulf Israel – 50,000 MT | $38.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco – 25,000 | $40/42.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey – 50,000 | $39.00 |
| US PNW – Asia – 45,000 m/t | $35.00 |
| US PNW – Japan – 50,000+ m/t | $33.00 |
| France to Algeria – 25,000 m/t | $25.00 |
| France to Saudi Arabia – 60,000 m/t | $30.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt – 50,000 | $38.00 |
| Argentina to Algeria – 25/30,000 m/t | $36.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco – 25,000 | $35.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $48.00 |
| Brazil to Algeria – 25,000 m/t | $32.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt – 50,000 m/t | $30.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $27.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $40.00 |
| Black Sea to Spain – 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med – 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med -- coaster | $25/26.00 |
FOB port or location specified.. Prices in US$.. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 286/288 Nov/Jan |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 332/336 Nov/Jan |
| Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000+ m/t | USD 284/287 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 275/277 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 352/355 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 265/270 |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 190/205 |
| | |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 248/250 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 224/229 Jan/Feb new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea – 30,000+ | USD 240/245 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 208>>203 Dec>>Jan |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 241>>239 Nov>>Jan |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 213/219 Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 191/196 Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000+ m/t | USD 207>>200 Spot>>Nov/Dec |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 234/240 Oct/Nov |
| | |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 229/230 Nov/Jan |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD 191/204 Nov/Jan |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 523>>503 Nov>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 577>>550 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 563>>544 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 514/516 Nov/Dec |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 566>>530 Spot>>Jan 2014 |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 509/512 Nov/Dec |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 550/560 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 760/780 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 m/t |
| | |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285>>277 m/t Nov>>Jan |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 343>>336 Nov/Jan |
While DDGS prices have moved lower in the USA it is difficult to get much in the way of quotations on export business in container until 2014 as most of the companies that specialize in bulk container loading and exporting are fully booked into 2014 – some are full into February. There also seems to be a shortage of available containers, at least of low cost back haul containers into Asia. Most producers/exporters will no longer offer any 2013 shipments but are quite happy to talk about the first quarter of 2014 and perhaps even the second quarter. With corn at current very low price levels, export buyers are quite happy to book shipments further out as they don't see a great deal of possibilities for prices to move lower in 2014.
Corn gluten meal continues to run higher very quickly, even with lower overall protein prices, this strictly a matter of available supply for 2013 and into early 2014. There just doesn't seem to be enough CGM around at present to meet the demand and prices are being pushed higher and higher. Hard to know how long the high prices will last, as every time the prices jump another USD 10 m/t another buyer looks at protein alternatives.
Corn gluten feed was up a very little this week, which also is a little bit of a supply situation but once we get all this very low cost corn into the process then we should see some weakness in CGF and CGM prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD sorry no updated prices this week |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe MBM 50 protein | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 480/500 mt CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/690 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 410/430 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 550/570 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 500/520 m/t |
There were quite a few reports of lower animal protein prices in Asia this week – in particular on shipments from Europe. Buyers in lower cost markets, like Vietnam and Bangladesh, are said to have been buying from Europe at USD 370 for 45 pro for December but bidding at USD 350 m/t for January. Looks like the USD 25 m/t drop in soymeal prices has had a major effect on animal protein prices.
USA west coast export prices were quite a bit lower too, as exports to Asia were having to fight against buyers lower price ideas. The domestic animal protein business in the USA was also under pressure from lower soymeal prices but domestic prices have not moved lower as yet but will certainly drop if the slide in soymeal continues into next week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is still almost no news in the Peruvian fishmeal market as the new season is almost upon us and buyers are all either fully booked for early positions or just waiting to see what the fishing situation looks to be.
There is nothing much in news from the IFFO conference, except for a few press reports on presentations that were made at the conference – but so far nothing earth shattering. Hopefully the news from the conference will be much more detailed by next week.
As to prices, the general feeling is that prices have moved up a little, say USD 10 m/t, but this may just be because of the very small number of prices that one can find in the Peru market at present.
We need to get everyone back in their offices after the trip to Asia and see some reports on business that may have been done at the conference or perhaps not done.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| 65 protein | 1310/1320 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1340/1350 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1370/1380 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1390/1400 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1440/1450 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1460/1470 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 1850/1900 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2050/2100 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2000/2050 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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